Weather in Provincetown

14-day forecast · updated today, Wednesday, October 28, at 9:19 pm (EDT)

Now · clear 48 °F

Feels like: 43 °F
Low / high: 38 / 56 °F
Rain: 1%
Wind: 7 mph SW

↘ 30.38 inHg · falling

Today in Provincetown: overcast, 38 °F to 56 °F, with a 1% chance of rain and a light breeze from the southwest (7 mph). Tomorrow, clear sky, 50 °F to 63 °F and a 1% chance of rain. The warmest day of the week is Friday 30, at 65 °F. Next likely rain: Wednesday 4 (16%).

Measured now at the airport

Provincetown Muni (KPVC), 2.2 mi away · 23 min ago

Visibility9.9 mi or more

WeatherNothing to note

Temperature52 °F

Wind10 mph from the southwest

It's what the airport's weather station measured, not a forecast: on the coast, wind and fog can be different. Airports report every 30 or 60 minutes.

Airport METAR report, via NOAA's Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov). Sources and licenses

Temperatures for the next 14 days

56° 38°
Today
63° 50°
Thu 29
65° 51°
Fri 30
51° 45°
Sat 31
55° 46°
Sun 1
60° 50°
Mon 2
58° 51°
Tue 3
59° 51°
Wed 4
60° 51°
Thu 5
60° 52°
Fri 6
56° 49°
Sat 7
54° 48°
Sun 8
51° 47°
Mon 9
51° 50°
Tue 10

Day by day

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind	Max wave	High tides	Model
Today · 28	Overcast	38 / 56 °F	1%	9 mph SSW	1.7 ft	1:06 am · 1:18 pm	HRRR
Thu 29	Clear sky	50 / 63 °F	1%	18 mph SW	2.2 ft	1:57 am · 2:09 pm	HRRR + NBM
Fri 30	Overcast	51 / 65 °F	11%	16 mph W	3.3 ft	2:51 am · 3:04 pm	NBM
Sat 31	Mainly clear	45 / 51 °F	0%	16 mph NNW	4.6 ft	3:49 am · 4:04 pm	NBM
Sun 1	Clear sky	46 / 55 °F	0%	8 mph WSW	1.9 ft	3:50 am · 4:06 pm	NBM
Mon 2	Overcast	50 / 60 °F	5%	9 mph WSW	1.2 ft	4:52 am · 5:10 pm	NBM
Tue 3	Overcast	51 / 58 °F	9%	10 mph NE	1.6 ft	5:54 am · 6:15 pm	NBM
Wed 4	Overcast	51 / 59 °F	16% · 0.35 in	11 mph SE	2.4 ft	6:55 am · 7:18 pm	NBM
Thu 5	Overcast	51 / 60 °F	25% · 0.20 in	13 mph ESE	1.2 ft	7:51 am · 8:17 pm	NBM
Fri 6	Light drizzle	52 / 60 °F	44% · 0.54 in	15 mph ESE	2.3 ft	8:41 am · 9:10 pm	NBM
Sat 7	Light rain	49 / 56 °F	36% · 0.24 in	12 mph S	5.8 ft	9:28 am · 10:00 pm	NBM
Sun 8	Light drizzle	48 / 54 °F	21% · 0.09 in	15 mph NNW	5.5 ft	10:11 am · 10:47 pm	NBM + ECMWF
Mon 9	Clear sky	47 / 51 °F	23%	12 mph NW	2.2 ft	10:53 am · 11:31 pm	ECMWF
Tue 10	Overcast	50 / 51 °F	14%	15 mph ENE	2.2 ft	11:35 am	ECMWF

Each hour comes from the best model for this spot: HRRR until Thursday 29 4:00 pm; then NBM until Sunday 8 2:00 pm; then ECMWF until Thursday 12 10:00 am; then GFS.

Each day comes from the best model covering this spot: regional ones first (HRRR and NBM in the U.S., AROME, ICON-EU), then ECMWF; day 16, NOAA GFS. Waves: Météo-France up to day 10, then ECMWF WAM, coarser and further offshore. High tides: our own tide calculation.

Today, every 3 hours

Time	12:00 am	3:00 am	6:00 am	9:00 am	12:00 pm	3:00 pm	6:00 pm	9:00 pm
Sky	Clear	Clear	Clear	Mainly clear	Overcast	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy	Clear
Temperature	38°	38°	39°	49°	56°	55°	50°	48°
Chance of rain	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	1%	0%
Rain	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in
Wind (mph)	2 SE	2 WSW	4 SSE	1 ENE	7 SSW	8 SSW	4 S	7 SW
Humidity	55%	55%	52%	70%	56%	58%	69%	77%
UV	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0
Model	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR

Do the models agree?

Medium confidence

They broadly agree, but not quite on wind on Friday 30: take it with some caution.

What 6 forecast models say for the next few days. The closer they are, the more reliable the forecast.

HighRainWind

Do the models agree? · High
High (°F)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	55°	60°	59°	54°	54°	59°	60°
AIFS	53°	60°	62°	55°	53°	60°	62°
GFS	54°	59°	62°	52°	56°	59°	58°
ICON	55°	61°	62°	55°	56°	61°	58°
HRRR	56°	63°	—	—	—	—	—
NBM	55°	64°	65°	51°	55°	60°	58°
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	high	high

Do the models agree? · Rain
Rain	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
AIFS	0	0	0.05 in	0	0	0	0
GFS	0	0	0.00 in	0	0	0	0.02 in
ICON	0	0	0.01 in	0	0	0	0
HRRR	0	0	—	—	—	—	—
NBM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	high	high

Do the models agree? · Wind
Wind (mph)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	1419	2026	2534	2637	1525	2124	1921
AIFS	12	19	22	23	12	16	21
GFS	1517	2433	2936	3034	1619	1928	2221
ICON	1015	1525	1727	2439	1523	1523	2032
HRRR	917	1831	—	—	—	—	—
NBM	814	1423	1626	1626	814	914	1015
Confidence	high	high	medium	medium	high	high	high

Chance of rain from the ensemble models

Model	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF (51 scenarios)	0%	0%	8%	0%	2%	2%	6%
GFS (GEFS, 31 scenarios)	0%	0%	13%	0%	0%	23%	26%
NBM (NOAA)	1%	1%	11%	0%	0%	5%	9%
Thunderstorm (NBM)	0%	0%	2%	0%	0%	1%	1%

Each model's day runs midnight to midnight local time; models that reach fewer days are left blank. Rain: daily total. Wind: the day's highest average wind and, in small type, the strongest gust. Highlighted: values that stand out from the rest. The chance of rain comes from many runs of the same model with slightly different starting data.

Outlook

How the coming weeks and months compare with what is normal for the time of year. It is a trend, not a day-by-day forecast.

Next few weeks, compared with normal: a bit warmer, normal rain and a slightly warmer sea.

Next 6 weeks

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea	Typical high / low
Nov 2 – Nov 8Nov 2–Nov 8	Above +3.6 °F	Normal	A bit above +0.9 °F	—
Nov 9 – Nov 15Nov 9–Nov 15	A bit above +1.3 °F	Normal	A bit above +0.9 °F	51° / 49°
Nov 16 – Nov 22Nov 16–Nov 22	A bit above +1.6 °F	Normal	A bit above +0.7 °F	50° / 48°
Nov 23 – Nov 29Nov 23–Nov 29	A bit above +2.0 °F	A bit above +26%	A bit above +0.9 °F	49° / 46°
Nov 30 – Dec 6Nov 30–Dec 6	A bit above +1.8 °F	Normal	A bit above +0.9 °F	47° / 44°

Coming months

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea
November	A bit above +1.6 °F	Normal	A bit above +1.4 °F
December	Above +2.9 °F	Normal	Above +2.0 °F
January	Above +3.6 °F	A bit above +27%	Above +2.0 °F
February	Above +3.1 °F	Normal	Above +2.0 °F
March	Above +2.9 °F	Normal	Above +2.2 °F

Weeks: ECMWF 46-day (average of its scenarios), against the normal of the last 20 years for those dates. Months: ECMWF SEAS5. Rain: total against normal. The further ahead, the closer it gets to normal and the less detail it can give.

Provincetown climate by monthClimate by month

Normal weather for each month (1991–2020 averages)

The best time to visit Provincetown is from June to September: highs of 71 °F to 79 °F, about 9 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.

Hurricane season: from July to August, peaking in July. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 7 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Provincetown, about 2 every 10 years. The most recent: Henri, in August 2021.

39° 24°

JanJ
40° 25°

FebF
44° 30°

MarM
53° 39°

AprA
63° 48°

MayM
72° 57°

JunJ
79° 64°

JulJ
78° 63°

AugA
71° 56°

SepS
61° 46°

OctO
52° 38°

NovN
44° 30°

DecD

Highs and lows
Monthly rainfall
Best time

Month	High	Low	Rain	Rainy daysDays	Sun (h/day)	Water	Waves	Cyclones
JanuaryJan	39°	24°	3.74 in	9	3.2	42°	5.1 ft	–
FebruaryFeb	40°	25°	3.03 in	8	4.8	40°	4.9 ft	–
MarchMar	44°	30°	4.65 in	9	5.1	39°	5.0 ft	–
AprilApr	53°	39°	3.54 in	9	6.0	42°	4.1 ft	–
MayMay	63°	48°	2.94 in	9	6.6	49°	3.2 ft	–
JuneJun	72°	57°	3.56 in	9	7.1	58°	2.7 ft	–
JulyJul	79°	64°	2.58 in	9	7.8	65°	2.4 ft	4
AugustAug	78°	63°	3.04 in	9	7.3	67°	2.5 ft	2
SeptemberSep	71°	56°	3.87 in	8	6.0	63°	3.4 ft	1
OctoberOct	61°	46°	4.01 in	9	4.6	57°	4.2 ft	–
NovemberNov	52°	38°	4.44 in	8	3.2	51°	4.6 ft	–
DecemberDec	44°	30°	4.17 in	10	2.7	46°	4.7 ft	–

Month	Water	Waves	Cyclones
Jan	42°	5.1 ft	–
Feb	40°	4.9 ft	–
Mar	39°	5.0 ft	–
Apr	42°	4.1 ft	–
May	49°	3.2 ft	–
Jun	58°	2.7 ft	–
Jul	65°	2.4 ft	4
Aug	67°	2.5 ft	2
Sep	63°	3.4 ft	1
Oct	57°	4.2 ft	–
Nov	51°	4.6 ft	–
Dec	46°	4.7 ft	–

Days: rainy days in the month. Sun: hours a day.

A normal year brings 43.56 in of rain on about 105 days and about 1,950 hours of sunshine.

Cyclones: how many tropical cyclones (tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) passed within 93 mi in each month from 1996 to 2025, according to IBTrACS (NOAA).

1991–2020 averages. Highs, lows and rainfall: TerraClimate; rainy days (0.04 in or more): NASA POWER (MERRA-2); sunshine hours: estimated from solar radiation; water: NOAA OISST; waves (average height): ERA5, 2011–2020. Normals are not a forecast: any given year can turn out very different. Sources and licenses

Temperature

Now48 °Ffeels like 43 °F

Tomorrow50 / 63 °F

It's 48 °F now (feels like 43 °F). Today, 38 °F to 56 °F; tomorrow, 50 °F to 63 °F.

Chance of rain

Today 1%
Thu 29 1%
Fri 30 11%
Sat 31 0%
Sun 1 0%
Mon 2 5%
Tue 3 9%

Today the chance of rain reaches 1%. The next day with likely rain is Wednesday 4: 16% and 0.35 in.

No rain in the last 7 days.

Humidity and dew point

Humidity78%

Dew point41 °F

Humidity is 78% now and the dew point is 41 °F.

The dew point is the temperature at which the air becomes saturated: the higher it is, the heavier the air feels.

Visibility and fog

Now12 migood

Clouds5%

Visibility is good now (12 mi). No fog expected today.

UV index

Now0

Today's peak3low

Thu 29: 3 · Fri 30: 3 · Sat 31: 3

Index	Level	What to do
0–2	low	No special protection needed.
3–5	moderate	Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.
6–7	high	Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.
8–10	very high	Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.
11+	extreme	Avoid the sun between 11 am and 5 pm; protect yourself even if it is cloudy.

Reflection off water and sand adds radiation: protect yourself more on a boat or at the beach.

Barometric pressure

↗ Rising Anglers say fish bite less for a while
→ Steady Anglers expect normal activity
↘ Falling · now Anglers say fish feed more before the change

30.0030.2030.40 29.94

Falling now (−0.03 inHg in 3 hours). Over the next 48 hours: −0.27 inHg. Falling pressure: anglers say fish feed more before the change. Fast changes, either way, tend to affect fishing.

Air and pollen

Air qualityGood · 35

Saharan dustNo

Previous days

The weather over the last 30 days, as the models analyzed it. Tap a day to see it hour by hour.

Day	Sky	Low / high	Max wind
Tue 27	Mainly clear	49 / 58 °F	22 mph NNE
Mon 26	Mainly clear	50 / 61 °F	21 mph WSW
Sun 25	Mainly clear	49 / 57 °F	14 mph SSW
Sat 24	Clear sky	50 / 54 °F	13 mph N
Fri 23	Clear sky	48 / 55 °F	30 mph N
Thu 22	Overcast	54 / 58 °F	30 mph N
Wed 21	Overcast	54 / 56 °F	30 mph NE

Show all 30 days

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Tue 20	Overcast	53 / 58 °F	0	26 mph NNE
Mon 19	Partly cloudy	50 / 55 °F	0	18 mph ENE
Sun 18	Clear sky	46 / 52 °F	0	21 mph NNE
Sat 17	Drizzle	49 / 64 °F	0.24 in	28 mph NNW
Fri 16	Light rain	56 / 64 °F	0.46 in	25 mph SSW
Thu 15	Partly cloudy	56 / 61 °F	0	26 mph N
Wed 14	Rain	61 / 68 °F	0.57 in	21 mph W
Tue 13	Rain	57 / 63 °F	0.50 in	21 mph ESE
Mon 12	Light rain	56 / 64 °F	0.33 in	25 mph N
Sun 11	Rain	56 / 59 °F	0.86 in	23 mph SE
Sat 10	Overcast	55 / 59 °F	0	15 mph NW
Fri 9	Mainly clear	57 / 64 °F	0	16 mph W
Thu 8	Light drizzle	61 / 66 °F	0.01 in	20 mph WSW
Wed 7	Mainly clear	53 / 61 °F	0	19 mph SW
Tue 6	Clear sky	51 / 60 °F	0	24 mph WNW
Mon 5	Overcast	59 / 66 °F	0	25 mph WNW
Sun 4	Heavy drizzle	58 / 61 °F	0.13 in	17 mph ENE
Sat 3	Overcast	59 / 63 °F	0	15 mph NNE
Fri 2	Light drizzle	63 / 69 °F	0.01 in	23 mph SW
Thu 1	Overcast	61 / 67 °F	0	20 mph SW
Wed 30	Overcast	61 / 63 °F	0	13 mph SSE
Tue 29	Overcast	59 / 63 °F	0	19 mph NW
Mon 28	Rain	62 / 64 °F	0.67 in	26 mph ENE

These are the models at the start of each day (ECMWF and GFS; waves from Météo-France), not readings from a weather station: there can be differences at specific spots.

Questions about the weather in ProvincetownQuestions

What's the weather like today in Provincetown?

Overcast, from 38 °F to 56 °F, with a light breeze from the southwest (7 mph) and a 1% chance of rain.

Will it rain tomorrow in Provincetown?

On Thursday 29 the chance of rain is 1% (0.00 in): clear sky.

How warm will it be this week?

Between a low of 38 °F and a high of 65 °F; the warmest day, Friday 30.

What's the UV index today?

It reaches 3 (low). No special protection needed.

Is the pressure rising or falling?

It's 30.38 inHg and falling: −0.02 inHg over the last 24 hours.

When is the best time to visit Provincetown?

The best time to visit Provincetown is from June to September: highs of 71 °F to 79 °F, about 9 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.

What is the weather like in Provincetown in October?

In October, Provincetown normally sees highs of 61 °F and lows of 46 °F, with about 9 rainy days (4.01 in for the month) and 5 hours of sunshine a day. The sea is around 57 °F. These are 1991–2020 averages.

What are the warmest and wettest months in Provincetown?

The warmest is July, with average highs of 79 °F, and the coldest January, with lows of 24 °F. The wettest is March (4.65 in) and the driest, July.

When is hurricane season in Provincetown?

Hurricane season: from July to August, peaking in July. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 7 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Provincetown, about 2 every 10 years. The most recent: Henri, in August 2021.

More about Provincetown today

Weather near Provincetown

Only places with a different forecast: spots a few miles apart share the same model cell and wouldn't add anything.

Learn more

Weather: Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0, with the best model for each spot and lead time (NOAA HRRR and NBM in the U.S., Météo-France AROME, DWD ICON-EU, ECMWF IFS and NOAA GFS); ECMWF grid point 4.9 mi away. The comparison also uses ICON (DWD), AIFS (ECMWF) and ARPEGE (Météo-France). Outlook: ECMWF 46-day and SEAS5. Chance of rain from ensemble models (ECMWF, GEFS and NBM). UV, air quality and pollen: CAMS (Copernicus).

Forecast from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) with models from ECMWF, NOAA, Météo-France, DWD, Copernicus Marine and CAMS. Updated at 9:19 pm (local time).

Spotted a mistake? Tell us · Where the weather and sea data come from