Weather in Chelem

14-day forecast · updated today, Wednesday, October 28, at 5:29 pm (CST)

Now · clear sky 77 °F

Feels like: 80 °F
Low / high: 73 / 83 °F
Rain: 53% · 0.04 in
Wind: 5 mph NNE

→ 29.96 inHg · steady UV 8 · very high

Today in Chelem: light drizzle, 73 °F to 83 °F, with a 53% chance of rain (0.04 in) and a light breeze from the north-northeast (5 mph). Tomorrow, light drizzle, 76 °F to 83 °F and a 69% chance of rain. The warmest day of the week is Saturday 31, at 87 °F.

Temperatures for the next 14 days

83° 73°
Today
83° 76°
Thu 29
86° 72°
Fri 30
87° 71°
Sat 31
86° 72°
Sun 1
85° 75°
Mon 2
86° 71°
Tue 3
87° 73°
Wed 4
82° 73°
Thu 5
82° 73°
Fri 6
80° 72°
Sat 7
79° 69°
Sun 8
81° 71°
Mon 9
82° 70°
Tue 10

Day by day

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind	Max wave	High tides	Model
Today · 28	Light drizzle	73 / 83 °F	53% · 0.04 in	10 mph NE	2.6 ft	8:27 pm	ECMWF
Thu 29	Light drizzle	76 / 83 °F	69% · 0.07 in	10 mph NNW	2.4 ft	9:28 pm	ECMWF
Fri 30	Light drizzle	72 / 86 °F	37% · 0.02 in	9 mph ENE	2.2 ft	10:20 pm	ECMWF
Sat 31	Light drizzle	71 / 87 °F	37% · 0.01 in	10 mph ENE	1.9 ft	11:04 pm	ECMWF
Sun 1	Light drizzle	72 / 86 °F	33% · 0.01 in	9 mph NE	1.8 ft	11:33 pm	ECMWF
Mon 2	Light drizzle	75 / 85 °F	32% · 0.04 in	9 mph NNE	1.2 ft	11:36 pm	ECMWF
Tue 3	Partly cloudy	71 / 86 °F	29%	9 mph NE	1.9 ft	11:31 pm	ECMWF
Wed 4	Light drizzle	73 / 87 °F	27% · 0.05 in	7 mph E	1.7 ft	11:35 am · 11:20 pm	ECMWF
Thu 5	Drizzle	73 / 82 °F	36% · 0.19 in	10 mph WNW	4.3 ft	1:59 pm · 10:44 pm	ECMWF
Fri 6	Light drizzle	73 / 82 °F	25% · 0.02 in	16 mph WNW	4.8 ft	3:34 pm	ECMWF
Sat 7	Light drizzle	72 / 80 °F	14% · 0.02 in	13 mph W	1.9 ft	4:50 pm	ECMWF
Sun 8	Light drizzle	69 / 79 °F	19% · 0.05 in	8 mph NNW	1.9 ft	5:56 pm	ECMWF
Mon 9	Partly cloudy	71 / 81 °F	22%	8 mph NNE	1.3 ft	6:52 pm	ECMWF
Tue 10	Overcast	70 / 82 °F	25%	8 mph NNE	1.3 ft	7:39 pm	ECMWF

Each day comes from the best model covering this spot: regional ones first (HRRR and NBM in the U.S., AROME, ICON-EU), then ECMWF; day 16, NOAA GFS. Waves: Météo-France up to day 10, then ECMWF WAM, coarser and further offshore. High tides: our own tide calculation.

Today, every 3 hours

Time	12:00 am	3:00 am	6:00 am	9:00 am	12:00 pm	3:00 pm	6:00 pm	9:00 pm
Sky	Clear	Light drizzle	Light drizzle	Overcast	Mainly clear	Mainly clear	Clear	Clear
Temperature	76°	73°	74°	82°	83°	82°	76°	76°
Chance of rain	0%	53%	22%	25%	0%	0%	0%	2%
Rain	0.00 in	0.01 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in
Wind (mph)	6 NE	4 ENE	4 ENE	6 NE	10 NNE	9 NNE	4 NNE	7 NE
Humidity	80%	91%	89%	66%	58%	53%	69%	76%
UV	0	0	0	4	8	2	0	0
Model	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF

Do the models agree?

Medium confidence

They broadly agree, but not quite on rain tomorrow: take it with some caution.

What 4 forecast models say for the next few days. The closer they are, the more reliable the forecast.

HighRainWind

Do the models agree? · High
High (°F)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	83°	83°	86°	87°	86°	85°	86°
AIFS	85°	82°	87°	87°	88°	87°	86°
GFS	86°	87°	92°	93°	93°	92°	95°
ICON	85°	84°	89°	90°	90°	88°	91°
Confidence	high	high	medium	medium	medium	medium	medium

Do the models agree? · Rain
Rain	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	0.04 in	0.07 in	0.02 in	0.01 in	0.01 in	0.04 in	0
AIFS	0.02 in	0.16 in	0.05 in	0.07 in	0.12 in	0.05 in	0.05 in
GFS	0	0.02 in	0.04 in	0	0.02 in	0	0
ICON	0	0.11 in	0	0	0.02 in	0	0
Confidence	high	medium	medium	medium	medium	medium	medium

Do the models agree? · Wind
Wind (mph)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	1023	1022	920	1021	920	921	922
AIFS	9	9	6	7	5	6	7
GFS	914	812	715	1016	815	713	1021
ICON	1121	1019	1121	1019	715	919	919
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	high	high

Chance of rain from the ensemble models

Model	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF (51 scenarios)	53%	69%	37%	37%	33%	32%	29%
GFS (GEFS, 31 scenarios)	11%	65%	29%	28%	13%	6%	23%

Each model's day runs midnight to midnight local time; models that reach fewer days are left blank. Rain: daily total. Wind: the day's highest average wind and, in small type, the strongest gust. Highlighted: values that stand out from the rest. The chance of rain comes from many runs of the same model with slightly different starting data.

Outlook

How the coming weeks and months compare with what is normal for the time of year. It is a trend, not a day-by-day forecast.

Next few weeks, compared with normal: a bit warmer and normal rain.

Next 6 weeks

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Typical high / low
Nov 2 – Nov 8Nov 2–Nov 8	A bit above +2.2 °F	Below −57%	—
Nov 9 – Nov 15Nov 9–Nov 15	Normal 0.0 °F	Normal	84° / 72°
Nov 16 – Nov 22Nov 16–Nov 22	Normal +0.7 °F	Normal	85° / 72°
Nov 23 – Nov 29Nov 23–Nov 29	A bit above +1.1 °F	Normal	85° / 72°
Nov 30 – Dec 6Nov 30–Dec 6	A bit above +0.9 °F	A bit above +50%	84° / 72°

Coming months

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain
November	A bit above +1.8 °F	Normal
December	Normal +0.7 °F	Normal
January	Normal −0.5 °F	A bit above +24%
February	Normal −0.4 °F	Normal
March	Normal −0.2 °F	Normal

Weeks: ECMWF 46-day (average of its scenarios), against the normal of the last 20 years for those dates. Months: ECMWF SEAS5. Rain: total against normal. The further ahead, the closer it gets to normal and the less detail it can give. The long-range sea temperature isn't usable at this spot (the model's grid cell falls on land).

Chelem climate by monthClimate by month

Normal weather for each month (1991–2020 averages)

The best time to visit Chelem is from November to March: highs of 82 °F to 88 °F, about 4 rainy days a month and 6 hours of sunshine a day.

Hurricane season: from July to October, peaking in October. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 12 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Chelem, about 4 every 10 years; 5 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Milton, in October 2024.

82° 65°

JanJ
85° 67°

FebF
88° 68°

MarM
91° 71°

AprA
92° 73°

MayM
92° 74°

JunJ
92° 74°

JulJ
92° 74°

AugA
91° 74°

SepS
89° 72°

OctO
86° 69°

NovN
84° 67°

DecD

Highs and lows
Monthly rainfall
Best time

Month	High	Low	Rain	Rainy daysDays	Sun (h/day)	Water	Waves	Cyclones
JanuaryJan	82°	65°	1.26 in	4	6.0	75°	3.2 ft	–
FebruaryFeb	85°	67°	0.87 in	3	6.7	75°	2.9 ft	–
MarchMar	88°	68°	0.46 in	3	7.0	76°	3.0 ft	–
AprilApr	91°	71°	0.65 in	3	6.9	78°	2.7 ft	–
MayMay	92°	73°	1.17 in	7	7.7	80°	2.6 ft	–
JuneJun	92°	74°	3.94 in	15	7.3	80°	2.0 ft	1
JulyJul	92°	74°	2.20 in	16	7.8	81°	1.7 ft	3
AugustAug	92°	74°	2.58 in	17	7.6	82°	1.7 ft	2
SeptemberSep	91°	74°	4.26 in	19	6.8	83°	1.8 ft	1
OctoberOct	89°	72°	3.74 in	13	6.3	82°	2.8 ft	4
NovemberNov	86°	69°	1.44 in	6	6.5	79°	3.1 ft	1
DecemberDec	84°	67°	0.83 in	4	6.2	76°	2.9 ft	–

Month	Water	Waves	Cyclones
Jan	75°	3.2 ft	–
Feb	75°	2.9 ft	–
Mar	76°	3.0 ft	–
Apr	78°	2.7 ft	–
May	80°	2.6 ft	–
Jun	80°	2.0 ft	1
Jul	81°	1.7 ft	3
Aug	82°	1.7 ft	2
Sep	83°	1.8 ft	1
Oct	82°	2.8 ft	4
Nov	79°	3.1 ft	1
Dec	76°	2.9 ft	–

Days: rainy days in the month. Sun: hours a day.

A normal year brings 23.40 in of rain on about 110 days and about 2,500 hours of sunshine.

Cyclones: how many tropical cyclones (tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) passed within 93 mi in each month from 1996 to 2025, according to IBTrACS (NOAA).

1991–2020 averages. Highs, lows and rainfall: TerraClimate; rainy days (0.04 in or more): NASA POWER (MERRA-2); sunshine hours: estimated from solar radiation; water: NOAA OISST; waves (average height): ERA5, 2011–2020. Normals are not a forecast: any given year can turn out very different. Sources and licenses

Temperature

Now77 °Ffeels like 80 °F

Tomorrow76 / 83 °F

It's 77 °F now (feels like 80 °F). Today, 73 °F to 83 °F; tomorrow, 76 °F to 83 °F.

Chance of rain

Today 53% 0.04 in
Thu 29 69% 0.07 in
Fri 30 37% 0.02 in
Sat 31 37% 0.01 in
Sun 1 33% 0.01 in
Mon 2 32% 0.04 in
Tue 3 29%

Today the chance of rain reaches 53%, with 0.04 in in total. The next day with likely rain is Thursday 29: 69% and 0.07 in.

Recent rain: last 24 hours, 0.04 in; last 3 days, 0.13 in; last 7 days, 0.28 in.

Humidity and dew point

Humidity67%

Dew point65 °F

Humidity is 67% now and the dew point is 65 °F.

The dew point is the temperature at which the air becomes saturated: the higher it is, the heavier the air feels.

Visibility and fog

Now15 migood

Clouds13%

Visibility is good now (15 mi). No fog expected today.

The model gives visibility up to about 15 mi: beyond that, the horizon is clear.

UV index

Now0

Today's peak8very high

Thu 29: 5 · Fri 30: 8 · Sat 31: 7

Index	Level	What to do
0–2	low	No special protection needed.
3–5	moderate	Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.
6–7	high	Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.
8–10	very high	Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.
11+	extreme	Avoid the sun between 11 am and 5 pm; protect yourself even if it is cloudy.

Reflection off water and sand adds radiation: protect yourself more on a boat or at the beach.

Barometric pressure

↗ Rising Anglers say fish bite less for a while
→ Steady · now Anglers expect normal activity
↘ Falling Anglers say fish feed more before the change

29.9030.0030.10 29.87

Steady now (+0.00 inHg in 3 hours). Over the next 48 hours: −0.06 inHg. Steady pressure: anglers expect normal activity. Fast changes, either way, tend to affect fishing.

Air and pollen

Air qualityFair · 31

Saharan dustNo

Previous days

The weather over the last 30 days, as the models analyzed it. Tap a day to see it hour by hour.

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Tue 27	Light drizzle	73 / 85 °F	0.02 in	10 mph NE
Mon 26	Light drizzle	74 / 84 °F	0.07 in	12 mph NE
Sun 25	Light drizzle	72 / 84 °F	0.05 in	12 mph NE
Sat 24	Light drizzle	74 / 83 °F	0.01 in	12 mph NE
Fri 23	Light drizzle	72 / 82 °F	0.05 in	13 mph NE
Thu 22	Light drizzle	73 / 83 °F	0.05 in	13 mph NE
Wed 21	Light drizzle	75 / 85 °F	0.04 in	13 mph NE

Show all 30 days

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Tue 20	Heavy drizzle	77 / 85 °F	0.19 in	8 mph E
Mon 19	Light showers	76 / 87 °F	0.27 in	11 mph ENE
Sun 18	Light drizzle	77 / 85 °F	0.15 in	11 mph NE
Sat 17	Light drizzle	75 / 86 °F	0.06 in	10 mph ENE
Fri 16	Drizzle	75 / 83 °F	0.21 in	11 mph E
Thu 15	Drizzle	75 / 90 °F	0.20 in	8 mph E
Wed 14	Drizzle	78 / 87 °F	0.09 in	11 mph ENE
Tue 13	Light drizzle	78 / 88 °F	0.05 in	14 mph ENE
Mon 12	Light drizzle	76 / 88 °F	0.05 in	12 mph ENE
Sun 11	Drizzle	76 / 90 °F	0.15 in	9 mph E
Sat 10	Light showers	75 / 91 °F	0.24 in	9 mph ESE
Fri 9	Light drizzle	77 / 91 °F	0.04 in	10 mph SW
Thu 8	Showers	76 / 88 °F	0.83 in	14 mph SSW
Wed 7	Light drizzle	76 / 91 °F	0.06 in	11 mph SSE
Tue 6	Drizzle	76 / 90 °F	0.19 in	7 mph ESE
Mon 5	Thunderstorm	76 / 91 °F	0.51 in	7 mph ESE
Sun 4	Heavy drizzle	76 / 92 °F	0.35 in	9 mph E
Sat 3	Light drizzle	75 / 87 °F	0.06 in	11 mph SE
Fri 2	Light showers	76 / 92 °F	0.25 in	9 mph ESE
Thu 1	Light drizzle	73 / 91 °F	0.04 in	11 mph E
Wed 30	Light drizzle	75 / 92 °F	0.05 in	11 mph ESE
Tue 29	Thunderstorm	76 / 90 °F	0.22 in	12 mph ESE
Mon 28	Thunderstorm	76 / 92 °F	0.23 in	8 mph SE

These are the models at the start of each day (ECMWF and GFS; waves from Météo-France), not readings from a weather station: there can be differences at specific spots.

Questions about the weather in ChelemQuestions

What's the weather like today in Chelem?

Light drizzle, from 73 °F to 83 °F, with a light breeze from the north-northeast (5 mph) and a 53% chance of rain.

Will it rain tomorrow in Chelem?

On Thursday 29 the chance of rain is 69% (0.07 in): light drizzle.

How warm will it be this week?

Between a low of 71 °F and a high of 87 °F; the warmest day, Saturday 31.

What's the UV index today?

It reaches 8 (very high). Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.

Is the pressure rising or falling?

It's 29.96 inHg and steady: −0.03 inHg over the last 24 hours.

When is the best time to visit Chelem?

The best time to visit Chelem is from November to March: highs of 82 °F to 88 °F, about 4 rainy days a month and 6 hours of sunshine a day.

What is the weather like in Chelem in October?

In October, Chelem normally sees highs of 89 °F and lows of 72 °F, with about 13 rainy days (3.74 in for the month) and 6 hours of sunshine a day. The sea is around 82 °F. These are 1991–2020 averages.

What are the warmest and wettest months in Chelem?

The warmest is May, with average highs of 92 °F, and the coldest January, with lows of 65 °F. The wettest is September (4.26 in) and the driest, March.

When is hurricane season in Chelem?

Hurricane season: from July to October, peaking in October. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 12 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Chelem, about 4 every 10 years; 5 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Milton, in October 2024.

More about Chelem today

Weather near Chelem

Only places with a different forecast: spots a few miles apart share the same model cell and wouldn't add anything.

Learn more

Weather: Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0, with the best model for each spot and lead time (NOAA HRRR and NBM in the U.S., Météo-France AROME, DWD ICON-EU, ECMWF IFS and NOAA GFS); ECMWF grid point 16 mi away. The comparison also uses ICON (DWD), AIFS (ECMWF) and ARPEGE (Météo-France). Outlook: ECMWF 46-day and SEAS5. Chance of rain from ensemble models (ECMWF, GEFS and NBM). UV, air quality and pollen: CAMS (Copernicus).

Forecast from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) with models from ECMWF, NOAA, Météo-France, DWD, Copernicus Marine and CAMS. Updated at 5:29 pm (local time).

Spotted a mistake? Tell us · Where the weather and sea data come from