Weather in Holmes Beach

14-day forecast · updated today, Wednesday, October 28, at 7:57 pm (EDT)

Now · overcast 76 °F

Feels like: 77 °F
Low / high: 71 / 82 °F
Rain: 6%
Wind: 15 mph NE

↗ 30.00 inHg · rising UV 6 · high

Today in Holmes Beach: overcast, 71 °F to 82 °F, with a 6% chance of rain and a moderate breeze from the northeast (15 mph). Tomorrow, light drizzle, 73 °F to 83 °F and a 12% chance of rain. The warmest day of the week is Friday 30, at 83 °F.

Measured now at the airport

Sarasota-Bradenton (KSRQ), 11 mi away · 18 min ago

Visibility9.9 mi or more

WeatherNothing to note

Temperature78 °F

Wind12 mph from the northeast

It's what the airport's weather station measured, not a forecast: on the coast, wind and fog can be different. Airports report every 30 or 60 minutes.

Airport METAR report, via NOAA's Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov). Sources and licenses

Temperatures for the next 14 days

82° 71°
Today
83° 73°
Thu 29
83° 72°
Fri 30
83° 73°
Sat 31
79° 72°
Sun 1
79° 70°
Mon 2
79° 69°
Tue 3
80° 69°
Wed 4
78° 71°
Thu 5
76° 69°
Fri 6
75° 67°
Sat 7
75° 64°
Sun 8
72° 59°
Mon 9
73° 63°
Tue 10

Day by day

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind	Max wave	High tides	Model
Today · 28	Overcast	71 / 82 °F	6%	20 mph NNE	2.0 ft	12:03 am	HRRR
Thu 29	Light drizzle	73 / 83 °F	12% · 0.09 in	15 mph NE	1.8 ft	12:43 am	HRRR + NBM
Fri 30	Light drizzle	72 / 83 °F	16%	15 mph NE	1.6 ft	1:31 am	NBM
Sat 31	Drizzle	73 / 83 °F	50% · 0.08 in	16 mph ENE	1.5 ft	2:31 am	NBM
Sun 1	Showers	72 / 79 °F	66% · 0.74 in	15 mph ENE	1.8 ft	2:49 am	NBM
Mon 2	Showers	70 / 79 °F	40% · 0.05 in	13 mph NE	1.9 ft	4:26 am · 8:04 pm	NBM
Tue 3	Light drizzle	69 / 79 °F	7%	12 mph NE	1.5 ft	6:18 am · 8:20 pm	NBM
Wed 4	Mainly clear	69 / 80 °F	14%	10 mph SE	1.0 ft	7:58 am · 8:37 pm	NBM
Thu 5	Drizzle	71 / 78 °F	18% · 0.02 in	13 mph SW	2.2 ft	9:13 am · 8:54 pm	NBM
Fri 6	Drizzle	69 / 76 °F	14% · 0.02 in	11 mph WNW	4.4 ft	10:15 am · 9:11 pm	NBM
Sat 7	Light drizzle	67 / 75 °F	4% · 0.03 in	10 mph N	4.4 ft	11:11 am · 9:29 pm	NBM
Sun 8	Light drizzle	64 / 75 °F	6%	10 mph NNE	3.3 ft	12:05 pm · 9:50 pm	NBM + ECMWF
Mon 9	Overcast	59 / 72 °F	7%	8 mph N	2.5 ft	10:14 pm	ECMWF
Tue 10	Light drizzle	63 / 73 °F	15% · 0.05 in	7 mph N	1.8 ft	10:41 pm	ECMWF

Each hour comes from the best model for this spot: HRRR until Thursday 29 2:00 pm; then NBM until Sunday 8 2:00 pm; then ECMWF until Thursday 12 10:00 am; then GFS.

Each day comes from the best model covering this spot: regional ones first (HRRR and NBM in the U.S., AROME, ICON-EU), then ECMWF; day 16, NOAA GFS. Waves: Météo-France up to day 10, then ECMWF WAM, coarser and further offshore. High tides: our own tide calculation.

Today, every 3 hours

Time	12:00 am	3:00 am	6:00 am	9:00 am	12:00 pm	3:00 pm	6:00 pm	9:00 pm
Sky	Partly cloudy	Clear	Clear	Mainly clear	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy	Overcast	Partly cloudy
Temperature	72°	71°	71°	73°	81°	82°	77°	75°
Chance of rain	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	6%
Rain	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in
Wind (mph)	16 NNE	17 NNE	17 NNE	18 NNE	15 NNE	15 NE	14 NNE	17 NE
Humidity	74%	76%	82%	80%	73%	65%	73%	80%
UV	0	0	0	1	6	4	0	0
Model	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR

Do the models agree?

High confidence

The models agree for the next few days: the forecast is fairly solid.

What 6 forecast models say for the next few days. The closer they are, the more reliable the forecast.

HighRainWind

Do the models agree? · High
High (°F)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	82°	86°	86°	83°	75°	81°	83°
AIFS	81°	86°	86°	86°	79°	76°	78°
GFS	79°	80°	81°	81°	78°	77°	76°
ICON	80°	82°	83°	82°	75°	76°	78°
HRRR	82°	83°	—	—	—	—	—
NBM	82°	83°	83°	83°	79°	79°	79°
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	high	high

Do the models agree? · Rain
Rain	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	0	0.01 in	0.01 in	0.17 in	0.92 in	0.49 in	0.05 in
AIFS	0	0	0.02 in	0.06 in	0.67 in	0.66 in	0.38 in
GFS	0.00 in	0.00 in	0	0.05 in	0.64 in	0.03 in	0
ICON	0	0	0	0	1.04 in	0.79 in	0
HRRR	0	0.02 in	—	—	—	—	—
NBM	0	0.09 in	0	0.08 in	0.74 in	0.05 in	0
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	medium	low

Do the models agree? · Wind
Wind (mph)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	1737	1225	1225	1530	1325	1017	1127
AIFS	17	12	11	12	13	15	14
GFS	2331	1929	1825	1927	1827	915	77
ICON	1727	1422	1121	1016	1119	1119	711
HRRR	2033	1526	—	—	—	—	—
NBM	2128	1623	1521	1623	1523	1318	1218
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	high	medium

Chance of rain from the ensemble models

Model	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF (51 scenarios)	35%	31%	57%	69%	67%	43%	37%
GFS (GEFS, 31 scenarios)	65%	46%	68%	82%	77%	19%	14%
NBM (NOAA)	6%	12%	16%	50%	66%	40%	7%
Thunderstorm (NBM)	1%	3%	16%	19%	26%	23%	6%

Each model's day runs midnight to midnight local time; models that reach fewer days are left blank. Rain: daily total. Wind: the day's highest average wind and, in small type, the strongest gust. Highlighted: values that stand out from the rest. The chance of rain comes from many runs of the same model with slightly different starting data.

Outlook

How the coming weeks and months compare with what is normal for the time of year. It is a trend, not a day-by-day forecast.

Next few weeks, compared with normal: normal temperatures, wetter and a slightly warmer sea.

Next 6 weeks

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea	Typical high / low
Nov 2 – Nov 8Nov 2–Nov 8	A bit above +2.2 °F	A bit above +45%	A bit above +0.7 °F	—
Nov 9 – Nov 15Nov 9–Nov 15	Normal −0.7 °F	Well above +125%	A bit above +0.9 °F	73° / 67°
Nov 16 – Nov 22Nov 16–Nov 22	Normal +0.5 °F	Above +60%	Normal +0.4 °F	73° / 67°
Nov 23 – Nov 29Nov 23–Nov 29	Normal +0.4 °F	Well above +125%	A bit above +0.5 °F	71° / 67°
Nov 30 – Dec 6Nov 30–Dec 6	Normal +0.2 °F	Well above +182%	Normal +0.4 °F	70° / 65°

Coming months

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea
November	A bit above +1.4 °F	Well above +114%	—
December	Normal +0.4 °F	Well above +109%	—
January	Normal −0.7 °F	Well above +122%	—
February	A bit below −0.9 °F	Well above +133%	—
March	A bit below −1.1 °F	Well above +125%	—

Weeks: ECMWF 46-day (average of its scenarios), against the normal of the last 20 years for those dates. Months: ECMWF SEAS5. Rain: total against normal. The further ahead, the closer it gets to normal and the less detail it can give.

Holmes Beach climate by monthClimate by month

Normal weather for each month (1991–2020 averages)

The best time to visit Holmes Beach is from February to May and from November to December: highs of 71 °F to 86 °F, about 7 rainy days a month and 8 hours of sunshine a day.

Hurricane season: from July to November, peaking in September. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 18 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Holmes Beach, about 6 every 10 years; 8 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Milton, in October 2024.

69° 53°

JanJ
71° 55°

FebF
75° 60°

MarM
80° 64°

AprA
86° 69°

MayM
89° 74°

JunJ
90° 75°

JulJ
90° 76°

AugA
88° 74°

SepS
84° 69°

OctO
77° 61°

NovN
72° 56°

DecD

Highs and lows
Monthly rainfall
Best time

Month	High	Low	Rain	Rainy daysDays	Sun (h/day)	Water	Waves	Cyclones
JanuaryJan	69°	53°	2.10 in	7	6.3	65°	1.1 ft	–
FebruaryFeb	71°	55°	2.71 in	6	6.5	65°	0.9 ft	–
MarchMar	75°	60°	2.67 in	7	7.6	68°	1.0 ft	–
AprilApr	80°	64°	1.54 in	7	8.6	73°	1.0 ft	–
MayMay	86°	69°	3.01 in	9	9.5	79°	0.9 ft	–
JuneJun	89°	74°	7.73 in	21	7.9	83°	0.8 ft	1
JulyJul	90°	75°	7.49 in	25	7.9	86°	0.7 ft	2
AugustAug	90°	76°	8.93 in	25	7.4	86°	0.8 ft	3
SeptemberSep	88°	74°	7.60 in	20	6.5	85°	0.8 ft	9
OctoberOct	84°	69°	2.50 in	9	6.5	80°	1.0 ft	1
NovemberNov	77°	61°	1.89 in	5	6.6	73°	1.0 ft	2
DecemberDec	72°	56°	2.24 in	5	5.7	69°	1.0 ft	–

Month	Water	Waves	Cyclones
Jan	65°	1.1 ft	–
Feb	65°	0.9 ft	–
Mar	68°	1.0 ft	–
Apr	73°	1.0 ft	–
May	79°	0.9 ft	–
Jun	83°	0.8 ft	1
Jul	86°	0.7 ft	2
Aug	86°	0.8 ft	3
Sep	85°	0.8 ft	9
Oct	80°	1.0 ft	1
Nov	73°	1.0 ft	2
Dec	69°	1.0 ft	–

Days: rainy days in the month. Sun: hours a day.

A normal year brings 50.41 in of rain on about 145 days and about 2,650 hours of sunshine.

Cyclones: how many tropical cyclones (tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) passed within 93 mi in each month from 1996 to 2025, according to IBTrACS (NOAA).

1991–2020 averages. Highs, lows and rainfall: TerraClimate; rainy days (0.04 in or more): NASA POWER (MERRA-2); sunshine hours: estimated from solar radiation; water: NOAA OISST; waves (average height): ERA5, 2011–2020. Normals are not a forecast: any given year can turn out very different. Sources and licenses

Temperature

Now76 °Ffeels like 77 °F

Tomorrow73 / 83 °F

It's 76 °F now (feels like 77 °F). Today, 71 °F to 82 °F; tomorrow, 73 °F to 83 °F.

Chance of rain

Today 6%
Thu 29 12% 0.09 in
Fri 30 16%
Sat 31 50% 0.08 in
Sun 1 66% 0.74 in
Mon 2 40% 0.05 in
Tue 3 7%

Today the chance of rain reaches 6%. The next day with likely rain is Thursday 29: 12% and 0.09 in.

Recent rain: last 24 hours, 0.00 in; last 3 days, 0.00 in; last 7 days, 0.01 in.

Humidity and dew point

Humidity78%

Dew point69 °F

Humidity is 78% now and the dew point is 69 °F. With a dew point this high, it feels muggy.

The dew point is the temperature at which the air becomes saturated: the higher it is, the heavier the air feels.

Visibility and fog

Now12 migood

Clouds100%

Visibility is good now (12 mi). No fog expected today.

UV index

Now0

Today's peak6high

Thu 29: 6 · Fri 30: 5 · Sat 31: 6

Index	Level	What to do
0–2	low	No special protection needed.
3–5	moderate	Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.
6–7	high	Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.
8–10	very high	Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.
11+	extreme	Avoid the sun between 11 am and 5 pm; protect yourself even if it is cloudy.

Reflection off water and sand adds radiation: protect yourself more on a boat or at the beach.

Barometric pressure

↗ Rising · now Anglers say fish bite less for a while
→ Steady Anglers expect normal activity
↘ Falling Anglers say fish feed more before the change

29.9030.0030.10 30.05

Rising now (+0.04 inHg in 3 hours). It barely changes over the next 48 hours. Rising pressure: anglers say fish bite less for a while. Fast changes, either way, tend to affect fishing.

Air and pollen

Air qualityGood · 50

Saharan dustNo

Previous days

The weather over the last 30 days, as the models analyzed it. Tap a day to see it hour by hour.

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Tue 27	Overcast	66 / 83 °F	0	14 mph NNE
Mon 26	Overcast	68 / 85 °F	0	17 mph NE
Sun 25	Light drizzle	68 / 85 °F	0.01 in	16 mph NE
Sat 24	Partly cloudy	62 / 82 °F	0	12 mph NNE
Fri 23	Mainly clear	58 / 81 °F	0	12 mph NE
Thu 22	Clear sky	61 / 80 °F	0	10 mph NNE
Wed 21	Mainly clear	60 / 82 °F	0	10 mph NE

Show all 30 days

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Tue 20	Mainly clear	61 / 81 °F	0	11 mph NE
Mon 19	Light drizzle	65 / 79 °F	0.02 in	14 mph NE
Sun 18	Partly cloudy	64 / 81 °F	0	14 mph NE
Sat 17	Thunderstorm	66 / 76 °F	1.38 in	13 mph NNE
Fri 16	Light showers	74 / 89 °F	0.47 in	7 mph E
Thu 15	Light drizzle	71 / 90 °F	0.06 in	9 mph ENE
Wed 14	Partly cloudy	71 / 87 °F	0	8 mph ENE
Tue 13	Partly cloudy	67 / 86 °F	0	7 mph NE
Mon 12	Clear sky	70 / 85 °F	0	9 mph N
Sun 11	Thunderstorm	75 / 83 °F	0.44 in	9 mph W
Sat 10	Thunderstorm	78 / 87 °F	0.32 in	10 mph SSE
Fri 9	Thunderstorm	73 / 88 °F	0.20 in	12 mph SE
Thu 8	Thunderstorm	73 / 80 °F	3.17 in	7 mph E
Wed 7	Thunderstorm	75 / 79 °F	1.51 in	7 mph SSE
Tue 6	Thunderstorm	74 / 83 °F	0.93 in	9 mph E
Mon 5	Light drizzle	75 / 90 °F	0.08 in	9 mph ESE
Sun 4	Thunderstorm	76 / 89 °F	0.41 in	8 mph E
Sat 3	Thunderstorm	75 / 89 °F	0.53 in	7 mph E
Fri 2	Drizzle	75 / 84 °F	0.14 in	11 mph E
Thu 1	Heavy drizzle	71 / 85 °F	0.15 in	12 mph E
Wed 30	Drizzle	69 / 88 °F	0.26 in	6 mph E
Tue 29	Drizzle	70 / 80 °F	0.21 in	8 mph ESE
Mon 28	Overcast	64 / 87 °F	0	7 mph SSW

These are the models at the start of each day (ECMWF and GFS; waves from Météo-France), not readings from a weather station: there can be differences at specific spots.

Questions about the weather in Holmes BeachQuestions

What's the weather like today in Holmes Beach?

Overcast, from 71 °F to 82 °F, with a moderate breeze from the northeast (15 mph) and a 6% chance of rain.

Will it rain tomorrow in Holmes Beach?

On Thursday 29 the chance of rain is 12% (0.09 in): light drizzle.

How warm will it be this week?

Between a low of 69 °F and a high of 83 °F; the warmest day, Friday 30.

What's the UV index today?

It reaches 6 (high). Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.

Is the pressure rising or falling?

It's 30.00 inHg and rising: −0.03 inHg over the last 24 hours.

When is the best time to visit Holmes Beach?

The best time to visit Holmes Beach is from February to May and from November to December: highs of 71 °F to 86 °F, about 7 rainy days a month and 8 hours of sunshine a day.

What is the weather like in Holmes Beach in October?

In October, Holmes Beach normally sees highs of 84 °F and lows of 69 °F, with about 9 rainy days (2.50 in for the month) and 7 hours of sunshine a day. The sea is around 80 °F. These are 1991–2020 averages.

What are the warmest and wettest months in Holmes Beach?

The warmest is August, with average highs of 90 °F, and the coldest January, with lows of 53 °F. The wettest is August (8.93 in) and the driest, April.

When is hurricane season in Holmes Beach?

Hurricane season: from July to November, peaking in September. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 18 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Holmes Beach, about 6 every 10 years; 8 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Milton, in October 2024.

More about Holmes Beach today

Weather near Holmes Beach

Only places with a different forecast: spots a few miles apart share the same model cell and wouldn't add anything.

Learn more

Weather: Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0, with the best model for each spot and lead time (NOAA HRRR and NBM in the U.S., Météo-France AROME, DWD ICON-EU, ECMWF IFS and NOAA GFS); ECMWF grid point 13 mi away. The comparison also uses ICON (DWD), AIFS (ECMWF) and ARPEGE (Météo-France). Outlook: ECMWF 46-day and SEAS5. Chance of rain from ensemble models (ECMWF, GEFS and NBM). UV, air quality and pollen: CAMS (Copernicus).

Forecast from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) with models from ECMWF, NOAA, Météo-France, DWD, Copernicus Marine and CAMS. Updated at 7:57 pm (local time).

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