Weather in Big Pine Key

14-day forecast · updated today, Wednesday, October 28, at 11:15 pm (EDT)

Now · clear 78 °F

Feels like: 83 °F
Low / high: 74 / 85 °F
Rain: 10%
Wind: 11 mph NE

→ 29.91 inHg · steady UV 7 · high

Today in Big Pine Key: light drizzle, 74 °F to 85 °F, with a 10% chance of rain and a gentle breeze from the northeast (11 mph). Tomorrow, light drizzle, 76 °F to 83 °F and a 7% chance of rain. The warmest day of the week is Wednesday 28, at 85 °F. Next likely rain: Sunday 1 (45%).

Temperatures for the next 14 days

85° 74°
Today
83° 76°
Thu 29
83° 77°
Fri 30
84° 78°
Sat 31
83° 78°
Sun 1
82° 76°
Mon 2
82° 76°
Tue 3
82° 76°
Wed 4
82° 76°
Thu 5
81° 75°
Fri 6
80° 74°
Sat 7
80° 74°
Sun 8
76° 74°
Mon 9
76° 75°
Tue 10

Day by day

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind	Max wave	High tides	Model
Today · 28	Light drizzle	74 / 85 °F	10%	19 mph NNE	4.1 ft	11:59 am · 11:09 pm	HRRR
Thu 29	Light drizzle	76 / 83 °F	7%	13 mph NE	2.4 ft	12:53 pm	HRRR + NBM
Fri 30	Light drizzle	77 / 83 °F	18% · 0.02 in	11 mph NE	1.3 ft	12:01 am · 1:52 pm	NBM
Sat 31	Drizzle	78 / 84 °F	20%	11 mph ENE	1.6 ft	1:00 am · 2:59 pm	NBM
Sun 1	Light showers	78 / 83 °F	45% · 0.06 in	11 mph ENE	2.2 ft	1:10 am · 3:12 pm	NBM
Mon 2	Showers	76 / 82 °F	33% · 0.06 in	11 mph NE	1.8 ft	2:33 am · 4:16 pm	NBM
Tue 3	Drizzle	76 / 82 °F	10%	11 mph NE	1.6 ft	4:01 am · 5:06 pm	NBM
Wed 4	Light drizzle	76 / 82 °F	7%	7 mph ENE	1.6 ft	5:19 am · 5:47 pm	NBM
Thu 5	Light drizzle	76 / 82 °F	10%	9 mph SSW	1.4 ft	6:24 am · 6:23 pm	NBM
Fri 6	Drizzle	75 / 81 °F	13%	10 mph W	3.5 ft	7:19 am · 6:57 pm	NBM
Sat 7	Light drizzle	74 / 80 °F	11%	10 mph N	1.1 ft	8:07 am · 7:30 pm	NBM
Sun 8	Mainly clear	74 / 80 °F	16%	13 mph NNE	1.0 ft	8:50 am · 8:02 pm	NBM + ECMWF
Mon 9	Clear sky	74 / 76 °F	18%	17 mph N	1.2 ft	9:30 am · 8:34 pm	ECMWF
Tue 10	Overcast	75 / 76 °F	21%	12 mph N	0.9 ft	10:07 am · 9:08 pm	ECMWF

Each hour comes from the best model for this spot: HRRR until Thursday 29 6:00 pm; then NBM until Sunday 8 8:00 pm; then ECMWF until Thursday 12 10:00 am; then GFS.

Each day comes from the best model covering this spot: regional ones first (HRRR and NBM in the U.S., AROME, ICON-EU), then ECMWF; day 16, NOAA GFS. Waves: Météo-France up to day 10, then ECMWF WAM, coarser and further offshore. High tides: our own tide calculation.

Today, every 3 hours

Time	12:00 am	3:00 am	6:00 am	9:00 am	12:00 pm	3:00 pm	6:00 pm	9:00 pm
Sky	Light drizzle	Light drizzle	Light drizzle	Light drizzle	Mainly clear	Clear sky	Clear sky	Light drizzle
Temperature	75°	75°	76°	78°	82°	85°	80°	78°
Chance of rain	5%	4%	8%	4%	10%	1%	1%	1%
Rain	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in
Wind (mph)	19 N	15 N	12 NNE	13 NNE	13 NNE	9 NE	12 ENE	9 NNE
Humidity	85%	90%	89%	90%	87%	76%	84%	86%
UV	0	0	0	1	7	5	0	0
Model	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR

Do the models agree?

Medium confidence

They broadly agree, but not quite on rain on Friday 30: take it with some caution.

What 6 forecast models say for the next few days. The closer they are, the more reliable the forecast.

HighRainWind

Do the models agree? · High
High (°F)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	83°	82°	81°	82°	82°	78°	81°
AIFS	82°	82°	81°	81°	80°	77°	78°
GFS	80°	80°	79°	79°	80°	80°	80°
ICON	81°	80°	81°	81°	80°	81°	80°
HRRR	85°	83°	83°	—	—	—	—
NBM	83°	83°	83°	84°	83°	82°	82°
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	high	high

Do the models agree? · Rain
Rain	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	0.06 in	0.04 in	0.11 in	0.12 in	0.65 in	1.21 in	0.16 in
AIFS	0.02 in	0.05 in	0.05 in	0.11 in	0.65 in	1.54 in	0.56 in
GFS	0.02 in	0.01 in	0.07 in	0.04 in	0.31 in	0.03 in	0.15 in
ICON	0	0.01 in	0.01 in	0.02 in	0.19 in	0.37 in	0.26 in
HRRR	0	0	0	—	—	—	—
NBM	0.01 in	0	0.02 in	0	0.06 in	0.06 in	0
Confidence	high	high	medium	medium	medium	medium	medium

Do the models agree? · Wind
Wind (mph)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	2333	1722	1419	1519	1725	1716	1529
AIFS	21	14	12	15	17	17	13
GFS	2527	1518	1418	1417	1316	912	89
ICON	1527	1119	1016	1322	1423	1123	918
HRRR	1930	1321	89	—	—	—	—
NBM	2128	1218	1116	1117	1117	1114	1116
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	medium	high

Chance of rain from the ensemble models

Model	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF (51 scenarios)	59%	80%	51%	61%	66%	66%	27%
GFS (GEFS, 31 scenarios)	13%	10%	24%	39%	58%	24%	13%
NBM (NOAA)	10%	7%	18%	20%	45%	33%	10%
Thunderstorm (NBM)	2%	4%	17%	18%	33%	25%	16%

Each model's day runs midnight to midnight local time; models that reach fewer days are left blank. Rain: daily total. Wind: the day's highest average wind and, in small type, the strongest gust. Highlighted: values that stand out from the rest. The chance of rain comes from many runs of the same model with slightly different starting data.

Outlook

How the coming weeks and months compare with what is normal for the time of year. It is a trend, not a day-by-day forecast.

Next few weeks, compared with normal: normal temperatures, normal rain and a slightly warmer sea.

Next 6 weeks

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea	Typical high / low
Nov 2 – Nov 8Nov 2–Nov 8	A bit above +1.8 °F	A bit below −42%	A bit above +1.4 °F	—
Nov 9 – Nov 15Nov 9–Nov 15	Normal −0.4 °F	A bit above +22%	A bit above +0.7 °F	78° / 75°
Nov 16 – Nov 22Nov 16–Nov 22	Normal +0.7 °F	A bit above +37%	Normal +0.4 °F	78° / 76°
Nov 23 – Nov 29Nov 23–Nov 29	Normal +0.7 °F	A bit above +21%	A bit above +0.5 °F	78° / 75°
Nov 30 – Dec 6Nov 30–Dec 6	Normal +0.4 °F	A bit above +34%	Normal +0.2 °F	77° / 74°

Coming months

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea
November	A bit above +1.8 °F	A bit above +26%	Above +2.0 °F
December	Normal +0.7 °F	Above +83%	Above +1.8 °F
January	Normal −0.4 °F	Well above +141%	A bit above +0.7 °F
February	Normal −0.4 °F	Well above +129%	Normal 0.0 °F
March	Normal −0.4 °F	Well above +136%	Normal 0.0 °F

Weeks: ECMWF 46-day (average of its scenarios), against the normal of the last 20 years for those dates. Months: ECMWF SEAS5. Rain: total against normal. The further ahead, the closer it gets to normal and the less detail it can give.

Big Pine Key climate by monthClimate by month

Normal weather for each month (1991–2020 averages)

The best time to visit Big Pine Key is from November to April: highs of 75 °F to 82 °F, about 5 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.

Hurricane season: from July to October, peaking in September. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 16 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Big Pine Key, about 5 every 10 years; 7 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Elsa, in July 2021.

75° 64°

JanJ
76° 65°

FebF
79° 68°

MarM
82° 72°

AprA
85° 75°

MayM
88° 78°

JunJ
89° 80°

JulJ
90° 80°

AugA
88° 79°

SepS
85° 76°

OctO
80° 70°

NovN
76° 66°

DecD

Highs and lows
Monthly rainfall
Best time

Month	High	Low	Rain	Rainy daysDays	Sun (h/day)	Water	Waves	Cyclones
JanuaryJan	75°	64°	1.89 in	5	6.4	74°	3.1 ft	–
FebruaryFeb	76°	65°	1.33 in	4	7.2	74°	2.7 ft	–
MarchMar	79°	68°	1.36 in	4	8.1	75°	2.8 ft	–
AprilApr	82°	72°	2.01 in	6	8.4	78°	2.4 ft	–
MayMay	85°	75°	4.66 in	12	8.6	81°	2.4 ft	–
JuneJun	88°	78°	5.80 in	20	7.1	84°	1.9 ft	–
JulyJul	89°	80°	3.48 in	19	8.1	85°	1.8 ft	2
AugustAug	90°	80°	5.92 in	21	7.3	86°	1.9 ft	5
SeptemberSep	88°	79°	5.95 in	21	6.4	85°	1.8 ft	6
OctoberOct	85°	76°	5.26 in	13	6.2	83°	2.7 ft	2
NovemberNov	80°	70°	1.57 in	5	6.7	79°	3.0 ft	1
DecemberDec	76°	66°	1.52 in	5	6.2	76°	2.9 ft	–

Month	Water	Waves	Cyclones
Jan	74°	3.1 ft	–
Feb	74°	2.7 ft	–
Mar	75°	2.8 ft	–
Apr	78°	2.4 ft	–
May	81°	2.4 ft	–
Jun	84°	1.9 ft	–
Jul	85°	1.8 ft	2
Aug	86°	1.9 ft	5
Sep	85°	1.8 ft	6
Oct	83°	2.7 ft	2
Nov	79°	3.0 ft	1
Dec	76°	2.9 ft	–

Days: rainy days in the month. Sun: hours a day.

A normal year brings 40.77 in of rain on about 134 days and about 2,650 hours of sunshine.

Cyclones: how many tropical cyclones (tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) passed within 93 mi in each month from 1996 to 2025, according to IBTrACS (NOAA).

1991–2020 averages. Highs, lows and rainfall: TerraClimate; rainy days (0.04 in or more): NASA POWER (MERRA-2); sunshine hours: estimated from solar radiation; water: NOAA OISST; waves (average height): ERA5, 2011–2020. Normals are not a forecast: any given year can turn out very different. Sources and licenses

Temperature

Now78 °Ffeels like 83 °F

Tomorrow76 / 83 °F

It's 78 °F now (feels like 83 °F). Today, 74 °F to 85 °F; tomorrow, 76 °F to 83 °F.

Chance of rain

Today 10%
Thu 29 7%
Fri 30 18% 0.02 in
Sat 31 20%
Sun 1 45% 0.06 in
Mon 2 33% 0.06 in
Tue 3 10%

Today the chance of rain reaches 10%. The next day with likely rain is Sunday 1: 45% and 0.06 in.

Recent rain: last 24 hours, 0.00 in; last 3 days, 0.07 in; last 7 days, 0.76 in.

Humidity and dew point

Humidity86%

Dew point73 °F

Humidity is 86% now and the dew point is 73 °F. With a dew point this high, it feels muggy.

The dew point is the temperature at which the air becomes saturated: the higher it is, the heavier the air feels.

Visibility and fog

Now9.6 migood

Clouds11%

Visibility is good now (9.6 mi). No fog expected today.

UV index

Now0

Today's peak7high

Thu 29: 7 · Fri 30: 7 · Sat 31: 7

Index	Level	What to do
0–2	low	No special protection needed.
3–5	moderate	Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.
6–7	high	Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.
8–10	very high	Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.
11+	extreme	Avoid the sun between 11 am and 5 pm; protect yourself even if it is cloudy.

Reflection off water and sand adds radiation: protect yourself more on a boat or at the beach.

Barometric pressure

↗ Rising Anglers say fish bite less for a while
→ Steady · now Anglers expect normal activity
↘ Falling Anglers say fish feed more before the change

29.8029.9030.00 30.00

Steady now (+0.01 inHg in 3 hours). Over the next 48 hours: +0.08 inHg. Steady pressure: anglers expect normal activity. Fast changes, either way, tend to affect fishing.

Air and pollen

Air qualityGood · 35

Saharan dustNo

Previous days

The weather over the last 30 days, as the models analyzed it. Tap a day to see it hour by hour.

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Tue 27	Light drizzle	77 / 83 °F	0.01 in	24 mph NNE
Mon 26	Light drizzle	76 / 82 °F	0.07 in	28 mph NNE
Sun 25	Light drizzle	76 / 80 °F	0.14 in	25 mph NNE
Sat 24	Light drizzle	74 / 83 °F	0.06 in	21 mph NNE
Fri 23	Light showers	74 / 83 °F	0.43 in	20 mph NE
Thu 22	Light drizzle	77 / 80 °F	0.06 in	18 mph NNE
Wed 21	Partly cloudy	76 / 81 °F	0	19 mph NNE

Show all 30 days

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Tue 20	Light drizzle	78 / 83 °F	0.06 in	23 mph NE
Mon 19	Light drizzle	80 / 84 °F	0.17 in	25 mph NE
Sun 18	Light showers	78 / 83 °F	0.45 in	26 mph NE
Sat 17	Light showers	80 / 87 °F	0.44 in	15 mph NNE
Fri 16	Light drizzle	83 / 86 °F	0.11 in	13 mph ESE
Thu 15	Light drizzle	83 / 85 °F	0.18 in	17 mph ESE
Wed 14	Drizzle	80 / 85 °F	0.24 in	18 mph E
Tue 13	Drizzle	80 / 85 °F	0.24 in	17 mph ENE
Mon 12	Light drizzle	83 / 86 °F	0.05 in	12 mph NE
Sun 11	Light showers	83 / 87 °F	0.20 in	14 mph SE
Sat 10	Light drizzle	83 / 86 °F	0.06 in	17 mph SSE
Fri 9	Light drizzle	84 / 86 °F	0.13 in	19 mph SSE
Thu 8	Drizzle	79 / 86 °F	0.19 in	13 mph SSE
Wed 7	Drizzle	82 / 85 °F	0.14 in	11 mph SW
Tue 6	Light drizzle	83 / 86 °F	0.04 in	9 mph SSE
Mon 5	Light drizzle	84 / 85 °F	0.05 in	13 mph SE
Sun 4	Light drizzle	84 / 86 °F	0.01 in	19 mph ESE
Sat 3	Light drizzle	85 / 86 °F	0.01 in	20 mph ESE
Fri 2	Thunderstorm	83 / 86 °F	0.26 in	19 mph ESE
Thu 1	Thunderstorm	81 / 85 °F	0.85 in	23 mph ESE
Wed 30	Thunderstorm	76 / 85 °F	0.92 in	19 mph E
Tue 29	Showers	78 / 83 °F	0.69 in	16 mph SE
Mon 28	Light drizzle	81 / 85 °F	0.02 in	14 mph WSW

These are the models at the start of each day (ECMWF and GFS; waves from Météo-France), not readings from a weather station: there can be differences at specific spots.

Questions about the weather in Big Pine KeyQuestions

What's the weather like today in Big Pine Key?

Light drizzle, from 74 °F to 85 °F, with a gentle breeze from the northeast (11 mph) and a 10% chance of rain.

Will it rain tomorrow in Big Pine Key?

On Thursday 29 the chance of rain is 7% (0.00 in): light drizzle.

How warm will it be this week?

Between a low of 74 °F and a high of 85 °F; the warmest day, Wednesday 28.

What's the UV index today?

It reaches 7 (high). Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.

Is the pressure rising or falling?

It's 29.91 inHg and steady: −0.01 inHg over the last 24 hours.

When is the best time to visit Big Pine Key?

The best time to visit Big Pine Key is from November to April: highs of 75 °F to 82 °F, about 5 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.

What is the weather like in Big Pine Key in October?

In October, Big Pine Key normally sees highs of 85 °F and lows of 76 °F, with about 13 rainy days (5.26 in for the month) and 6 hours of sunshine a day. The sea is around 83 °F. These are 1991–2020 averages.

What are the warmest and wettest months in Big Pine Key?

The warmest is August, with average highs of 90 °F, and the coldest January, with lows of 64 °F. The wettest is September (5.95 in) and the driest, February.

When is hurricane season in Big Pine Key?

Hurricane season: from July to October, peaking in September. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 16 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Big Pine Key, about 5 every 10 years; 7 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Elsa, in July 2021.

More about Big Pine Key today

Weather near Big Pine Key

Only places with a different forecast: spots a few miles apart share the same model cell and wouldn't add anything.

Learn more

Weather: Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0, with the best model for each spot and lead time (NOAA HRRR and NBM in the U.S., Météo-France AROME, DWD ICON-EU, ECMWF IFS and NOAA GFS); ECMWF grid point 8.6 mi away. The comparison also uses ICON (DWD), AIFS (ECMWF) and ARPEGE (Météo-France). Outlook: ECMWF 46-day and SEAS5. Chance of rain from ensemble models (ECMWF, GEFS and NBM). UV, air quality and pollen: CAMS (Copernicus).

Forecast from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) with models from ECMWF, NOAA, Météo-France, DWD, Copernicus Marine and CAMS. Updated at 11:15 pm (local time).

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