TidePlanet

Weather in Chincoteague

14-day forecast · updated today, Thursday, October 29, at 2:52 am (EDT)
Now · partly cloudy 54 °F
Feels like
51 °F
Low / high
53 / 67 °F
Rain
1%
Wind
6 mph NNE
↘ 30.28 inHg · falling

Today in Chincoteague: partly cloudy, 53 °F to 67 °F, with a 1% chance of rain and a light breeze from the north-northeast (6 mph). Tomorrow, clear sky, 56 °F to 73 °F and a 2% chance of rain. The warmest day of the week is Friday 30, at 73 °F. Next likely rain: Wednesday 4 (21%).

Measured now at the airport

Wallops Island Facility (KWAL), 4.8 mi away · 58 min ago

Visibility9.9 mi or more
WeatherNothing to note
Temperature54 °F
Wind3 mph from the north-northwest

It's what the airport's weather station measured, not a forecast: on the coast, wind and fog can be different. Airports report every 30 or 60 minutes.

Airport METAR report, via NOAA's Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov). Sources and licenses

Temperatures for the next 14 days

Day by day

Day Sky Low / high Rain Max wind Max wave High tides Model
Today · 29 Partly cloudy 53 / 67 °F 1% 7 mph ESE 2.4 ft 11:21 am · 11:35 pm HRRR + NBM
Fri 30 Clear sky 56 / 73 °F 2% 9 mph WNW 2.2 ft 12:15 pm NBM
Sat 31 Overcast 50 / 60 °F 0% 11 mph NNE 2.6 ft 12:31 am · 1:13 pm NBM
Sun 1 Overcast 53 / 63 °F 0% 6 mph E 1.8 ft 1:32 am · 1:15 pm NBM
Mon 2 Mainly clear 56 / 66 °F 5% 6 mph ESE 1.4 ft 1:39 am · 2:20 pm NBM
Tue 3 Overcast 58 / 67 °F 7% 11 mph ENE 2.0 ft 2:48 am · 3:23 pm NBM
Wed 4 Clear sky 60 / 68 °F 21% · 0.14 in 13 mph E 3.9 ft 3:53 am · 4:21 pm NBM
Thu 5 Clear sky 60 / 67 °F 27% · 0.06 in 13 mph ESE 4.1 ft 4:51 am · 5:14 pm NBM
Fri 6 Rain 56 / 65 °F 25% · 0.48 in 11 mph N 4.1 ft 5:43 am · 6:02 pm NBM
Sat 7 Rain 53 / 62 °F 25% · 0.13 in 12 mph NNW 4.3 ft 6:30 am · 6:48 pm NBM
Sun 8 Overcast 47 / 61 °F 10% · 0.11 in 10 mph NNW 3.5 ft 7:13 am · 7:31 pm NBM + ECMWF
Mon 9 Clear sky 43 / 59 °F 18% 9 mph N 3.2 ft 7:55 am · 8:12 pm ECMWF
Tue 10 Overcast 42 / 63 °F 16% 6 mph NNE 2.8 ft 8:36 am · 8:52 pm ECMWF
Wed 11 Partly cloudy 46 / 68 °F 15% 5 mph NW 2.4 ft 9:16 am · 9:31 pm ECMWF

Each hour comes from the best model for this spot: HRRR until Thursday 29 9:00 pm; then NBM until Sunday 8 8:00 pm; then ECMWF until Thursday 12 10:00 am; then GFS.

Each day comes from the best model covering this spot: regional ones first (HRRR and NBM in the U.S., AROME, ICON-EU), then ECMWF; day 16, NOAA GFS. Waves: Météo-France up to day 10, then ECMWF WAM, coarser and further offshore. High tides: our own tide calculation.

Today, every 3 hours

Time 12:00 am3:00 am6:00 am9:00 am12:00 pm3:00 pm6:00 pm9:00 pm
Sky Partly cloudyPartly cloudyMainly clearClear skyMainly clearPartly cloudyClear skyClear
Temperature 54°54°55°58°65°67°60°59°
Chance of rain 0%0%1%1%1%1%0%0%
Rain 0.00 in0.00 in0.00 in0.00 in0.00 in0.00 in0.00 in0.00 in
Wind (mph) 3 ENE6 NNE4 NNE4 N2 NW6 SSE6 S3 S
Humidity 81%83%87%90%78%78%91%97%
UV 00014200
Model HRRRHRRRHRRRHRRRHRRRHRRRHRRRNBM

Do the models agree?

High confidence

The models agree for the next few days: the forecast is fairly solid.

What 6 forecast models say for the next few days. The closer they are, the more reliable the forecast.

Do the models agree? · High
High (°F) TodayFri 30Sat 31Sun 1Mon 2Tue 3Wed 4
ECMWF 73°75°63°64°69°72°74°
AIFS 68°73°61°62°64°68°70°
GFS 69°75°61°61°64°66°67°
ICON 70°75°60°62°69°73°69°
HRRR 67°72°—————
NBM 67°73°60°63°66°67°68°
Confidence highhighhighhighhighmediumhigh
Do the models agree? · Rain
Rain TodayFri 30Sat 31Sun 1Mon 2Tue 3Wed 4
ECMWF 0000000
AIFS 0000000
GFS 0000000
ICON 0000000
HRRR 00—————
NBM 0000000.14 in
Confidence highhighhighhighhighhighhigh
Do the models agree? · Wind
Wind (mph) TodayFri 30Sat 31Sun 1Mon 2Tue 3Wed 4
ECMWF 51210229217237191120516
AIFS 6101265610
GFS 78122811258136119141227
ICON 489201021410513512715
HRRR 7131220—————
NBM 579131115696911151319
Confidence highhighhighhighhighhighhigh

Chance of rain from the ensemble models

Model TodayFri 30Sat 31Sun 1Mon 2Tue 3Wed 4
ECMWF (51 scenarios) 0%0%0%0%6%7%10%
GFS (GEFS, 31 scenarios) 0%0%0%0%9%13%16%
NBM (NOAA) 1%2%0%0%5%7%21%
Thunderstorm (NBM) 0%0%0%1%1%1%1%

Each model's day runs midnight to midnight local time; models that reach fewer days are left blank. Rain: daily total. Wind: the day's highest average wind and, in small type, the strongest gust. Highlighted: values that stand out from the rest. The chance of rain comes from many runs of the same model with slightly different starting data.

Outlook

How the coming weeks and months compare with what is normal for the time of year. It is a trend, not a day-by-day forecast.

Next few weeks, compared with normal: a bit warmer, a bit wetter and a near-normal sea.

Next 6 weeks

When TemperatureTemp. Rain Sea Typical high / low
Nov 2 – Nov 8Nov 2–Nov 8 Above +4.7 °F Above +57% Normal −0.2 °F —
Nov 9 – Nov 15Nov 9–Nov 15 Normal +0.7 °F A bit above +27% Normal +0.4 °F —
Nov 16 – Nov 22Nov 16–Nov 22 A bit above +2.0 °F Normal A bit above +0.5 °F 57° / 53°
Nov 23 – Nov 29Nov 23–Nov 29 A bit above +2.2 °F A bit above +36% A bit above +1.1 °F 55° / 51°
Nov 30 – Dec 6Nov 30–Dec 6 A bit above +1.8 °F A bit above +47% A bit above +0.9 °F 53° / 49°

Coming months

When TemperatureTemp. Rain Sea
November A bit above +1.3 °F A bit above +42% —
December A bit above +1.6 °F A bit above +22% —
January A bit above +2.2 °F A bit above +46% —
February A bit above +0.9 °F A bit above +46% —
March Normal +0.5 °F A bit above +32% —

Weeks: ECMWF 46-day (average of its scenarios), against the normal of the last 20 years for those dates. Months: ECMWF SEAS5. Rain: total against normal. The further ahead, the closer it gets to normal and the less detail it can give.

Chincoteague climate by monthClimate by month

Normal weather for each month (1991–2020 averages)

The best time to visit Chincoteague is from May to September: highs of 72 °F to 86 °F, about 11 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.

Hurricane season: from July to September, peaking in July. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 11 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Chincoteague, about 4 every 10 years; 2 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Elsa, in July 2021.

Month High Low Rain Rainy daysDays Sun (h/day) Water Waves Cyclones
JanuaryJan 46° 30° 3.26 in 8 4.3 45° 3.6 ft –
FebruaryFeb 48° 32° 2.83 in 8 5.1 41° 3.5 ft –
MarchMar 55° 38° 3.98 in 9 5.9 43° 3.8 ft –
AprilApr 64° 46° 3.16 in 9 6.5 50° 3.7 ft –
MayMay 72° 55° 3.18 in 10 7.4 59° 3.1 ft –
JuneJun 81° 65° 3.64 in 11 7.8 69° 2.7 ft 1
JulyJul 86° 70° 4.07 in 13 7.9 75° 2.6 ft 4
AugustAug 84° 68° 4.26 in 11 7.2 76° 2.7 ft 3
SeptemberSep 79° 63° 3.65 in 9 6.1 74° 3.8 ft 3
OctoberOct 69° 52° 3.89 in 7 5.4 67° 3.8 ft –
NovemberNov 59° 42° 2.95 in 7 4.7 58° 3.8 ft –
DecemberDec 51° 35° 3.58 in 9 3.9 51° 3.5 ft –
Month Water Waves Cyclones
Jan 45° 3.6 ft –
Feb 41° 3.5 ft –
Mar 43° 3.8 ft –
Apr 50° 3.7 ft –
May 59° 3.1 ft –
Jun 69° 2.7 ft 1
Jul 75° 2.6 ft 4
Aug 76° 2.7 ft 3
Sep 74° 3.8 ft 3
Oct 67° 3.8 ft –
Nov 58° 3.8 ft –
Dec 51° 3.5 ft –

Days: rainy days in the month. Sun: hours a day.

A normal year brings 42.45 in of rain on about 109 days and about 2,200 hours of sunshine.

Cyclones: how many tropical cyclones (tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) passed within 93 mi in each month from 1996 to 2025, according to IBTrACS (NOAA).

1991–2020 averages. Highs, lows and rainfall: TerraClimate; rainy days (0.04 in or more): NASA POWER (MERRA-2); sunshine hours: estimated from solar radiation; water: NOAA OISST; waves (average height): ERA5, 2011–2020. Normals are not a forecast: any given year can turn out very different. Sources and licenses

Temperature

Now54 °Ffeels like 51 °F
Tomorrow56 / 73 °F

It's 54 °F now (feels like 51 °F). Today, 53 °F to 67 °F; tomorrow, 56 °F to 73 °F.

Chance of rain

  • Today 1%
  • Fri 30 2%
  • Sat 31 0%
  • Sun 1 0%
  • Mon 2 5%
  • Tue 3 7%
  • Wed 4 21% 0.14 in

Today the chance of rain reaches 1%. The next day with likely rain is Wednesday 4: 21% and 0.14 in.

No rain in the last 7 days.

Humidity and dew point

Humidity83%
Dew point49 °F

Humidity is 83% now and the dew point is 49 °F.

The dew point is the temperature at which the air becomes saturated: the higher it is, the heavier the air feels.

Visibility and fog

Now8.1 migood
Clouds50%

Visibility is good now (8.1 mi). No fog expected today.

UV index

Now0
Today's peak4moderate

Fri 30: 4 · Sat 31: 4 · Sun 1: 4

IndexLevelWhat to do
0–2lowNo special protection needed.
3–5moderateHat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.
6–7highSunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.
8–10very highAvoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.
11+extremeAvoid the sun between 11 am and 5 pm; protect yourself even if it is cloudy.

Reflection off water and sand adds radiation: protect yourself more on a boat or at the beach.

Barometric pressure

  • ↗ Rising Anglers say fish bite less for a while
  • → Steady Anglers expect normal activity
  • ↘ Falling · now Anglers say fish feed more before the change

Falling now (−0.06 inHg in 3 hours). Over the next 48 hours: +0.04 inHg. Falling pressure: anglers say fish feed more before the change. Fast changes, either way, tend to affect fishing.

Air and pollen

Air qualityGood · 44
Saharan dustNo

Previous days

The weather over the last 30 days, as the models analyzed it. Tap a day to see it hour by hour.

DaySkyLow / highRainMax wind
Wed 28 Overcast53 / 69 °F09 mph ENE
Tue 27 Mainly clear49 / 70 °F010 mph NE
Mon 26 Clear sky41 / 69 °F08 mph WNW
Sun 25 Clear sky48 / 67 °F07 mph NE
Sat 24 Overcast48 / 63 °F011 mph NE
Fri 23 Overcast50 / 64 °F012 mph NNE
Thu 22 Overcast46 / 67 °F010 mph NNW
Show all 30 days
DaySkyLow / highRainMax wind
Wed 21 Overcast51 / 66 °F012 mph N
Tue 20 Mainly clear49 / 70 °F013 mph N
Mon 19 Mainly clear46 / 64 °F014 mph NNE
Sun 18 Partly cloudy44 / 60 °F013 mph NNE
Sat 17 Heavy drizzle49 / 65 °F0.41 in16 mph N
Fri 16 Rain65 / 81 °F0.64 in12 mph SW
Thu 15 Light rain64 / 73 °F0.19 in13 mph NE
Wed 14 Partly cloudy67 / 87 °F09 mph SW
Tue 13 Partly cloudy58 / 79 °F09 mph WSW
Mon 12 Light drizzle61 / 72 °F0.04 in16 mph NW
Sun 11 Light rain67 / 76 °F0.59 in18 mph SE
Sat 10 Overcast59 / 71 °F012 mph ENE
Fri 9 Overcast56 / 76 °F04 mph NE
Thu 8 Overcast57 / 79 °F08 mph WSW
Wed 7 Clear sky46 / 69 °F08 mph S
Tue 6 Clear sky50 / 65 °F08 mph NNW
Mon 5 Overcast58 / 73 °F011 mph NW
Sun 4 Light rain64 / 69 °F0.64 in11 mph NE
Sat 3 Light rain63 / 75 °F0.39 in11 mph NNE
Fri 2 Overcast68 / 85 °F012 mph SW
Thu 1 Overcast64 / 84 °F010 mph SSW
Wed 30 Overcast59 / 79 °F06 mph SSW
Tue 29 Overcast62 / 76 °F07 mph W

These are the models at the start of each day (ECMWF and GFS; waves from Météo-France), not readings from a weather station: there can be differences at specific spots.

Questions about the weather in ChincoteagueQuestions

What's the weather like today in Chincoteague?

Partly cloudy, from 53 °F to 67 °F, with a light breeze from the north-northeast (6 mph) and a 1% chance of rain.

Will it rain tomorrow in Chincoteague?

On Friday 30 the chance of rain is 2% (0.00 in): clear sky.

How warm will it be this week?

Between a low of 50 °F and a high of 73 °F; the warmest day, Friday 30.

What's the UV index today?

It reaches 4 (moderate). Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.

Is the pressure rising or falling?

It's 30.28 inHg and falling: −0.08 inHg over the last 24 hours.

When is the best time to visit Chincoteague?

The best time to visit Chincoteague is from May to September: highs of 72 °F to 86 °F, about 11 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.

What is the weather like in Chincoteague in October?

In October, Chincoteague normally sees highs of 69 °F and lows of 52 °F, with about 7 rainy days (3.89 in for the month) and 5 hours of sunshine a day. The sea is around 67 °F. These are 1991–2020 averages.

What are the warmest and wettest months in Chincoteague?

The warmest is July, with average highs of 86 °F, and the coldest January, with lows of 30 °F. The wettest is August (4.26 in) and the driest, February.

When is hurricane season in Chincoteague?

Hurricane season: from July to September, peaking in July. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 11 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Chincoteague, about 4 every 10 years; 2 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Elsa, in July 2021.

More about Chincoteague today

Weather near Chincoteague

Only places with a different forecast: spots a few miles apart share the same model cell and wouldn't add anything.

Learn more

Weather: Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0, with the best model for each spot and lead time (NOAA HRRR and NBM in the U.S., Météo-France AROME, DWD ICON-EU, ECMWF IFS and NOAA GFS); ECMWF grid point 8.1 mi away. The comparison also uses ICON (DWD), AIFS (ECMWF) and ARPEGE (Météo-France). Outlook: ECMWF 46-day and SEAS5. Chance of rain from ensemble models (ECMWF, GEFS and NBM). UV, air quality and pollen: CAMS (Copernicus).

Forecast from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) with models from ECMWF, NOAA, Météo-France, DWD, Copernicus Marine and CAMS. Updated at 2:52 am (local time).

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