Weather in Ellenton

14-day forecast · updated today, Thursday, October 29, at 9:04 am (EDT)

Now · partly cloudy 73 °F

Feels like: 76 °F
Low / high: 69 / 87 °F
Rain: 5%
Wind: 8 mph NE

→ 30.01 inHg · steady UV 6 · high

Today in Ellenton: light drizzle, 69 °F to 87 °F, with a 5% chance of rain and a gentle breeze from the northeast (8 mph). Tomorrow, light drizzle, 72 °F to 86 °F and a 9% chance of rain. The warmest day of the week is Thursday 29, at 87 °F. Next likely rain: Saturday 31 (44%).

Measured now at the airport

Sarasota-Bradenton (KSRQ), 8.5 mi away · 11 min ago

Visibility9.9 mi or more

WeatherNothing to note

Temperature75 °F

Wind10 mph from the northeast

It's what the airport's weather station measured, not a forecast: on the coast, wind and fog can be different. Airports report every 30 or 60 minutes.

Airport METAR report, via NOAA's Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov). Sources and licenses

Temperatures for the next 14 days

87° 69°
Today
86° 72°
Fri 30
85° 73°
Sat 31
81° 71°
Sun 1
82° 69°
Mon 2
83° 67°
Tue 3
83° 67°
Wed 4
81° 68°
Thu 5
79° 67°
Fri 6
77° 64°
Sat 7
76° 61°
Sun 8
78° 57°
Mon 9
76° 60°
Tue 10
81° 57°
Wed 11

Day by day

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind	Max wave	High tides	Model
Today · 29	Light drizzle	69 / 87 °F	5%	11 mph NE	1.5 ft	2:33 am	HRRR
Fri 30	Light drizzle	72 / 86 °F	9%	14 mph NE	1.2 ft	3:20 am	HRRR + NBM
Sat 31	Light drizzle	73 / 85 °F	44% · 0.02 in	15 mph ENE	1.4 ft	4:11 am	NBM
Sun 1	Showers	71 / 81 °F	64% · 0.56 in	14 mph ENE	1.4 ft	4:12 am · 9:01 pm	NBM
Mon 2	Light drizzle	69 / 82 °F	41% · 0.08 in	13 mph ENE	1.6 ft	5:36 am · 9:35 pm	NBM
Tue 3	Light drizzle	67 / 83 °F	13%	10 mph ENE	1.3 ft	7:44 am · 10:05 pm	NBM
Wed 4	Light drizzle	67 / 83 °F	9%	7 mph E	0.9 ft	9:27 am · 10:33 pm	NBM
Thu 5	Light drizzle	68 / 81 °F	20% · 0.02 in	10 mph WSW	2.0 ft	10:49 am · 10:57 pm	NBM
Fri 6	Light drizzle	67 / 79 °F	11%	11 mph NW	3.1 ft	11:56 am · 11:19 pm	NBM
Sat 7	Overcast	64 / 77 °F	6%	9 mph NNW	3.2 ft	12:52 pm · 11:35 pm	NBM
Sun 8	Mainly clear	61 / 76 °F	4% · 0.02 in	9 mph NNE	2.1 ft	1:41 pm · 11:48 pm	NBM
Mon 9	Overcast	57 / 78 °F	4% · 0.01 in	6 mph E	1.1 ft	2:25 pm	NBM + ECMWF
Tue 10	Overcast	60 / 76 °F	12%	6 mph NW	0.9 ft	12:02 am · 3:10 pm	ECMWF
Wed 11	Overcast	57 / 81 °F	16%	6 mph NNE	1.2 ft	12:25 am · 3:56 pm	ECMWF

Each hour comes from the best model for this spot: HRRR until Friday 30 4:00 am; then NBM until Monday 9 2:00 am; then ECMWF until Thursday 12 10:00 pm; then GFS.

Each day comes from the best model covering this spot: regional ones first (HRRR and NBM in the U.S., AROME, ICON-EU), then ECMWF; day 16, NOAA GFS. Waves: Météo-France up to day 10, then ECMWF WAM, coarser and further offshore. High tides: our own tide calculation.

Today, every 3 hours

Time	12:00 am	3:00 am	6:00 am	9:00 am	12:00 pm	3:00 pm	6:00 pm	9:00 pm
Sky	Clear	Clear	Clear	Mainly clear	Overcast	Light drizzle	Mainly clear	Clear
Temperature	72°	72°	71°	72°	81°	86°	84°	77°
Chance of rain	0%	2%	0%	0%	1%	2%	4%	1%
Rain	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in
Wind (mph)	8 NE	8 NNE	6 NNE	8 NE	11 NE	11 NE	9 NE	6 NE
Humidity	84%	87%	91%	88%	73%	56%	58%	73%
UV	0	0	0	1	5	4	0	0
Model	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR

Do the models agree?

Medium confidence

They broadly agree, but not quite on rain on Saturday 31: take it with some caution.

What 6 forecast models say for the next few days. The closer they are, the more reliable the forecast.

HighRainWind

Do the models agree? · High
High (°F)	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF	86°	86°	84°	74°	80°	83°	83°
AIFS	86°	86°	84°	79°	75°	82°	82°
GFS	87°	85°	84°	85°	82°	85°	83°
ICON	85°	85°	83°	75°	76°	82°	83°
HRRR	87°	83°	—	—	—	—	—
NBM	86°	86°	85°	81°	82°	83°	83°
Confidence	high	high	high	medium	high	high	high

Do the models agree? · Rain
Rain	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF	0.02 in	0.01 in	0.01 in	0.90 in	0.04 in	0.06 in	0.09 in
AIFS	0	0.02 in	0.19 in	0.83 in	1.39 in	0.34 in	0.13 in
GFS	0	0	0	0.35 in	0.23 in	0.07 in	0
ICON	0.00 in	0	0.06 in	1.32 in	1.40 in	0.11 in	0
HRRR	0	0.02 in	—	—	—	—	—
NBM	0	0	0.02 in	0.56 in	0.08 in	0	0
Confidence	high	high	medium	high	medium	high	medium

Do the models agree? · Wind
Wind (mph)	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF	1226	1123	1530	1225	1617	1227	820
AIFS	13	11	13	13	12	9	5
GFS	1630	1625	1627	1728	1120	1224	1021
ICON	1121	1222	1323	1121	1019	1122	918
HRRR	1128	1729	—	—	—	—	—
NBM	1323	1421	1524	1422	1320	1017	714
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	high	high

Chance of rain from the ensemble models

Model	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF (51 scenarios)	53%	57%	49%	78%	61%	55%	45%
GFS (GEFS, 31 scenarios)	26%	16%	58%	65%	42%	30%	19%
NBM (NOAA)	5%	9%	44%	64%	41%	13%	9%
Thunderstorm (NBM)	1%	15%	13%	31%	25%	14%	11%

Each model's day runs midnight to midnight local time; models that reach fewer days are left blank. Rain: daily total. Wind: the day's highest average wind and, in small type, the strongest gust. Highlighted: values that stand out from the rest. The chance of rain comes from many runs of the same model with slightly different starting data.

Outlook

How the coming weeks and months compare with what is normal for the time of year. It is a trend, not a day-by-day forecast.

Next few weeks, compared with normal: normal temperatures and wetter.

Next 6 weeks

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Typical high / low
Nov 2 – Nov 8Nov 2–Nov 8	A bit above +2.5 °F	Above +52%	—
Nov 9 – Nov 15Nov 9–Nov 15	A bit below −2.0 °F	Well above +112%	—
Nov 16 – Nov 22Nov 16–Nov 22	Normal −0.2 °F	Above +62%	77° / 62°
Nov 23 – Nov 29Nov 23–Nov 29	Normal 0.0 °F	Well above +119%	75° / 62°
Nov 30 – Dec 6Nov 30–Dec 6	Normal −0.5 °F	Well above +186%	73° / 61°

Coming months

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain
November	A bit above +1.4 °F	Above +99%
December	Normal −0.2 °F	Well above +124%
January	A bit below −1.3 °F	Well above +135%
February	A bit below −1.3 °F	Well above +146%
March	A bit below −1.4 °F	Well above +132%

Weeks: ECMWF 46-day (average of its scenarios), against the normal of the last 20 years for those dates. Months: ECMWF SEAS5. Rain: total against normal. The further ahead, the closer it gets to normal and the less detail it can give. The long-range sea temperature isn't usable at this spot (the model's grid cell falls on land).

Ellenton climate by monthClimate by month

Normal weather for each month (1991–2020 averages)

The best time to visit Ellenton is from November to April: highs of 71 °F to 82 °F, about 6 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.

Hurricane season: from July to November, peaking in September. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 17 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Ellenton, about 6 every 10 years; 8 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Milton, in October 2024.

71° 52°

JanJ
74° 54°

FebF
78° 58°

MarM
82° 63°

AprA
88° 68°

MayM
90° 73°

JunJ
91° 75°

JulJ
91° 75°

AugA
89° 74°

SepS
85° 68°

OctO
79° 60°

NovN
74° 55°

DecD

Highs and lows
Monthly rainfall
Best time

Month	High	Low	Rain	Rainy daysDays	Sun (h/day)	Water	Waves	Cyclones
JanuaryJan	71°	52°	2.29 in	7	6.1	65°	1.1 ft	–
FebruaryFeb	74°	54°	2.72 in	6	6.5	65°	0.9 ft	–
MarchMar	78°	58°	2.73 in	7	7.4	68°	1.0 ft	–
AprilApr	82°	63°	1.59 in	7	8.3	73°	1.0 ft	–
MayMay	88°	68°	3.04 in	9	8.9	79°	0.9 ft	–
JuneJun	90°	73°	7.72 in	21	7.2	83°	0.8 ft	1
JulyJul	91°	75°	7.54 in	25	7.3	86°	0.7 ft	2
AugustAug	91°	75°	8.76 in	25	7.0	86°	0.8 ft	3
SeptemberSep	89°	74°	7.53 in	20	6.2	85°	0.8 ft	8
OctoberOct	85°	68°	2.42 in	9	6.4	80°	1.0 ft	1
NovemberNov	79°	60°	1.93 in	5	6.5	73°	1.0 ft	2
DecemberDec	74°	55°	2.32 in	5	5.6	69°	1.0 ft	–

Month	Water	Waves	Cyclones
Jan	65°	1.1 ft	–
Feb	65°	0.9 ft	–
Mar	68°	1.0 ft	–
Apr	73°	1.0 ft	–
May	79°	0.9 ft	–
Jun	83°	0.8 ft	1
Jul	86°	0.7 ft	2
Aug	86°	0.8 ft	3
Sep	85°	0.8 ft	8
Oct	80°	1.0 ft	1
Nov	73°	1.0 ft	2
Dec	69°	1.0 ft	–

Days: rainy days in the month. Sun: hours a day.

A normal year brings 50.57 in of rain on about 145 days and about 2,550 hours of sunshine.

Cyclones: how many tropical cyclones (tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) passed within 93 mi in each month from 1996 to 2025, according to IBTrACS (NOAA).

1991–2020 averages. Highs, lows and rainfall: TerraClimate; rainy days (0.04 in or more): NASA POWER (MERRA-2); sunshine hours: estimated from solar radiation; water: NOAA OISST; waves (average height): ERA5, 2011–2020. Normals are not a forecast: any given year can turn out very different. Sources and licenses

Temperature

Now73 °Ffeels like 76 °F

Tomorrow72 / 86 °F

It's 73 °F now (feels like 76 °F). Today, 69 °F to 87 °F; tomorrow, 72 °F to 86 °F.

Chance of rain

Today 5%
Fri 30 9%
Sat 31 44% 0.02 in
Sun 1 64% 0.56 in
Mon 2 41% 0.08 in
Tue 3 13%
Wed 4 9%

Today the chance of rain reaches 5%. The next day with likely rain is Saturday 31: 44% and 0.02 in.

Recent rain: last 24 hours, 0.00 in; last 3 days, 0.00 in; last 7 days, 0.01 in.

Humidity and dew point

Humidity88%

Dew point69 °F

Humidity is 88% now and the dew point is 69 °F. With a dew point this high, it feels muggy.

The dew point is the temperature at which the air becomes saturated: the higher it is, the heavier the air feels.

Visibility and fog

Now9.2 migood

Clouds78%

Visibility is good now (9.2 mi). No fog expected today.

UV index

Now1

Today's peak6high

Fri 30: 6 · Sat 31: 6 · Sun 1: 5

Index	Level	What to do
0–2	low	No special protection needed.
3–5	moderate	Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.
6–7	high	Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.
8–10	very high	Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.
11+	extreme	Avoid the sun between 11 am and 5 pm; protect yourself even if it is cloudy.

Reflection off water and sand adds radiation: protect yourself more on a boat or at the beach.

Barometric pressure

↗ Rising Anglers say fish bite less for a while
→ Steady · now Anglers expect normal activity
↘ Falling Anglers say fish feed more before the change

29.9030.0030.10 29.93

Steady now (+0.03 inHg in 3 hours). Over the next 48 hours: +0.06 inHg. Steady pressure: anglers expect normal activity. Fast changes, either way, tend to affect fishing.

Air and pollen

Air qualityGood · 43

Saharan dustNo

Previous days

The weather over the last 30 days, as the models analyzed it. Tap a day to see it hour by hour.

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Wed 28	Light drizzle	70 / 83 °F	0.02 in	16 mph NE
Tue 27	Overcast	66 / 83 °F	0	14 mph NNE
Mon 26	Overcast	68 / 85 °F	0	17 mph NE
Sun 25	Light drizzle	68 / 85 °F	0.01 in	16 mph NE
Sat 24	Partly cloudy	62 / 82 °F	0	12 mph NNE
Fri 23	Mainly clear	58 / 81 °F	0	12 mph NE
Thu 22	Clear sky	61 / 80 °F	0	10 mph NNE

Show all 30 days

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Wed 21	Mainly clear	60 / 82 °F	0	10 mph NE
Tue 20	Mainly clear	61 / 81 °F	0	11 mph NE
Mon 19	Light drizzle	65 / 79 °F	0.02 in	14 mph NE
Sun 18	Partly cloudy	64 / 81 °F	0	14 mph NE
Sat 17	Thunderstorm	66 / 76 °F	1.38 in	13 mph NNE
Fri 16	Light showers	74 / 89 °F	0.47 in	7 mph E
Thu 15	Light drizzle	71 / 90 °F	0.06 in	9 mph ENE
Wed 14	Partly cloudy	71 / 87 °F	0	8 mph ENE
Tue 13	Partly cloudy	67 / 86 °F	0	7 mph NE
Mon 12	Clear sky	70 / 85 °F	0	9 mph N
Sun 11	Thunderstorm	75 / 83 °F	0.44 in	9 mph W
Sat 10	Thunderstorm	78 / 87 °F	0.32 in	10 mph SSE
Fri 9	Thunderstorm	73 / 88 °F	0.20 in	12 mph SE
Thu 8	Thunderstorm	73 / 80 °F	3.17 in	7 mph E
Wed 7	Thunderstorm	75 / 79 °F	1.51 in	7 mph SSE
Tue 6	Thunderstorm	74 / 83 °F	0.93 in	9 mph E
Mon 5	Light drizzle	75 / 90 °F	0.08 in	9 mph ESE
Sun 4	Thunderstorm	76 / 89 °F	0.41 in	8 mph E
Sat 3	Thunderstorm	75 / 89 °F	0.53 in	7 mph E
Fri 2	Drizzle	75 / 84 °F	0.14 in	11 mph E
Thu 1	Heavy drizzle	71 / 85 °F	0.15 in	12 mph E
Wed 30	Drizzle	69 / 88 °F	0.26 in	6 mph E
Tue 29	Drizzle	70 / 80 °F	0.21 in	8 mph ESE

These are the models at the start of each day (ECMWF and GFS; waves from Météo-France), not readings from a weather station: there can be differences at specific spots.

Questions about the weather in EllentonQuestions

What's the weather like today in Ellenton?

Light drizzle, from 69 °F to 87 °F, with a gentle breeze from the northeast (8 mph) and a 5% chance of rain.

Will it rain tomorrow in Ellenton?

On Friday 30 the chance of rain is 9% (0.00 in): light drizzle.

How warm will it be this week?

Between a low of 67 °F and a high of 87 °F; the warmest day, Thursday 29.

What's the UV index today?

It reaches 6 (high). Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.

Is the pressure rising or falling?

It's 30.01 inHg and steady: −0.00 inHg over the last 24 hours.

When is the best time to visit Ellenton?

The best time to visit Ellenton is from November to April: highs of 71 °F to 82 °F, about 6 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.

What is the weather like in Ellenton in October?

In October, Ellenton normally sees highs of 85 °F and lows of 68 °F, with about 9 rainy days (2.42 in for the month) and 6 hours of sunshine a day. The sea is around 80 °F. These are 1991–2020 averages.

What are the warmest and wettest months in Ellenton?

The warmest is August, with average highs of 91 °F, and the coldest January, with lows of 52 °F. The wettest is August (8.76 in) and the driest, April.

When is hurricane season in Ellenton?

Hurricane season: from July to November, peaking in September. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 17 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Ellenton, about 6 every 10 years; 8 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Milton, in October 2024.

More about Ellenton today

Weather near Ellenton

Only places with a different forecast: spots a few miles apart share the same model cell and wouldn't add anything.

Learn more

Weather: Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0, with the best model for each spot and lead time (NOAA HRRR and NBM in the U.S., Météo-France AROME, DWD ICON-EU, ECMWF IFS and NOAA GFS); ECMWF grid point 2.3 mi away. The comparison also uses ICON (DWD), AIFS (ECMWF) and ARPEGE (Météo-France). Outlook: ECMWF 46-day and SEAS5. Chance of rain from ensemble models (ECMWF, GEFS and NBM). UV, air quality and pollen: CAMS (Copernicus).

Forecast from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) with models from ECMWF, NOAA, Météo-France, DWD, Copernicus Marine and CAMS. Updated at 9:04 am (local time).

Spotted a mistake? Tell us · Where the weather and sea data come from