Weather in San Miguel de Cozumel

14-day forecast · updated today, Thursday, October 29, at 4:28 am (EST)

Now · clear 72 °F

Feels like: 77 °F
Low / high: 72 / 85 °F
Rain: 96% · 0.21 in
Wind: 6 mph WNW

↘ 29.89 inHg · falling UV 9 · very high

Today in San Miguel de Cozumel: light showers, 72 °F to 85 °F, with a 96% chance of rain (0.21 in) and a light breeze from the west-northwest (6 mph). Tomorrow, light drizzle, 73 °F to 85 °F and a 33% chance of rain. The warmest day of the week is Wednesday 4, at 87 °F. Next likely rain: Sunday 1 (52%).

Temperatures for the next 14 days

85° 72°
Today
85° 73°
Fri 30
86° 75°
Sat 31
86° 72°
Sun 1
85° 71°
Mon 2
85° 72°
Tue 3
87° 74°
Wed 4
87° 71°
Thu 5
85° 67°
Fri 6
85° 64°
Sat 7
83° 71°
Sun 8
82° 74°
Mon 9
77° 73°
Tue 10
80° 73°
Wed 11

Day by day

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind	Max wave	Model
Today · 29	Light showers	72 / 85 °F	96% · 0.21 in	7 mph WNW	1.0 ft	ECMWF
Fri 30	Light drizzle	73 / 85 °F	33% · 0.02 in	7 mph ESE	0.6 ft	ECMWF
Sat 31	Light drizzle	75 / 86 °F	22% · 0.02 in	9 mph ESE	0.6 ft	ECMWF
Sun 1	Drizzle	72 / 86 °F	52% · 0.11 in	6 mph N	0.4 ft	ECMWF
Mon 2	Drizzle	71 / 85 °F	63% · 0.15 in	5 mph NNW	0.4 ft	ECMWF
Tue 3	Light drizzle	72 / 85 °F	46% · 0.05 in	6 mph E	0.4 ft	ECMWF
Wed 4	Drizzle	74 / 87 °F	41% · 0.14 in	6 mph SE	0.5 ft	ECMWF
Thu 5	Drizzle	71 / 87 °F	65% · 0.26 in	6 mph W	0.4 ft	ECMWF
Fri 6	Partly cloudy	67 / 85 °F	47%	9 mph NW	1.6 ft	ECMWF
Sat 7	Partly cloudy	64 / 85 °F	31%	7 mph N	1.4 ft	ECMWF
Sun 8	Partly cloudy	71 / 83 °F	31%	8 mph NE	1.4 ft	ECMWF
Mon 9	Heavy drizzle	74 / 82 °F	30% · 0.50 in	9 mph NE	1.8 ft	ECMWF
Tue 10	Heavy drizzle	73 / 77 °F	25% · 0.71 in	5 mph NNE	1.2 ft	ECMWF
Wed 11	Drizzle	73 / 80 °F	36% · 0.39 in	5 mph N	1.0 ft	ECMWF

Each day comes from the best model covering this spot: regional ones first (HRRR and NBM in the U.S., AROME, ICON-EU), then ECMWF; day 16, NOAA GFS. Waves: Météo-France up to day 10, then ECMWF WAM, coarser and further offshore.

Today, every 3 hours

Time	12:00 am	3:00 am	6:00 am	9:00 am	12:00 pm	3:00 pm	6:00 pm	9:00 pm
Sky	Clear	Clear	Clear	Mainly clear	Light drizzle	Light showers	Light drizzle	Partly cloudy
Temperature	72°	72°	72°	79°	85°	80°	76°	74°
Chance of rain	0%	4%	5%	0%	50%	94%	78%	20%
Rain	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.06 in	0.01 in	0.00 in
Wind (mph)	6 WNW	7 WNW	6 WNW	6 NW	2 NNE	3 SE	1 W	3 WNW
Humidity	89%	88%	90%	80%	68%	86%	99%	99%
UV	0	0	0	2	9	4	0	0
Model	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF

Do the models agree?

Medium confidence

They broadly agree, but not quite on rain today: take it with some caution.

What 4 forecast models say for the next few days. The closer they are, the more reliable the forecast.

HighRainWind

Do the models agree? · High
High (°F)	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF	85°	85°	86°	86°	85°	85°	87°
AIFS	83°	83°	84°	85°	85°	85°	85°
GFS	85°	79°	85°	87°	87°	85°	86°
ICON	83°	83°	87°	85°	86°	87°	87°
Confidence	high	medium	high	high	high	high	high

Do the models agree? · Rain
Rain	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF	0.21 in	0.02 in	0.02 in	0.11 in	0.15 in	0.05 in	0.14 in
AIFS	0.13 in	0.09 in	0.08 in	0.04 in	0.07 in	0.03 in	0.09 in
GFS	0.07 in	0.13 in	0	0	0.06 in	0	0
ICON	0.03 in	0.01 in	0.00 in	0.01 in	0.02 in	0.02 in	0.02 in
Confidence	medium	medium	medium	medium	medium	medium	medium

Do the models agree? · Wind
Wind (mph)	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF	714	719	921	619	518	617	618
AIFS	9	8	7	5	5	4	5
GFS	816	69	79	712	611	88	66
ICON	816	918	614	613	614	612	614
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	high	high

Chance of rain from the ensemble models

Model	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF (51 scenarios)	96%	33%	22%	52%	63%	46%	41%
GFS (GEFS, 31 scenarios)	84%	61%	13%	32%	35%	13%	48%

Each model's day runs midnight to midnight local time; models that reach fewer days are left blank. Rain: daily total. Wind: the day's highest average wind and, in small type, the strongest gust. Highlighted: values that stand out from the rest. The chance of rain comes from many runs of the same model with slightly different starting data.

Outlook

How the coming weeks and months compare with what is normal for the time of year. It is a trend, not a day-by-day forecast.

Next few weeks, compared with normal: a bit warmer, a bit drier and a slightly warmer sea.

Next 6 weeks

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea	Typical high / low
Nov 2 – Nov 8Nov 2–Nov 8	A bit above +1.6 °F	Below −60%	A bit above +1.1 °F	—
Nov 9 – Nov 15Nov 9–Nov 15	Normal +0.4 °F	Normal	A bit above +0.9 °F	—
Nov 16 – Nov 22Nov 16–Nov 22	A bit above +1.1 °F	Normal	A bit above +0.9 °F	81° / 79°
Nov 23 – Nov 29Nov 23–Nov 29	A bit above +1.3 °F	Normal	A bit above +1.3 °F	81° / 79°
Nov 30 – Dec 6Nov 30–Dec 6	A bit above +1.1 °F	Normal	A bit above +1.3 °F	81° / 79°

Coming months

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea
November	A bit above +1.8 °F	Normal	A bit above +1.6 °F
December	A bit above +1.3 °F	Normal	A bit above +1.6 °F
January	Normal +0.7 °F	Normal	A bit above +1.4 °F
February	A bit above +1.1 °F	Normal	A bit above +1.4 °F
March	A bit above +1.1 °F	A bit above +35%	A bit above +1.4 °F

Weeks: ECMWF 46-day (average of its scenarios), against the normal of the last 20 years for those dates. Months: ECMWF SEAS5. Rain: total against normal. The further ahead, the closer it gets to normal and the less detail it can give.

San Miguel de Cozumel climate by monthClimate by month

Normal weather for each month (1991–2020 averages)

The best time to visit San Miguel de Cozumel is from February to March: highs of 84 °F to 85 °F, about 5 rainy days a month and 8 hours of sunshine a day.

Hurricane season: in July and in October, peaking in October. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 17 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of San Miguel de Cozumel, about 6 every 10 years; 10 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Helene, in September 2024.

82° 67°

JanJ
84° 69°

FebF
85° 70°

MarM
88° 73°

AprA
90° 76°

MayM
90° 77°

JunJ
91° 77°

JulJ
91° 77°

AugA
90° 76°

SepS
88° 74°

OctO
85° 71°

NovN
83° 69°

DecD

Highs and lows
Monthly rainfall
Best time

Month	High	Low	Rain	Rainy daysDays	Sun (h/day)	Water	Waves	Cyclones
JanuaryJan	82°	67°	2.70 in	8	6.4	80°	2.6 ft	–
FebruaryFeb	84°	69°	1.58 in	5	7.4	80°	2.6 ft	–
MarchMar	85°	70°	0.91 in	4	7.7	80°	2.6 ft	–
AprilApr	88°	73°	2.01 in	4	7.3	81°	2.4 ft	–
MayMay	90°	76°	3.73 in	9	7.6	82°	2.3 ft	–
JuneJun	90°	77°	6.45 in	14	7.0	83°	2.5 ft	–
JulyJul	91°	77°	3.07 in	12	7.9	84°	1.9 ft	4
AugustAug	91°	77°	4.58 in	15	7.2	85°	1.9 ft	2
SeptemberSep	90°	76°	7.53 in	20	7.0	85°	1.7 ft	1
OctoberOct	88°	74°	10.78 in	17	6.2	84°	2.0 ft	9
NovemberNov	85°	71°	4.78 in	10	6.6	83°	2.3 ft	1
DecemberDec	83°	69°	3.23 in	8	6.4	81°	2.5 ft	–

Month	Water	Waves	Cyclones
Jan	80°	2.6 ft	–
Feb	80°	2.6 ft	–
Mar	80°	2.6 ft	–
Apr	81°	2.4 ft	–
May	82°	2.3 ft	–
Jun	83°	2.5 ft	–
Jul	84°	1.9 ft	4
Aug	85°	1.9 ft	2
Sep	85°	1.7 ft	1
Oct	84°	2.0 ft	9
Nov	83°	2.3 ft	1
Dec	81°	2.5 ft	–

Days: rainy days in the month. Sun: hours a day.

A normal year brings 51.34 in of rain on about 125 days and about 2,600 hours of sunshine.

Cyclones: how many tropical cyclones (tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) passed within 93 mi in each month from 1996 to 2025, according to IBTrACS (NOAA).

1991–2020 averages. Highs, lows and rainfall: TerraClimate; rainy days (0.04 in or more): NASA POWER (MERRA-2); sunshine hours: estimated from solar radiation; water: NOAA OISST; waves (average height): ERA5, 2011–2020. Normals are not a forecast: any given year can turn out very different. Sources and licenses

Temperature

Now72 °Ffeels like 77 °F

Tomorrow73 / 85 °F

It's 72 °F now (feels like 77 °F). Today, 72 °F to 85 °F; tomorrow, 73 °F to 85 °F.

Chance of rain

Today 96% 0.21 in
Fri 30 33% 0.02 in
Sat 31 22% 0.02 in
Sun 1 52% 0.11 in
Mon 2 63% 0.15 in
Tue 3 46% 0.05 in
Wed 4 41% 0.14 in

Today the chance of rain reaches 96%, with 0.21 in in total. The next day with likely rain is Sunday 1: 52% and 0.11 in.

Recent rain: last 24 hours, 0.00 in; last 3 days, 0.27 in; last 7 days, 0.41 in.

Humidity and dew point

Humidity88%

Dew point68 °F

Humidity is 88% now and the dew point is 68 °F. With a dew point this high, it feels muggy.

The dew point is the temperature at which the air becomes saturated: the higher it is, the heavier the air feels.

Visibility and fog

Now15 migood

Clouds15%

Visibility is good now (15 mi). No fog expected today.

The model gives visibility up to about 15 mi: beyond that, the horizon is clear.

UV index

Now0

Today's peak9very high

Fri 30: 8 · Sat 31: 8 · Sun 1: 8

Index	Level	What to do
0–2	low	No special protection needed.
3–5	moderate	Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.
6–7	high	Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.
8–10	very high	Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.
11+	extreme	Avoid the sun between 11 am and 5 pm; protect yourself even if it is cloudy.

Reflection off water and sand adds radiation: protect yourself more on a boat or at the beach.

Barometric pressure

↗ Rising Anglers say fish bite less for a while
→ Steady Anglers expect normal activity
↘ Falling · now Anglers say fish feed more before the change

29.8029.9030.00 29.94

Falling now (−0.03 inHg in 3 hours). It barely changes over the next 48 hours. Falling pressure: anglers say fish feed more before the change. Fast changes, either way, tend to affect fishing.

Air and pollen

Air qualityFair · 27

Saharan dustNo

Previous days

The weather over the last 30 days, as the models analyzed it. Tap a day to see it hour by hour.

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Wed 28	Mainly clear	70 / 87 °F	0	8 mph NNW
Tue 27	Drizzle	72 / 85 °F	0.14 in	10 mph N
Mon 26	Drizzle	70 / 81 °F	0.13 in	9 mph NNW
Sun 25	Light drizzle	71 / 87 °F	0.04 in	9 mph N
Sat 24	Light drizzle	71 / 87 °F	0.03 in	9 mph N
Fri 23	Light drizzle	69 / 84 °F	0.05 in	10 mph N
Thu 22	Light drizzle	72 / 85 °F	0.04 in	10 mph NNE

Show all 30 days

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Wed 21	Drizzle	76 / 86 °F	0.19 in	10 mph NNE
Tue 20	Heavy drizzle	75 / 86 °F	0.26 in	11 mph NE
Mon 19	Light showers	76 / 84 °F	0.31 in	7 mph NNE
Sun 18	Light drizzle	74 / 84 °F	0.08 in	6 mph NNE
Sat 17	Heavy drizzle	75 / 81 °F	0.54 in	9 mph NE
Fri 16	Thunderstorm	76 / 78 °F	1.83 in	12 mph ESE
Thu 15	Showers	75 / 86 °F	1.33 in	10 mph ENE
Wed 14	Light drizzle	76 / 89 °F	0.20 in	9 mph NE
Tue 13	Light drizzle	75 / 89 °F	0.06 in	12 mph NE
Mon 12	Light drizzle	78 / 89 °F	0.11 in	10 mph NE
Sun 11	Light showers	76 / 88 °F	0.38 in	8 mph E
Sat 10	Light drizzle	79 / 91 °F	0.04 in	9 mph SSE
Fri 9	Light drizzle	76 / 89 °F	0.04 in	9 mph SSW
Thu 8	Thunderstorm	76 / 87 °F	0.42 in	13 mph S
Wed 7	Light drizzle	80 / 88 °F	0.04 in	10 mph SSE
Tue 6	Light drizzle	80 / 88 °F	0.13 in	8 mph ESE
Mon 5	Light drizzle	79 / 89 °F	0.05 in	9 mph E
Sun 4	Drizzle	77 / 88 °F	0.24 in	10 mph ESE
Sat 3	Drizzle	76 / 86 °F	0.19 in	8 mph ESE
Fri 2	Thunderstorm	76 / 87 °F	1.49 in	12 mph SE
Thu 1	Heavy drizzle	76 / 84 °F	0.45 in	9 mph SE
Wed 30	Light showers	74 / 83 °F	0.59 in	9 mph ESE
Tue 29	Thunderstorm	76 / 83 °F	1.27 in	10 mph ESE

These are the models at the start of each day (ECMWF and GFS; waves from Météo-France), not readings from a weather station: there can be differences at specific spots.

Questions about the weather in San Miguel de CozumelQuestions

What's the weather like today in San Miguel de Cozumel?

Light showers, from 72 °F to 85 °F, with a light breeze from the west-northwest (6 mph) and a 96% chance of rain.

Will it rain tomorrow in San Miguel de Cozumel?

On Friday 30 the chance of rain is 33% (0.02 in): light drizzle.

How warm will it be this week?

Between a low of 71 °F and a high of 87 °F; the warmest day, Wednesday 4.

What's the UV index today?

It reaches 9 (very high). Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.

Is the pressure rising or falling?

It's 29.89 inHg and falling: −0.06 inHg over the last 24 hours.

When is the best time to visit San Miguel de Cozumel?

The best time to visit San Miguel de Cozumel is from February to March: highs of 84 °F to 85 °F, about 5 rainy days a month and 8 hours of sunshine a day.

What is the weather like in San Miguel de Cozumel in October?

In October, San Miguel de Cozumel normally sees highs of 88 °F and lows of 74 °F, with about 17 rainy days (10.78 in for the month) and 6 hours of sunshine a day. The sea is around 84 °F. These are 1991–2020 averages.

What are the warmest and wettest months in San Miguel de Cozumel?

The warmest is August, with average highs of 91 °F, and the coldest January, with lows of 67 °F. The wettest is October (10.78 in) and the driest, March.

When is hurricane season in San Miguel de Cozumel?

Hurricane season: in July and in October, peaking in October. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 17 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of San Miguel de Cozumel, about 6 every 10 years; 10 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Helene, in September 2024.

More about San Miguel de Cozumel today

Weather near San Miguel de Cozumel

Only places with a different forecast: spots a few miles apart share the same model cell and wouldn't add anything.

Learn more

Weather: Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0, with the best model for each spot and lead time (NOAA HRRR and NBM in the U.S., Météo-France AROME, DWD ICON-EU, ECMWF IFS and NOAA GFS); ECMWF grid point 18 mi away. The comparison also uses ICON (DWD), AIFS (ECMWF) and ARPEGE (Météo-France). Outlook: ECMWF 46-day and SEAS5. Chance of rain from ensemble models (ECMWF, GEFS and NBM). UV, air quality and pollen: CAMS (Copernicus).

Forecast from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) with models from ECMWF, NOAA, Météo-France, DWD, Copernicus Marine and CAMS. Updated at 4:28 am (local time).

Spotted a mistake? Tell us · Where the weather and sea data come from