Weather in Head of the Harbor
14-day forecast · updated today, Thursday, October 29, at 3:25 am (EDT)- Feels like
- 46 °F
- Low / high
- 47 / 67 °F
- Rain
- 2%
- Wind
- 5 mph SSE
Today in Head of the Harbor: clear sky, 47 °F to 67 °F, with a 2% chance of rain and a light breeze from the south-southeast (5 mph). Tomorrow, light drizzle, 49 °F to 68 °F and a 5% chance of rain. The warmest day of the week is Friday 30, at 68 °F. Next likely rain: Wednesday 4 (25%).
Temperatures for the next 14 days
- Today
- Fri 30
- Sat 31
- Sun 1
- Mon 2
- Tue 3
- Wed 4
- Thu 5
- Fri 6
- Sat 7
- Sun 8
- Mon 9
- Tue 10
- Wed 11
Day by day
| Day | Sky | Low / high | Rain | Max wind | Max wave | High tides | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today · 29 | 47 / 67 °F | 2% | 11 mph SSW | 0.9 ft | 1:59 am · 2:15 pm | HRRR + NBM | |
| Fri 30 | 49 / 68 °F | 5% | 12 mph WNW | 1.5 ft | 2:53 am · 3:12 pm | NBM | |
| Sat 31 | 44 / 58 °F | 0% | 9 mph NNW | 1.0 ft | 3:52 am · 4:13 pm | NBM | |
| Sun 1 | 43 / 61 °F | 0% | 5 mph WSW | 0.5 ft | 3:54 am · 4:18 pm | NBM | |
| Mon 2 | 48 / 64 °F | 5% | 6 mph WSW | 0.6 ft | 4:59 am · 5:26 pm | NBM | |
| Tue 3 | 51 / 64 °F | 11% | 9 mph E | 1.0 ft | 6:05 am · 6:32 pm | NBM | |
| Wed 4 | 52 / 64 °F | 25% · 0.17 in | 10 mph ESE | 0.9 ft | 7:06 am · 7:33 pm | NBM | |
| Thu 5 | 54 / 65 °F | 32% · 0.36 in | 11 mph ESE | 0.3 ft | 8:00 am · 8:28 pm | NBM | |
| Fri 6 | 51 / 63 °F | 33% · 0.46 in | 10 mph NNE | 1.0 ft | 8:49 am · 9:17 pm | NBM | |
| Sat 7 | 48 / 59 °F | 31% · 0.12 in | 10 mph NNW | 3.2 ft | 9:33 am · 10:02 pm | NBM | |
| Sun 8 | 44 / 58 °F | 22% · 0.08 in | 9 mph NNW | 2.2 ft | 10:14 am · 10:44 pm | NBM + ECMWF | |
| Mon 9 | 40 / 55 °F | 21% | 7 mph NNW | 1.2 ft | 10:53 am · 11:24 pm | ECMWF | |
| Tue 10 | 42 / 55 °F | 14% | 8 mph NE | 1.6 ft | 11:31 am | ECMWF | |
| Wed 11 | 41 / 62 °F | 18% | 4 mph NNE | 0.6 ft | 12:04 am · 12:10 pm | ECMWF |
Each hour comes from the best model for this spot: HRRR until Thursday 29 10:00 pm; then NBM until Sunday 8 8:00 pm; then ECMWF until Thursday 12 10:00 am; then GFS.
Each day comes from the best model covering this spot: regional ones first (HRRR and NBM in the U.S., AROME, ICON-EU), then ECMWF; day 16, NOAA GFS. Waves: Météo-France up to day 10, then ECMWF WAM, coarser and further offshore. High tides: our own tide calculation.
Today, every 3 hours
| Time | 12:00 am | 3:00 am | 6:00 am | 9:00 am | 12:00 pm | 3:00 pm | 6:00 pm | 9:00 pm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear sky | Clear sky | Clear sky | Clear | Clear |
| Temperature | 50° | 49° | 48° | 53° | 64° | 66° | 60° | 57° |
| Chance of rain | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Rain | 0.00 in | 0.00 in | 0.00 in | 0.00 in | 0.00 in | 0.00 in | 0.00 in | 0.00 in |
| Wind (mph) | 4 SSE | 6 SSE | 4 SSW | 2 SW | 9 SW | 10 SW | 8 SSW | 9 SSW |
| Humidity | 81% | 84% | 89% | 84% | 59% | 57% | 78% | 89% |
| UV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Model | HRRR | HRRR | HRRR | HRRR | HRRR | HRRR | HRRR | HRRR |
Do the models agree?
High confidenceThe models agree for the next few days: the forecast is fairly solid.
What 6 forecast models say for the next few days. The closer they are, the more reliable the forecast.
| High (°F) | Today | Fri 30 | Sat 31 | Sun 1 | Mon 2 | Tue 3 | Wed 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | 64° | 69° | 56° | 59° | 64° | 65° | 68° |
| AIFS | 64° | 68° | 55° | 56° | 62° | 65° | 65° |
| GFS | 67° | 68° | 56° | 58° | 64° | 61° | 61° |
| ICON | 65° | 69° | 55° | 59° | 65° | 70° | 69° |
| HRRR | 67° | 64° | — | — | — | — | — |
| NBM | 66° | 68° | 58° | 61° | 64° | 64° | 64° |
| Confidence | high | high | high | high | high | high | high |
| Rain | Today | Fri 30 | Sat 31 | Sun 1 | Mon 2 | Tue 3 | Wed 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | 0 | 0.02 in | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AIFS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GFS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ICON | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| HRRR | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| NBM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 in |
| Confidence | high | high | high | high | high | high | high |
| Wind (mph) | Today | Fri 30 | Sat 31 | Sun 1 | Mon 2 | Tue 3 | Wed 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | 1021 | 1329 | 924 | 621 | 1124 | 1223 | 923 |
| AIFS | 13 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| GFS | 1122 | 2126 | 1521 | 712 | 1219 | 914 | 1124 |
| ICON | 819 | 1127 | 1023 | 513 | 819 | 48 | 614 |
| HRRR | 1120 | 1629 | — | — | — | — | — |
| NBM | 915 | 1220 | 915 | 59 | 610 | 915 | 1017 |
| Confidence | high | high | high | high | high | high | high |
Chance of rain from the ensemble models
| Model | Today | Fri 30 | Sat 31 | Sun 1 | Mon 2 | Tue 3 | Wed 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF (51 scenarios) | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 16% | 20% |
| GFS (GEFS, 31 scenarios) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11% | 19% | 23% |
| NBM (NOAA) | 2% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 11% | 25% |
| Thunderstorm (NBM) | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
Each model's day runs midnight to midnight local time; models that reach fewer days are left blank. Rain: daily total. Wind: the day's highest average wind and, in small type, the strongest gust. Highlighted: values that stand out from the rest. The chance of rain comes from many runs of the same model with slightly different starting data.
Outlook
How the coming weeks and months compare with what is normal for the time of year. It is a trend, not a day-by-day forecast.
Next few weeks, compared with normal: warmer and normal rain.
Next 6 weeks
| When | TemperatureTemp. | Rain | Typical high / low |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 – Nov 8Nov 2–Nov 8 | Well above +6.1 °F | A bit above +39% | — |
| Nov 9 – Nov 15Nov 9–Nov 15 | A bit above +0.9 °F | Normal | — |
| Nov 16 – Nov 22Nov 16–Nov 22 | A bit above +2.2 °F | Normal | 53° / 45° |
| Nov 23 – Nov 29Nov 23–Nov 29 | A bit above +2.3 °F | A bit above +30% | 50° / 44° |
| Nov 30 – Dec 6Nov 30–Dec 6 | A bit above +1.8 °F | A bit above +21% | 48° / 41° |
Coming months
| When | TemperatureTemp. | Rain |
|---|---|---|
| November | A bit above +1.1 °F | A bit above +25% |
| December | A bit above +2.3 °F | A bit above +32% |
| January | Above +3.6 °F | A bit above +42% |
| February | Above +2.7 °F | A bit above +35% |
| March | Above +2.7 °F | A bit above +26% |
Weeks: ECMWF 46-day (average of its scenarios), against the normal of the last 20 years for those dates. Months: ECMWF SEAS5. Rain: total against normal. The further ahead, the closer it gets to normal and the less detail it can give. The long-range sea temperature isn't usable at this spot (the model's grid cell falls on land).
Head of the Harbor climate by monthClimate by month
Normal weather for each month (1991–2020 averages)The best time to visit Head of the Harbor is from June to September: highs of 74 °F to 82 °F, about 9 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.
Hurricane season: from July to September. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 9 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Head of the Harbor, about 3 every 10 years. The most recent: Henri, in August 2021.
- JanJ
- FebF
- MarM
- AprA
- MayM
- JunJ
- JulJ
- AugA
- SepS
- OctO
- NovN
- DecD
- Highs and lows
- Monthly rainfall
- Best time
| Month | High | Low | Rain | Rainy daysDays | Sun (h/day) | Water | Waves | Cyclones |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JanuaryJan | 39° | 24° | 3.40 in | 8 | 3.6 | 39° | 1.7 ft | – |
| FebruaryFeb | 40° | 25° | 2.98 in | 7 | 4.9 | 35° | 1.6 ft | – |
| MarchMar | 48° | 32° | 4.24 in | 9 | 5.5 | 37° | 1.6 ft | – |
| AprilApr | 58° | 41° | 3.87 in | 9 | 6.1 | 44° | 1.5 ft | – |
| MayMay | 68° | 50° | 3.30 in | 10 | 6.9 | 54° | 1.2 ft | – |
| JuneJun | 77° | 59° | 3.76 in | 10 | 7.5 | 65° | 1.0 ft | 1 |
| JulyJul | 82° | 66° | 3.52 in | 9 | 7.9 | 72° | 1.0 ft | 3 |
| AugustAug | 81° | 65° | 3.78 in | 10 | 7.2 | 74° | 1.0 ft | 3 |
| SeptemberSep | 74° | 58° | 3.42 in | 8 | 6.0 | 71° | 1.4 ft | 2 |
| OctoberOct | 64° | 47° | 4.07 in | 8 | 4.7 | 64° | 1.7 ft | – |
| NovemberNov | 53° | 38° | 3.43 in | 7 | 3.8 | 55° | 1.7 ft | – |
| DecemberDec | 44° | 30° | 4.01 in | 9 | 3.3 | 46° | 1.7 ft | – |
| Month | Water | Waves | Cyclones |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 39° | 1.7 ft | – |
| Feb | 35° | 1.6 ft | – |
| Mar | 37° | 1.6 ft | – |
| Apr | 44° | 1.5 ft | – |
| May | 54° | 1.2 ft | – |
| Jun | 65° | 1.0 ft | 1 |
| Jul | 72° | 1.0 ft | 3 |
| Aug | 74° | 1.0 ft | 3 |
| Sep | 71° | 1.4 ft | 2 |
| Oct | 64° | 1.7 ft | – |
| Nov | 55° | 1.7 ft | – |
| Dec | 46° | 1.7 ft | – |
Days: rainy days in the month. Sun: hours a day.
A normal year brings 43.78 in of rain on about 102 days and about 2,050 hours of sunshine.
Cyclones: how many tropical cyclones (tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) passed within 93 mi in each month from 1996 to 2025, according to IBTrACS (NOAA).
1991–2020 averages. Highs, lows and rainfall: TerraClimate; rainy days (0.04 in or more): NASA POWER (MERRA-2); sunshine hours: estimated from solar radiation; water: NOAA OISST; waves (average height): ERA5, 2011–2020. Normals are not a forecast: any given year can turn out very different. Sources and licenses
Temperature
It's 49 °F now (feels like 46 °F). Today, 47 °F to 67 °F; tomorrow, 49 °F to 68 °F.
Chance of rain
Today the chance of rain reaches 2%. The next day with likely rain is Wednesday 4: 25% and 0.17 in.
No rain in the last 7 days.
Humidity and dew point
Humidity is 85% now and the dew point is 45 °F.
The dew point is the temperature at which the air becomes saturated: the higher it is, the heavier the air feels.
Visibility and fog
Visibility is good now (7.9 mi). There may be fog today at 7:00 am.
UV index
Fri 30: 3 · Sat 31: 3 · Sun 1: 3
| Index | Level | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| 0–2 | low | No special protection needed. |
| 3–5 | moderate | Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday. |
| 6–7 | high | Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm. |
| 8–10 | very high | Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it. |
| 11+ | extreme | Avoid the sun between 11 am and 5 pm; protect yourself even if it is cloudy. |
Reflection off water and sand adds radiation: protect yourself more on a boat or at the beach.
Barometric pressure
- ↗ Rising Anglers say fish bite less for a while
- → Steady Anglers expect normal activity
- ↘ Falling · now Anglers say fish feed more before the change
Falling now (−0.03 inHg in 3 hours). It barely changes over the next 48 hours. Falling pressure: anglers say fish feed more before the change. Fast changes, either way, tend to affect fishing.
Air and pollen
Previous days
The weather over the last 30 days, as the models analyzed it. Tap a day to see it hour by hour.
| Day | Sky | Low / high | Rain | Max wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 | Overcast | 44 / 59 °F | 0 | 6 mph ENE |
| Tue 27 | Mainly clear | 50 / 59 °F | 0 | 8 mph N |
| Mon 26 | Clear sky | 45 / 68 °F | 0 | 7 mph W |
| Sun 25 | Partly cloudy | 41 / 64 °F | 0 | 5 mph WNW |
| Sat 24 | Overcast | 42 / 61 °F | 0 | 7 mph NNW |
| Fri 23 | Overcast | 49 / 58 °F | 0 | 9 mph NNE |
| Thu 22 | Overcast | 49 / 64 °F | 0 | 13 mph N |
Show all 30 days
| Day | Sky | Low / high | Rain | Max wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 21 | Overcast | 50 / 60 °F | 0 | 14 mph NNE |
| Tue 20 | Overcast | 49 / 66 °F | 0 | 13 mph NNE |
| Mon 19 | Mainly clear | 42 / 61 °F | 0 | 7 mph NNE |
| Sun 18 | Clear sky | 41 / 56 °F | 0 | 11 mph NNE |
| Sat 17 | Heavy drizzle | 46 / 64 °F | 0.20 in | 14 mph NNW |
| Fri 16 | Rain | 58 / 69 °F | 0.50 in | 11 mph SSW |
| Thu 15 | Partly cloudy | 56 / 66 °F | 0 | 9 mph NNE |
| Wed 14 | Light drizzle | 66 / 75 °F | 0.04 in | 12 mph WSW |
| Tue 13 | Partly cloudy | 57 / 68 °F | 0 | 12 mph S |
| Mon 12 | Drizzle | 55 / 70 °F | 0.07 in | 12 mph N |
| Sun 11 | Rain | 57 / 61 °F | 1.43 in | 17 mph ENE |
| Sat 10 | Overcast | 53 / 68 °F | 0 | 6 mph ENE |
| Fri 9 | Overcast | 52 / 71 °F | 0 | 8 mph WNW |
| Thu 8 | Clear sky | 60 / 74 °F | 0 | 11 mph WSW |
| Wed 7 | Clear sky | 44 / 64 °F | 0 | 11 mph SW |
| Tue 6 | Clear sky | 49 / 61 °F | 0 | 9 mph NW |
| Mon 5 | Overcast | 55 / 70 °F | 0 | 13 mph WNW |
| Sun 4 | Heavy drizzle | 56 / 62 °F | 0.30 in | 9 mph NE |
| Sat 3 | Overcast | 60 / 70 °F | 0 | 10 mph NE |
| Fri 2 | Drizzle | 68 / 77 °F | 0.06 in | 10 mph SW |
| Thu 1 | Overcast | 64 / 73 °F | 0 | 10 mph SW |
| Wed 30 | Overcast | 60 / 71 °F | 0 | 6 mph W |
| Tue 29 | Light drizzle | 58 / 69 °F | 0.01 in | 5 mph WNW |
These are the models at the start of each day (ECMWF and GFS; waves from Météo-France), not readings from a weather station: there can be differences at specific spots.
Questions about the weather in Head of the HarborQuestions
What's the weather like today in Head of the Harbor?
Clear sky, from 47 °F to 67 °F, with a light breeze from the south-southeast (5 mph) and a 2% chance of rain.
Will it rain tomorrow in Head of the Harbor?
On Friday 30 the chance of rain is 5% (0.00 in): light drizzle.
How warm will it be this week?
Between a low of 43 °F and a high of 68 °F; the warmest day, Friday 30.
What's the UV index today?
It reaches 3 (moderate). Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.
Is the pressure rising or falling?
It's 30.30 inHg and falling: −0.13 inHg over the last 24 hours.
When is the best time to visit Head of the Harbor?
The best time to visit Head of the Harbor is from June to September: highs of 74 °F to 82 °F, about 9 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.
What is the weather like in Head of the Harbor in October?
In October, Head of the Harbor normally sees highs of 64 °F and lows of 47 °F, with about 8 rainy days (4.07 in for the month) and 5 hours of sunshine a day. The sea is around 64 °F. These are 1991–2020 averages.
What are the warmest and wettest months in Head of the Harbor?
The warmest is July, with average highs of 82 °F, and the coldest January, with lows of 24 °F. The wettest is March (4.24 in) and the driest, February.
When is hurricane season in Head of the Harbor?
Hurricane season: from July to September. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 9 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Head of the Harbor, about 3 every 10 years. The most recent: Henri, in August 2021.
More about Head of the Harbor today
Weather near Head of the Harbor
- East Setauket 50 °F · clear · 3.8 mi
- Oakdale 50 °F · clear · 11 mi
- Centerport 47 °F · clear · 11 mi
- Patchogue 51 °F · clear · 12 mi
- Huntington 47 °F · clear · 14 mi
Only places with a different forecast: spots a few miles apart share the same model cell and wouldn't add anything.
Learn more
Weather: Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0, with the best model for each spot and lead time (NOAA HRRR and NBM in the U.S., Météo-France AROME, DWD ICON-EU, ECMWF IFS and NOAA GFS); ECMWF grid point 12 mi away. The comparison also uses ICON (DWD), AIFS (ECMWF) and ARPEGE (Météo-France). Outlook: ECMWF 46-day and SEAS5. Chance of rain from ensemble models (ECMWF, GEFS and NBM). UV, air quality and pollen: CAMS (Copernicus).
Forecast from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) with models from ECMWF, NOAA, Météo-France, DWD, Copernicus Marine and CAMS. Updated at 3:25 am (local time).
Spotted a mistake? Tell us · Where the weather and sea data come from