Weather in Duck Key

14-day forecast · updated today, Wednesday, October 28, at 7:57 pm (EDT)

Now · clear 77 °F

Feels like: 83 °F
Low / high: 75 / 78 °F
Rain: 12%
Wind: 12 mph NE

↗ 29.91 inHg · rising UV 7 · high

Today in Duck Key: light drizzle, 75 °F to 78 °F, with a 12% chance of rain and a moderate breeze from the northeast (12 mph). Tomorrow, light drizzle, 76 °F to 82 °F and a 6% chance of rain. The warmest day of the week is Saturday 31, at 82 °F. Next likely rain: Friday 30 (20%).

Measured now at the airport

Marathon (KMTH), 9.1 mi away · 1 h 4 min ago

Visibility9.9 mi or more

WeatherNothing to note

Temperature82 °F

Wind8 mph from the east-northeast

It's what the airport's weather station measured, not a forecast: on the coast, wind and fog can be different. Airports report every 30 or 60 minutes.

Airport METAR report, via NOAA's Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov). Sources and licenses

Temperatures for the next 14 days

78° 75°
Today
82° 76°
Thu 29
82° 77°
Fri 30
82° 79°
Sat 31
81° 78°
Sun 1
80° 77°
Mon 2
81° 76°
Tue 3
81° 77°
Wed 4
81° 77°
Thu 5
80° 76°
Fri 6
78° 75°
Sat 7
78° 74°
Sun 8
76° 73°
Mon 9
76° 74°
Tue 10

Day by day

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind	Max wave	High tides	Model
Today · 28	Light drizzle	75 / 78 °F	12%	20 mph NNE	3.3 ft	11:32 am · 10:42 pm	HRRR
Thu 29	Light drizzle	76 / 82 °F	6% · 0.01 in	14 mph NNE	2.5 ft	12:26 pm · 11:34 pm	HRRR + NBM
Fri 30	Light drizzle	77 / 82 °F	20% · 0.10 in	13 mph NE	2.0 ft	1:25 pm	NBM
Sat 31	Heavy drizzle	79 / 82 °F	23%	13 mph ENE	1.7 ft	12:33 am · 2:32 pm	NBM
Sun 1	Drizzle	78 / 81 °F	36% · 0.06 in	13 mph ENE	2.5 ft	1:43 am · 2:45 pm	NBM
Mon 2	Light showers	77 / 80 °F	36% · 0.05 in	11 mph NE	3.3 ft	2:06 am · 3:49 pm	NBM
Tue 3	Light drizzle	76 / 81 °F	12% · 0.01 in	12 mph N	3.1 ft	3:34 am · 4:39 pm	NBM
Wed 4	Light drizzle	77 / 81 °F	9%	9 mph ENE	2.1 ft	4:52 am · 5:20 pm	NBM
Thu 5	Light drizzle	77 / 81 °F	11%	9 mph S	0.8 ft	5:57 am · 5:56 pm	NBM
Fri 6	Drizzle	76 / 80 °F	16%	10 mph NNW	3.1 ft	6:52 am · 6:30 pm	NBM
Sat 7	Light drizzle	75 / 78 °F	10% · 0.02 in	12 mph NNE	1.9 ft	7:40 am · 7:03 pm	NBM
Sun 8	Mainly clear	74 / 78 °F	19% · 0.01 in	14 mph NNE	1.6 ft	8:23 am · 7:35 pm	NBM + ECMWF
Mon 9	Clear sky	73 / 76 °F	22%	16 mph NNW	1.4 ft	9:03 am · 8:07 pm	ECMWF
Tue 10	Overcast	74 / 76 °F	25%	11 mph N	1.0 ft	9:40 am · 8:41 pm	ECMWF

Each hour comes from the best model for this spot: HRRR until Thursday 29 2:00 pm; then NBM until Sunday 8 2:00 pm; then ECMWF until Thursday 12 10:00 am; then GFS.

Each day comes from the best model covering this spot: regional ones first (HRRR and NBM in the U.S., AROME, ICON-EU), then ECMWF; day 16, NOAA GFS. Waves: Météo-France up to day 10, then ECMWF WAM, coarser and further offshore. High tides: our own tide calculation.

Today, every 3 hours

Time	12:00 am	3:00 am	6:00 am	9:00 am	12:00 pm	3:00 pm	6:00 pm	9:00 pm
Sky	Light drizzle	Light drizzle	Light drizzle	Light drizzle	Mainly clear	Clear sky	Clear sky	Clear
Temperature	75°	76°	77°	77°	77°	78°	77°	77°
Chance of rain	3%	2%	7%	2%	1%	1%	1%	6%
Rain	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in
Wind (mph)	19 N	17 N	15 N	12 NNE	10 NNE	10 NE	14 ENE	13 NE
Humidity	92%	96%	95%	98%	95%	93%	92%	93%
UV	0	0	0	1	7	5	0	0
Model	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR

Do the models agree?

Medium confidence

They broadly agree, but not quite on rain today: take it with some caution.

What 6 forecast models say for the next few days. The closer they are, the more reliable the forecast.

HighRainWind

Do the models agree? · High
High (°F)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	82°	82°	81°	83°	80°	79°	79°
AIFS	82°	82°	82°	82°	80°	77°	79°
GFS	80°	80°	80°	79°	79°	80°	80°
ICON	81°	81°	81°	81°	80°	81°	80°
HRRR	78°	77°	—	—	—	—	—
NBM	82°	82°	82°	82°	81°	80°	81°
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	high	high

Do the models agree? · Rain
Rain	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	0.13 in	0.06 in	0.05 in	0.17 in	0.39 in	0.51 in	0.07 in
AIFS	0.07 in	0.04 in	0.01 in	0.11 in	0.65 in	1.57 in	0.56 in
GFS	0.01 in	0.03 in	0.05 in	0.04 in	0.19 in	0.12 in	0.01 in
ICON	0.03 in	0.12 in	0.05 in	0.11 in	0.40 in	0.87 in	0.29 in
HRRR	0	0	—	—	—	—	—
NBM	0.03 in	0.01 in	0.10 in	0	0.06 in	0.05 in	0.01 in
Confidence	medium	medium	high	high	medium	medium	low

Do the models agree? · Wind
Wind (mph)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	2231	1722	1521	1521	1925	1516	1429
AIFS	20	14	12	16	17	17	13
GFS	2326	1318	1317	1417	1216	1113	78
ICON	1927	1521	1519	2027	2128	1521	1422
HRRR	2029	1417	—	—	—	—	—
NBM	2126	1418	1317	1317	1317	1115	1216
Confidence	high	high	high	high	medium	high	high

Chance of rain from the ensemble models

Model	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF (51 scenarios)	57%	63%	41%	63%	63%	59%	33%
GFS (GEFS, 31 scenarios)	29%	25%	32%	39%	66%	31%	19%
NBM (NOAA)	12%	6%	20%	23%	36%	36%	12%
Thunderstorm (NBM)	2%	2%	17%	21%	28%	22%	10%

Each model's day runs midnight to midnight local time; models that reach fewer days are left blank. Rain: daily total. Wind: the day's highest average wind and, in small type, the strongest gust. Highlighted: values that stand out from the rest. The chance of rain comes from many runs of the same model with slightly different starting data.

Outlook

How the coming weeks and months compare with what is normal for the time of year. It is a trend, not a day-by-day forecast.

Next few weeks, compared with normal: normal temperatures, normal rain and a slightly warmer sea.

Next 6 weeks

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea	Typical high / low
Nov 2 – Nov 8Nov 2–Nov 8	A bit above +2.2 °F	A bit below −28%	Above +1.8 °F	—
Nov 9 – Nov 15Nov 9–Nov 15	Normal −0.4 °F	A bit above +28%	A bit above +0.7 °F	78° / 74°
Nov 16 – Nov 22Nov 16–Nov 22	Normal +0.7 °F	A bit above +33%	Normal +0.4 °F	78° / 75°
Nov 23 – Nov 29Nov 23–Nov 29	Normal +0.7 °F	A bit above +27%	A bit above +0.5 °F	77° / 74°
Nov 30 – Dec 6Nov 30–Dec 6	Normal +0.4 °F	A bit above +41%	Normal 0.0 °F	76° / 73°

Coming months

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea
November	A bit above +1.8 °F	A bit above +31%	A bit above +1.6 °F
December	Normal +0.5 °F	Well above +102%	A bit above +1.3 °F
January	Normal −0.7 °F	Well above +176%	Normal 0.0 °F
February	Normal −0.5 °F	Well above +168%	Normal +0.2 °F
March	Normal −0.5 °F	Well above +162%	Normal +0.4 °F

Weeks: ECMWF 46-day (average of its scenarios), against the normal of the last 20 years for those dates. Months: ECMWF SEAS5. Rain: total against normal. The further ahead, the closer it gets to normal and the less detail it can give.

Duck Key climate by monthClimate by month

Normal weather for each month (1991–2020 averages)

The best time to visit Duck Key is from November to April: highs of 76 °F to 82 °F, about 6 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.

Hurricane season: from August to October, peaking in September. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 14 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Duck Key, about 5 every 10 years; 6 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Eta, in November 2020.

76° 64°

JanJ
77° 65°

FebF
79° 68°

MarM
82° 71°

AprA
86° 75°

MayM
89° 79°

JunJ
91° 80°

JulJ
92° 80°

AugA
90° 79°

SepS
87° 77°

OctO
81° 71°

NovN
78° 67°

DecD

Highs and lows
Monthly rainfall
Best time

Month	High	Low	Rain	Rainy daysDays	Sun (h/day)	Water	Waves	Cyclones
JanuaryJan	76°	64°	1.66 in	5	6.5	74°	1.9 ft	–
FebruaryFeb	77°	65°	1.35 in	5	7.3	74°	1.7 ft	–
MarchMar	79°	68°	1.33 in	6	8.3	75°	1.8 ft	–
AprilApr	82°	71°	1.89 in	7	8.6	78°	1.6 ft	–
MayMay	86°	75°	5.39 in	13	8.7	81°	1.6 ft	–
JuneJun	89°	79°	6.56 in	22	7.2	84°	1.3 ft	–
JulyJul	91°	80°	3.46 in	23	8.3	85°	1.2 ft	1
AugustAug	92°	80°	5.68 in	24	7.5	86°	1.3 ft	4
SeptemberSep	90°	79°	6.50 in	23	6.5	85°	1.3 ft	6
OctoberOct	87°	77°	5.34 in	13	6.3	82°	1.8 ft	2
NovemberNov	81°	71°	1.81 in	6	6.7	78°	1.8 ft	1
DecemberDec	78°	67°	1.49 in	5	6.2	76°	1.7 ft	–

Month	Water	Waves	Cyclones
Jan	74°	1.9 ft	–
Feb	74°	1.7 ft	–
Mar	75°	1.8 ft	–
Apr	78°	1.6 ft	–
May	81°	1.6 ft	–
Jun	84°	1.3 ft	–
Jul	85°	1.2 ft	1
Aug	86°	1.3 ft	4
Sep	85°	1.3 ft	6
Oct	82°	1.8 ft	2
Nov	78°	1.8 ft	1
Dec	76°	1.7 ft	–

Days: rainy days in the month. Sun: hours a day.

A normal year brings 42.46 in of rain on about 152 days and about 2,700 hours of sunshine.

Cyclones: how many tropical cyclones (tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) passed within 93 mi in each month from 1996 to 2025, according to IBTrACS (NOAA).

1991–2020 averages. Highs, lows and rainfall: TerraClimate; rainy days (0.04 in or more): NASA POWER (MERRA-2); sunshine hours: estimated from solar radiation; water: NOAA OISST; waves (average height): ERA5, 2011–2020. Normals are not a forecast: any given year can turn out very different. Sources and licenses

Temperature

Now77 °Ffeels like 83 °F

Tomorrow76 / 82 °F

It's 77 °F now (feels like 83 °F). Today, 75 °F to 78 °F; tomorrow, 76 °F to 82 °F.

Chance of rain

Today 12%
Thu 29 6% 0.01 in
Fri 30 20% 0.10 in
Sat 31 23%
Sun 1 36% 0.06 in
Mon 2 36% 0.05 in
Tue 3 12% 0.01 in

Today the chance of rain reaches 12%. The next day with likely rain is Friday 30: 20% and 0.10 in.

Recent rain: last 24 hours, 0.02 in; last 3 days, 0.24 in; last 7 days, 1.01 in.

Humidity and dew point

Humidity92%

Dew point75 °F

Humidity is 92% now and the dew point is 75 °F. With a dew point this high, it feels muggy. The temperature is very close to the dew point: fog may form.

The dew point is the temperature at which the air becomes saturated: the higher it is, the heavier the air feels.

Visibility and fog

Now8.3 migood

Clouds11%

Visibility is good now (8.3 mi). No fog expected today.

UV index

Now0

Today's peak7high

Thu 29: 7 · Fri 30: 7 · Sat 31: 7

Index	Level	What to do
0–2	low	No special protection needed.
3–5	moderate	Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.
6–7	high	Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.
8–10	very high	Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.
11+	extreme	Avoid the sun between 11 am and 5 pm; protect yourself even if it is cloudy.

Reflection off water and sand adds radiation: protect yourself more on a boat or at the beach.

Barometric pressure

↗ Rising · now Anglers say fish bite less for a while
→ Steady Anglers expect normal activity
↘ Falling Anglers say fish feed more before the change

29.8029.9030.00 29.99

Rising now (+0.04 inHg in 3 hours). Over the next 48 hours: +0.04 inHg. Rising pressure: anglers say fish bite less for a while. Fast changes, either way, tend to affect fishing.

Air and pollen

Air qualityGood · 36

Saharan dustNo

Previous days

The weather over the last 30 days, as the models analyzed it. Tap a day to see it hour by hour.

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Tue 27	Light drizzle	77 / 83 °F	0.05 in	26 mph NNE
Mon 26	Light drizzle	77 / 82 °F	0.14 in	30 mph NNE
Sun 25	Drizzle	76 / 80 °F	0.19 in	26 mph NNE
Sat 24	Light drizzle	74 / 82 °F	0.09 in	21 mph NNE
Fri 23	Light showers	75 / 82 °F	0.45 in	23 mph NE
Thu 22	Drizzle	77 / 82 °F	0.12 in	17 mph NNE
Wed 21	Overcast	76 / 83 °F	0	19 mph NNE

Show all 30 days

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Tue 20	Light drizzle	78 / 83 °F	0.09 in	22 mph NE
Mon 19	Light drizzle	80 / 84 °F	0.13 in	25 mph ENE
Sun 18	Light showers	79 / 83 °F	0.54 in	27 mph NE
Sat 17	Light showers	80 / 87 °F	0.35 in	15 mph NE
Fri 16	Light drizzle	83 / 86 °F	0.09 in	13 mph ESE
Thu 15	Drizzle	82 / 85 °F	0.15 in	17 mph ESE
Wed 14	Light drizzle	82 / 85 °F	0.15 in	18 mph ENE
Tue 13	Drizzle	80 / 85 °F	0.26 in	18 mph ENE
Mon 12	Light drizzle	84 / 86 °F	0.02 in	12 mph ENE
Sun 11	Drizzle	83 / 87 °F	0.11 in	16 mph SE
Sat 10	Light drizzle	83 / 86 °F	0.01 in	17 mph SSE
Fri 9	Light drizzle	84 / 86 °F	0.08 in	19 mph SSE
Thu 8	Light drizzle	81 / 86 °F	0.06 in	13 mph S
Wed 7	Light drizzle	83 / 85 °F	0.12 in	12 mph SSW
Tue 6	Light drizzle	84 / 86 °F	0.02 in	9 mph SE
Mon 5	Light drizzle	83 / 85 °F	0.02 in	14 mph ESE
Sun 4	Light drizzle	83 / 86 °F	0.04 in	19 mph ESE
Sat 3	Light drizzle	85 / 87 °F	0.01 in	21 mph ESE
Fri 2	Thunderstorm	83 / 86 °F	0.22 in	20 mph ESE
Thu 1	Thunderstorm	80 / 85 °F	0.70 in	22 mph E
Wed 30	Thunderstorm	75 / 85 °F	1.04 in	18 mph E
Tue 29	Showers	76 / 83 °F	0.70 in	29 mph E
Mon 28	Light drizzle	82 / 85 °F	0.02 in	16 mph WSW

These are the models at the start of each day (ECMWF and GFS; waves from Météo-France), not readings from a weather station: there can be differences at specific spots.

Questions about the weather in Duck KeyQuestions

What's the weather like today in Duck Key?

Light drizzle, from 75 °F to 78 °F, with a moderate breeze from the northeast (12 mph) and a 12% chance of rain.

Will it rain tomorrow in Duck Key?

On Thursday 29 the chance of rain is 6% (0.01 in): light drizzle.

How warm will it be this week?

Between a low of 75 °F and a high of 82 °F; the warmest day, Saturday 31.

What's the UV index today?

It reaches 7 (high). Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.

Is the pressure rising or falling?

It's 29.91 inHg and rising: +0.04 inHg over the last 24 hours.

When is the best time to visit Duck Key?

The best time to visit Duck Key is from November to April: highs of 76 °F to 82 °F, about 6 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.

What is the weather like in Duck Key in October?

In October, Duck Key normally sees highs of 87 °F and lows of 77 °F, with about 13 rainy days (5.34 in for the month) and 6 hours of sunshine a day. The sea is around 82 °F. These are 1991–2020 averages.

What are the warmest and wettest months in Duck Key?

The warmest is August, with average highs of 92 °F, and the coldest January, with lows of 64 °F. The wettest is June (6.56 in) and the driest, March.

When is hurricane season in Duck Key?

Hurricane season: from August to October, peaking in September. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 14 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Duck Key, about 5 every 10 years; 6 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Eta, in November 2020.

More about Duck Key today

Weather near Duck Key

Only places with a different forecast: spots a few miles apart share the same model cell and wouldn't add anything.

Learn more

Weather: Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0, with the best model for each spot and lead time (NOAA HRRR and NBM in the U.S., Météo-France AROME, DWD ICON-EU, ECMWF IFS and NOAA GFS); ECMWF grid point 5.7 mi away. The comparison also uses ICON (DWD), AIFS (ECMWF) and ARPEGE (Météo-France). Outlook: ECMWF 46-day and SEAS5. Chance of rain from ensemble models (ECMWF, GEFS and NBM). UV, air quality and pollen: CAMS (Copernicus).

Forecast from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) with models from ECMWF, NOAA, Météo-France, DWD, Copernicus Marine and CAMS. Updated at 7:57 pm (local time).

Spotted a mistake? Tell us · Where the weather and sea data come from