Weather in Chetumal

14-day forecast · updated today, Wednesday, October 28, at 10:22 pm (EST)

Now · light drizzle 76 °F

Feels like: 84 °F
Low / high: 72 / 87 °F
Rain: 37% · 0.03 in
Wind: 1 mph SSE

↗ 29.97 inHg · rising UV 9 · very high

Today in Chetumal: light drizzle, 72 °F to 87 °F, with a 37% chance of rain (0.03 in) and a light air from the south-southeast (1 mph). Tomorrow, light drizzle, 68 °F to 88 °F and a 16% chance of rain. The warmest day of the week is Monday 2, at 89 °F. Next likely rain: Friday 30 (43%).

Temperatures for the next 14 days

87° 72°
Today
88° 68°
Thu 29
87° 72°
Fri 30
80° 75°
Sat 31
88° 72°
Sun 1
89° 71°
Mon 2
88° 73°
Tue 3
88° 73°
Wed 4
89° 73°
Thu 5
85° 71°
Fri 6
83° 65°
Sat 7
83° 63°
Sun 8
83° 67°
Mon 9
83° 67°
Tue 10

Day by day

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind	Max wave	Model
Today · 28	Light drizzle	72 / 87 °F	37% · 0.03 in	7 mph N	0.5 ft	ECMWF
Thu 29	Light drizzle	68 / 88 °F	16% · 0.03 in	6 mph NW	0.1 ft	ECMWF
Fri 30	Light showers	72 / 87 °F	43% · 0.33 in	5 mph WNW	0.1 ft	ECMWF
Sat 31	Light showers	75 / 80 °F	40% · 0.42 in	3 mph SE	0.1 ft	ECMWF
Sun 1	Light drizzle	72 / 88 °F	43% · 0.01 in	5 mph NE	0.1 ft	ECMWF
Mon 2	Light drizzle	71 / 89 °F	51% · 0.03 in	5 mph NNE	0.1 ft	ECMWF
Tue 3	Light drizzle	73 / 88 °F	41% · 0.08 in	5 mph ESE	0.1 ft	ECMWF
Wed 4	Light drizzle	73 / 88 °F	29% · 0.07 in	6 mph ESE	0.4 ft	ECMWF
Thu 5	Light drizzle	73 / 89 °F	42% · 0.14 in	7 mph WNW	0.1 ft	ECMWF
Fri 6	Light drizzle	71 / 85 °F	37% · 0.02 in	11 mph WNW	0.8 ft	ECMWF
Sat 7	Mainly clear	65 / 83 °F	32%	9 mph WNW	0.9 ft	ECMWF
Sun 8	Partly cloudy	63 / 83 °F	37%	7 mph NW	0.9 ft	ECMWF
Mon 9	Partly cloudy	67 / 83 °F	37%	6 mph N	0.8 ft	ECMWF
Tue 10	Overcast	67 / 83 °F	24%	6 mph N	0.9 ft	ECMWF

Each day comes from the best model covering this spot: regional ones first (HRRR and NBM in the U.S., AROME, ICON-EU), then ECMWF; day 16, NOAA GFS. Waves: Météo-France up to day 10, then ECMWF WAM, coarser and further offshore.

Today, every 3 hours

Time	12:00 am	3:00 am	6:00 am	9:00 am	12:00 pm	3:00 pm	6:00 pm	9:00 pm
Sky	Light drizzle	Clear	Clear	Clear sky	Clear sky	Light drizzle	Overcast	Overcast
Temperature	75°	73°	72°	78°	85°	86°	81°	77°
Chance of rain	37%	16%	1%	0%	0%	17%	7%	0%
Rain	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in
Wind (mph)	5 N	6 NNW	6 NNW	6 N	7 N	7 N	4 NNE	2 ESE
Humidity	98%	99%	100%	82%	61%	55%	70%	83%
UV	0	0	0	2	9	5	0	0
Model	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF

Do the models agree?

Low confidence

They don't agree on rain on Saturday 31: it may change, so check again closer to the day.

What 4 forecast models say for the next few days. The closer they are, the more reliable the forecast.

HighRainWind

Do the models agree? · High
High (°F)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	87°	88°	87°	80°	88°	89°	88°
AIFS	85°	88°	89°	88°	89°	89°	89°
GFS	88°	90°	92°	90°	91°	90°	90°
ICON	87°	88°	89°	87°	89°	88°	88°
Confidence	high	high	high	low	high	high	high

Do the models agree? · Rain
Rain	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	0.03 in	0.03 in	0.33 in	0.42 in	0.01 in	0.03 in	0.08 in
AIFS	0.03 in	0	0.02 in	0.08 in	0.04 in	0.11 in	0.10 in
GFS	0	0.00 in	0	0	0.06 in	0.02 in	0
ICON	0	0	0	0	0	0.02 in	0
Confidence	high	high	medium	low	medium	medium	medium

Do the models agree? · Wind
Wind (mph)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	716	614	513	39	517	515	515
AIFS	6	6	4	3	4	3	3
GFS	517	59	48	718	515	512	716
ICON	614	514	411	616	411	415	819
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	high	high

Chance of rain from the ensemble models

Model	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF (51 scenarios)	37%	16%	43%	40%	43%	51%	41%
GFS (GEFS, 31 scenarios)	72%	50%	20%	29%	34%	32%	10%

Each model's day runs midnight to midnight local time; models that reach fewer days are left blank. Rain: daily total. Wind: the day's highest average wind and, in small type, the strongest gust. Highlighted: values that stand out from the rest. The chance of rain comes from many runs of the same model with slightly different starting data.

Outlook

How the coming weeks and months compare with what is normal for the time of year. It is a trend, not a day-by-day forecast.

Next few weeks, compared with normal: a bit warmer, a bit drier and a warmer sea.

Next 6 weeks

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea	Typical high / low
Nov 2 – Nov 8Nov 2–Nov 8	Above +3.1 °F	A bit below −50%	Above +2.2 °F	—
Nov 9 – Nov 15Nov 9–Nov 15	A bit above +1.1 °F	Normal	Above +2.2 °F	83° / 73°
Nov 16 – Nov 22Nov 16–Nov 22	A bit above +1.4 °F	Normal	A bit above +1.6 °F	83° / 74°
Nov 23 – Nov 29Nov 23–Nov 29	A bit above +2.0 °F	A bit below −27%	A bit above +1.6 °F	84° / 74°
Nov 30 – Dec 6Nov 30–Dec 6	A bit above +2.0 °F	A bit below −22%	A bit above +1.6 °F	83° / 74°

Coming months

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea
November	Above +2.7 °F	Normal	Above +2.5 °F
December	A bit above +1.8 °F	A bit below −25%	Above +1.8 °F
January	A bit above +1.6 °F	A bit below −42%	A bit above +0.7 °F
February	A bit above +2.0 °F	A bit below −38%	A bit above +0.5 °F
March	A bit above +2.0 °F	A bit below −21%	A bit above +0.5 °F

Weeks: ECMWF 46-day (average of its scenarios), against the normal of the last 20 years for those dates. Months: ECMWF SEAS5. Rain: total against normal. The further ahead, the closer it gets to normal and the less detail it can give.

Chetumal climate by monthClimate by month

Normal weather for each month (1991–2020 averages)

The best time to visit Chetumal is from December to March: highs of 85 °F to 89 °F, about 6 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.

Hurricane season: from May to June and from August to November, peaking in August. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 14 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Chetumal, about 5 every 10 years; 7 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Nadine, in October 2024.

85° 66°

JanJ
87° 68°

FebF
89° 70°

MarM
91° 73°

AprA
92° 74°

MayM
91° 75°

JunJ
92° 76°

JulJ
93° 75°

AugA
92° 75°

SepS
90° 73°

OctO
87° 69°

NovN
86° 67°

DecD

Highs and lows
Monthly rainfall
Best time

Month	High	Low	Rain	Rainy daysDays	Sun (h/day)	Water	Waves	Cyclones
JanuaryJan	85°	66°	2.16 in	8	6.7	79°	2.3 ft	–
FebruaryFeb	87°	68°	0.98 in	5	7.6	79°	2.5 ft	–
MarchMar	89°	70°	0.79 in	3	7.6	80°	2.5 ft	–
AprilApr	91°	73°	1.41 in	4	7.1	82°	2.5 ft	–
MayMay	92°	74°	2.94 in	8	6.9	84°	2.4 ft	1
JuneJun	91°	75°	7.27 in	14	6.7	84°	2.6 ft	1
JulyJul	92°	76°	3.94 in	13	7.5	85°	2.1 ft	–
AugustAug	93°	75°	4.92 in	14	7.3	86°	2.0 ft	6
SeptemberSep	92°	75°	6.09 in	18	6.9	86°	1.7 ft	1
OctoberOct	90°	73°	6.70 in	17	6.3	84°	1.7 ft	4
NovemberNov	87°	69°	3.32 in	11	7.0	81°	1.9 ft	1
DecemberDec	86°	67°	2.62 in	9	6.6	80°	2.2 ft	–

Month	Water	Waves	Cyclones
Jan	79°	2.3 ft	–
Feb	79°	2.5 ft	–
Mar	80°	2.5 ft	–
Apr	82°	2.5 ft	–
May	84°	2.4 ft	1
Jun	84°	2.6 ft	1
Jul	85°	2.1 ft	–
Aug	86°	2.0 ft	6
Sep	86°	1.7 ft	1
Oct	84°	1.7 ft	4
Nov	81°	1.9 ft	1
Dec	80°	2.2 ft	–

Days: rainy days in the month. Sun: hours a day.

A normal year brings 43.15 in of rain on about 124 days and about 2,550 hours of sunshine.

Cyclones: how many tropical cyclones (tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) passed within 93 mi in each month from 1996 to 2025, according to IBTrACS (NOAA).

1991–2020 averages. Highs, lows and rainfall: TerraClimate; rainy days (0.04 in or more): NASA POWER (MERRA-2); sunshine hours: estimated from solar radiation; water: NOAA OISST; waves (average height): ERA5, 2011–2020. Normals are not a forecast: any given year can turn out very different. Sources and licenses

Temperature

Now76 °Ffeels like 84 °F

Tomorrow68 / 88 °F

It's 76 °F now (feels like 84 °F). Today, 72 °F to 87 °F; tomorrow, 68 °F to 88 °F.

Chance of rain

Today 37% 0.03 in
Thu 29 16% 0.03 in
Fri 30 43% 0.33 in
Sat 31 40% 0.42 in
Sun 1 43% 0.01 in
Mon 2 51% 0.03 in
Tue 3 41% 0.08 in

Today the chance of rain reaches 37%, with 0.03 in in total. The next day with likely rain is Friday 30: 43% and 0.33 in.

Recent rain: last 24 hours, 0.02 in; last 3 days, 0.02 in; last 7 days, 0.31 in.

Humidity and dew point

Humidity87%

Dew point72 °F

Humidity is 87% now and the dew point is 72 °F. With a dew point this high, it feels muggy.

The dew point is the temperature at which the air becomes saturated: the higher it is, the heavier the air feels.

Visibility and fog

Now15 migood

Clouds69%

Visibility is good now (15 mi). No fog expected today.

The model gives visibility up to about 15 mi: beyond that, the horizon is clear.

UV index

Now0

Today's peak9very high

Thu 29: 9 · Fri 30: 8 · Sat 31: 9

Index	Level	What to do
0–2	low	No special protection needed.
3–5	moderate	Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.
6–7	high	Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.
8–10	very high	Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.
11+	extreme	Avoid the sun between 11 am and 5 pm; protect yourself even if it is cloudy.

Reflection off water and sand adds radiation: protect yourself more on a boat or at the beach.

Barometric pressure

↗ Rising · now Anglers say fish bite less for a while
→ Steady Anglers expect normal activity
↘ Falling Anglers say fish feed more before the change

29.8029.9030.00 29.83

Rising now (+0.04 inHg in 3 hours). Over the next 48 hours: −0.04 inHg. Rising pressure: anglers say fish bite less for a while. Fast changes, either way, tend to affect fishing.

Air and pollen

Air qualityFair · 29

Saharan dustNo

Previous days

The weather over the last 30 days, as the models analyzed it. Tap a day to see it hour by hour.

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Tue 27	Light drizzle	71 / 87 °F	0.00 in	6 mph NNW
Mon 26	Overcast	65 / 87 °F	0	7 mph NW
Sun 25	Light drizzle	68 / 86 °F	0.08 in	7 mph NNW
Sat 24	Overcast	70 / 87 °F	0	7 mph N
Fri 23	Partly cloudy	69 / 87 °F	0	7 mph N
Thu 22	Drizzle	74 / 86 °F	0.20 in	7 mph N
Wed 21	Showers	75 / 87 °F	0.71 in	6 mph N

Show all 30 days

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Tue 20	Light showers	76 / 88 °F	0.39 in	6 mph NNE
Mon 19	Drizzle	74 / 89 °F	0.11 in	5 mph NNE
Sun 18	Rain	74 / 89 °F	0.66 in	7 mph NNE
Sat 17	Light showers	74 / 81 °F	0.37 in	8 mph NNE
Fri 16	Showers	75 / 80 °F	1.16 in	8 mph ENE
Thu 15	Light showers	75 / 84 °F	0.45 in	5 mph NNE
Wed 14	Drizzle	76 / 89 °F	0.25 in	5 mph NE
Tue 13	Drizzle	76 / 91 °F	0.24 in	9 mph NNE
Mon 12	Light drizzle	76 / 90 °F	0.06 in	8 mph NE
Sun 11	Light showers	78 / 85 °F	0.37 in	9 mph ENE
Sat 10	Drizzle	76 / 91 °F	0.09 in	6 mph SE
Fri 9	Thunderstorm	74 / 90 °F	1.02 in	6 mph SW
Thu 8	Showers	74 / 92 °F	0.76 in	6 mph SW
Wed 7	Thunderstorm	75 / 92 °F	0.79 in	6 mph SE
Tue 6	Light drizzle	76 / 91 °F	0.10 in	7 mph E
Mon 5	Light drizzle	78 / 88 °F	0.13 in	8 mph E
Sun 4	Light showers	76 / 86 °F	0.43 in	7 mph E
Sat 3	Showers	74 / 83 °F	0.69 in	7 mph ENE
Fri 2	Showers	77 / 89 °F	0.37 in	7 mph E
Thu 1	Drizzle	74 / 90 °F	0.24 in	7 mph E
Wed 30	Light drizzle	76 / 88 °F	0.08 in	10 mph E
Tue 29	Light showers	77 / 89 °F	0.30 in	9 mph ESE
Mon 28	Light drizzle	77 / 91 °F	0.06 in	8 mph ESE

These are the models at the start of each day (ECMWF and GFS; waves from Météo-France), not readings from a weather station: there can be differences at specific spots.

Questions about the weather in ChetumalQuestions

What's the weather like today in Chetumal?

Light drizzle, from 72 °F to 87 °F, with a light air from the south-southeast (1 mph) and a 37% chance of rain.

Will it rain tomorrow in Chetumal?

On Thursday 29 the chance of rain is 16% (0.03 in): light drizzle.

How warm will it be this week?

Between a low of 68 °F and a high of 89 °F; the warmest day, Monday 2.

What's the UV index today?

It reaches 9 (very high). Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.

Is the pressure rising or falling?

It's 29.97 inHg and rising: −0.03 inHg over the last 24 hours.

When is the best time to visit Chetumal?

The best time to visit Chetumal is from December to March: highs of 85 °F to 89 °F, about 6 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.

What is the weather like in Chetumal in October?

In October, Chetumal normally sees highs of 90 °F and lows of 73 °F, with about 17 rainy days (6.70 in for the month) and 6 hours of sunshine a day. The sea is around 84 °F. These are 1991–2020 averages.

What are the warmest and wettest months in Chetumal?

The warmest is August, with average highs of 93 °F, and the coldest January, with lows of 66 °F. The wettest is June (7.27 in) and the driest, March.

When is hurricane season in Chetumal?

Hurricane season: from May to June and from August to November, peaking in August. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 14 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Chetumal, about 5 every 10 years; 7 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Nadine, in October 2024.

More about Chetumal today

Weather near Chetumal

Only places with a different forecast: spots a few miles apart share the same model cell and wouldn't add anything.

Learn more

Weather: Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0, with the best model for each spot and lead time (NOAA HRRR and NBM in the U.S., Météo-France AROME, DWD ICON-EU, ECMWF IFS and NOAA GFS); ECMWF grid point 13 mi away. The comparison also uses ICON (DWD), AIFS (ECMWF) and ARPEGE (Météo-France). Outlook: ECMWF 46-day and SEAS5. Chance of rain from ensemble models (ECMWF, GEFS and NBM). UV, air quality and pollen: CAMS (Copernicus).

Forecast from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) with models from ECMWF, NOAA, Météo-France, DWD, Copernicus Marine and CAMS. Updated at 10:22 pm (local time).

Spotted a mistake? Tell us · Where the weather and sea data come from