Weather in Shimabara

14-day forecast · updated today, Thursday, October 29, at 11:05 am (GMT+9)

Now · overcast 70 °F

Feels like: 70 °F
Low / high: 58 / 70 °F
Rain: 95% · 0.10 in
Wind: 3 mph SSW

→ 30.22 inHg · steady

Today in Shimabara: light drizzle, 58 °F to 70 °F, with a 95% chance of rain (0.10 in) and a light air from the south-southwest (3 mph). Tomorrow, rain, 61 °F to 72 °F and a 100% chance of rain. The warmest day of the week is Monday 2, at 72 °F.

Temperatures for the next 14 days

70° 58°
Today
72° 61°
Fri 30
71° 59°
Sat 31
70° 58°
Sun 1
72° 61°
Mon 2
66° 59°
Tue 3
65° 59°
Wed 4
73° 62°
Thu 5
65° 56°
Fri 6
61° 56°
Sat 7
67° 56°
Sun 8
61° 52°
Mon 9
61° 51°
Tue 10
63° 52°
Wed 11

Day by day

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind	Max wave	High tides	Model
Today · 29	Light drizzle	58 / 70 °F	95% · 0.10 in	7 mph SSW	0.5 ft	11:01 am · 10:38 pm	ECMWF
Fri 30	Rain	61 / 72 °F	100% · 0.83 in	9 mph WSW	1.0 ft	11:46 am · 11:15 pm	ECMWF
Sat 31	Clear sky	59 / 71 °F	0%	9 mph WNW	0.7 ft	12:35 pm	ECMWF
Sun 1	Overcast	58 / 70 °F	5%	5 mph SSE	0.5 ft	12:00 am · 1:36 pm	ECMWF
Mon 2	Rain	61 / 72 °F	85% · 0.80 in	17 mph WSW	2.2 ft	1:08 am · 2:59 pm	ECMWF
Tue 3	Light drizzle	59 / 66 °F	1% · 0.04 in	13 mph NNE	1.4 ft	2:59 am · 4:27 pm	ECMWF
Wed 4	Overcast	59 / 65 °F	15%	13 mph NNE	1.4 ft	4:46 am · 5:31 pm	ECMWF
Thu 5	Overcast	62 / 73 °F	25%	4 mph NNW	0.3 ft	5:55 am · 6:18 pm	ECMWF
Fri 6	Partly cloudy	56 / 65 °F	18%	11 mph N	1.0 ft	6:46 am · 6:57 pm	ECMWF
Sat 7	Overcast	56 / 61 °F	8%	13 mph NE	1.5 ft	7:31 am · 7:33 pm	ECMWF
Sun 8	Overcast	56 / 67 °F	7%	5 mph N	2.1 ft	8:12 am · 8:06 pm	ECMWF
Mon 9	Partly cloudy	52 / 61 °F	8%	11 mph N	2.6 ft	8:52 am · 8:38 pm	ECMWF
Tue 10	Partly cloudy	51 / 61 °F	16%	5 mph N	1.7 ft	9:29 am · 9:09 pm	ECMWF
Wed 11	Overcast	52 / 63 °F	8%	3 mph NW	0.8 ft	10:04 am · 9:38 pm	ECMWF

Each day comes from the best model covering this spot: regional ones first (HRRR and NBM in the U.S., AROME, ICON-EU), then ECMWF; day 16, NOAA GFS. Waves: Météo-France up to day 10, then ECMWF WAM, coarser and further offshore. High tides: our own tide calculation.

Today, every 3 hours

Time	12:00 am	3:00 am	6:00 am	9:00 am	12:00 pm	3:00 pm	6:00 pm	9:00 pm
Sky	Clear	Clear	Mainly clear	Partly cloudy	Overcast	Light drizzle	Light drizzle	Light drizzle
Temperature	60°	58°	59°	66°	70°	68°	66°	65°
Chance of rain	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%	69%	71%	82%
Rain	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.01 in	0.02 in
Wind (mph)	4 NNE	2 NE	1 SSE	2 SE	4 SW	7 SW	3 WSW	3 S
Humidity	76%	82%	78%	68%	63%	78%	87%	92%
UV	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0
Model	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF

Do the models agree?

Medium confidence

They broadly agree, but not quite on rain today: take it with some caution.

What 4 forecast models say for the next few days. The closer they are, the more reliable the forecast.

HighRainWind

Do the models agree? · High
High (°F)	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF	70°	72°	71°	70°	72°	66°	65°
AIFS	70°	72°	74°	73°	73°	71°	69°
GFS	68°	70°	70°	71°	72°	67°	68°
ICON	70°	70°	69°	70°	73°	68°	64°
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	high	high

Do the models agree? · Rain
Rain	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF	0.10 in	0.83 in	0	0	0.80 in	0.04 in	0
AIFS	0.18 in	0.65 in	0	0.01 in	0.63 in	0	0.10 in
GFS	0.13 in	0.70 in	0	0.00 in	0.56 in	0	0
ICON	0.00 in	0.63 in	0	0	0.22 in	0	0
Confidence	medium	high	high	high	medium	high	medium

Do the models agree? · Wind
Wind (mph)	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF	721	928	925	534	1750	1334	1337
AIFS	4	7	7	6	10	9	6
GFS	512	921	711	1025	1741	1321	1123
ICON	49	720	1018	917	1323	1323	815
Confidence	high	high	high	high	medium	high	medium

Chance of rain from the ensemble models

Model	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF (51 scenarios)	95%	100%	0%	5%	85%	1%	15%
GFS (GEFS, 31 scenarios)	93%	100%	3%	7%	73%	6%	0%

Each model's day runs midnight to midnight local time; models that reach fewer days are left blank. Rain: daily total. Wind: the day's highest average wind and, in small type, the strongest gust. Highlighted: values that stand out from the rest. The chance of rain comes from many runs of the same model with slightly different starting data.

Outlook

How the coming weeks and months compare with what is normal for the time of year. It is a trend, not a day-by-day forecast.

The next few weeks look normal for the time of year.

Next 6 weeks

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Typical high / low
Nov 2 – Nov 8Nov 2–Nov 8	Normal −0.4 °F	A bit below −44%	—
Nov 9 – Nov 15Nov 9–Nov 15	Normal 0.0 °F	A bit below −24%	—
Nov 16 – Nov 22Nov 16–Nov 22	A bit above +1.3 °F	A bit above +21%	64° / 53°
Nov 23 – Nov 29Nov 23–Nov 29	A bit above +2.3 °F	A bit above +33%	62° / 51°
Nov 30 – Dec 6Nov 30–Dec 6	A bit above +2.3 °F	Above +53%	60° / 49°

Coming months

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain
November	A bit above +2.3 °F	A bit above +41%
December	A bit above +2.0 °F	Above +50%
January	A bit above +2.0 °F	A bit above +29%
February	Above +2.9 °F	A bit above +22%
March	A bit above +2.2 °F	A bit above +29%

Weeks: ECMWF 46-day (average of its scenarios), against the normal of the last 20 years for those dates. Months: ECMWF SEAS5. Rain: total against normal. The further ahead, the closer it gets to normal and the less detail it can give. The long-range sea temperature isn't usable at this spot (the model's grid cell falls on land).

Shimabara climate by monthClimate by month

Normal weather for each month (1991–2020 averages)

The best time to visit Shimabara is in October: highs of 75 °F, about 7 rainy days a month and 6 hours of sunshine a day.

Typhoon season: from August to September, peaking in September. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 32 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Shimabara, one or two a year; 17 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Lingling, in August 2025.

50° 36°

JanJ
53° 37°

FebF
59° 43°

MarM
68° 51°

AprA
76° 59°

MayM
80° 67°

JunJ
86° 74°

JulJ
89° 75°

AugA
83° 69°

SepS
75° 59°

OctO
64° 49°

NovN
54° 39°

DecD

Highs and lows
Monthly rainfall
Best time

Month	High	Low	Rain	Rainy daysDays	Sun (h/day)	Water	Waves	Cyclones
JanuaryJan	50°	36°	2.14 in	7	3.4	58°	0.8 ft	–
FebruaryFeb	53°	37°	3.13 in	8	4.2	56°	0.8 ft	–
MarchMar	59°	43°	4.50 in	10	5.1	58°	0.7 ft	–
AprilApr	68°	51°	5.51 in	10	5.3	61°	0.7 ft	–
MayMay	76°	59°	6.33 in	10	5.6	66°	0.5 ft	–
JuneJun	80°	67°	14.40 in	15	3.6	72°	0.5 ft	1
JulyJul	86°	74°	13.89 in	16	5.1	78°	0.6 ft	6
AugustAug	89°	75°	7.54 in	15	6.3	81°	0.6 ft	10
SeptemberSep	83°	69°	7.37 in	12	5.4	79°	0.5 ft	14
OctoberOct	75°	59°	3.51 in	7	5.5	74°	0.5 ft	1
NovemberNov	64°	49°	3.17 in	7	4.4	68°	0.6 ft	–
DecemberDec	54°	39°	2.71 in	6	3.5	62°	0.8 ft	–

Month	Water	Waves	Cyclones
Jan	58°	0.8 ft	–
Feb	56°	0.8 ft	–
Mar	58°	0.7 ft	–
Apr	61°	0.7 ft	–
May	66°	0.5 ft	–
Jun	72°	0.5 ft	1
Jul	78°	0.6 ft	6
Aug	81°	0.6 ft	10
Sep	79°	0.5 ft	14
Oct	74°	0.5 ft	1
Nov	68°	0.6 ft	–
Dec	62°	0.8 ft	–

Days: rainy days in the month. Sun: hours a day.

A normal year brings 74.18 in of rain on about 122 days and about 1,750 hours of sunshine.

Cyclones: how many tropical cyclones (tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) passed within 93 mi in each month from 1996 to 2025, according to IBTrACS (NOAA).

1991–2020 averages. Highs, lows and rainfall: TerraClimate; rainy days (0.04 in or more): NASA POWER (MERRA-2); sunshine hours: estimated from solar radiation; water: NOAA OISST; waves (average height): ERA5, 2011–2020. Normals are not a forecast: any given year can turn out very different. Sources and licenses

Temperature

Now70 °Ffeels like 70 °F

Tomorrow61 / 72 °F

It's 70 °F now (feels like 70 °F). Today, 58 °F to 70 °F; tomorrow, 61 °F to 72 °F.

Chance of rain

Today 95% 0.10 in
Fri 30 100% 0.83 in
Sat 31 0%
Sun 1 5%
Mon 2 85% 0.80 in
Tue 3 1% 0.04 in
Wed 4 15%

Today the chance of rain reaches 95%, with 0.10 in in total. The next day with likely rain is Friday 30: 100% and 0.83 in.

Recent rain: last 24 hours, 0.00 in; last 3 days, 0.14 in; last 7 days, 4.59 in.

Humidity and dew point

Humidity63%

Dew point57 °F

Humidity is 63% now and the dew point is 57 °F.

The dew point is the temperature at which the air becomes saturated: the higher it is, the heavier the air feels.

Visibility and fog

Now15 migood

Clouds92%

Visibility is good now (15 mi). No fog expected today.

UV index

Now3

Today's peak3moderate

Fri 30: 4 · Sat 31: 5 · Sun 1: 3

Index	Level	What to do
0–2	low	No special protection needed.
3–5	moderate	Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.
6–7	high	Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.
8–10	very high	Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.
11+	extreme	Avoid the sun between 11 am and 5 pm; protect yourself even if it is cloudy.

Reflection off water and sand adds radiation: protect yourself more on a boat or at the beach.

Barometric pressure

↗ Rising Anglers say fish bite less for a while
→ Steady · now Anglers expect normal activity
↘ Falling Anglers say fish feed more before the change

30.0030.1030.2030.30 30.01

Steady now (−0.01 inHg in 3 hours). Over the next 48 hours: −0.03 inHg. Steady pressure: anglers expect normal activity. Fast changes, either way, tend to affect fishing.

Air and pollen

Air qualityFair · 40

Saharan dustNo

Previous days

The weather over the last 30 days, as the models analyzed it. Tap a day to see it hour by hour.

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Wed 28	Clear sky	59 / 68 °F	0	10 mph NNE
Tue 27	Drizzle	63 / 74 °F	0.07 in	13 mph NNW
Mon 26	Heavy rain	67 / 72 °F	1.91 in	16 mph NNE
Sun 25	Light rain	69 / 79 °F	0.41 in	12 mph NE
Sat 24	Light rain	69 / 84 °F	0.30 in	11 mph SE
Fri 23	Rain	65 / 70 °F	1.91 in	9 mph NE
Thu 22	Overcast	64 / 73 °F	0	13 mph NNE

Show all 30 days

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Wed 21	Drizzle	66 / 80 °F	0.12 in	12 mph WSW
Tue 20	Overcast	72 / 83 °F	0	9 mph SW
Mon 19	Light drizzle	72 / 83 °F	0.01 in	8 mph SW
Sun 18	Overcast	67 / 84 °F	0	7 mph SSW
Sat 17	Overcast	66 / 81 °F	0	7 mph NE
Fri 16	Light drizzle	64 / 76 °F	0.01 in	6 mph NNE
Thu 15	Overcast	63 / 74 °F	0	9 mph NNE
Wed 14	Light drizzle	65 / 75 °F	0.01 in	11 mph N
Tue 13	Light drizzle	70 / 81 °F	0.09 in	13 mph SSW
Mon 12	Light drizzle	73 / 84 °F	0.05 in	5 mph N
Sun 11	Light drizzle	71 / 83 °F	0.01 in	4 mph NE
Sat 10	Heavy drizzle	71 / 80 °F	0.15 in	7 mph NE
Fri 9	Mainly clear	67 / 78 °F	0	7 mph NNE
Thu 8	Clear sky	65 / 77 °F	0	9 mph NE
Wed 7	Clear sky	65 / 75 °F	0	11 mph NNE
Tue 6	Mainly clear	65 / 75 °F	0	12 mph N
Mon 5	Partly cloudy	67 / 80 °F	0	9 mph NNW
Sun 4	Heavy drizzle	69 / 73 °F	0.28 in	9 mph NNE
Sat 3	Overcast	67 / 79 °F	0	14 mph NNE
Fri 2	Mainly clear	70 / 77 °F	0	15 mph NNE
Thu 1	Overcast	71 / 82 °F	0	8 mph NNE
Wed 30	Clear sky	70 / 83 °F	0	7 mph NNE
Tue 29	Rain	70 / 77 °F	0.80 in	11 mph NNE

These are the models at the start of each day (ECMWF and GFS; waves from Météo-France), not readings from a weather station: there can be differences at specific spots.

Questions about the weather in ShimabaraQuestions

What's the weather like today in Shimabara?

Light drizzle, from 58 °F to 70 °F, with a light air from the south-southwest (3 mph) and a 95% chance of rain.

Will it rain tomorrow in Shimabara?

On Friday 30 the chance of rain is 100% (0.83 in): rain.

How warm will it be this week?

Between a low of 58 °F and a high of 72 °F; the warmest day, Monday 2.

What's the UV index today?

It reaches 3 (moderate). Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.

Is the pressure rising or falling?

It's 30.22 inHg and steady: −0.00 inHg over the last 24 hours.

When is the best time to visit Shimabara?

The best time to visit Shimabara is in October: highs of 75 °F, about 7 rainy days a month and 6 hours of sunshine a day.

What is the weather like in Shimabara in October?

In October, Shimabara normally sees highs of 75 °F and lows of 59 °F, with about 7 rainy days (3.51 in for the month) and 6 hours of sunshine a day. The sea is around 74 °F. These are 1991–2020 averages.

What are the warmest and wettest months in Shimabara?

The warmest is August, with average highs of 89 °F, and the coldest January, with lows of 36 °F. The wettest is June (14.40 in) and the driest, January.

When is typhoon season in Shimabara?

Typhoon season: from August to September, peaking in September. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 32 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Shimabara, one or two a year; 17 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Lingling, in August 2025.

More about Shimabara today

Weather near Shimabara

Only places with a different forecast: spots a few miles apart share the same model cell and wouldn't add anything.

Learn more

Weather: Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0, with the best model for each spot and lead time (NOAA HRRR and NBM in the U.S., Météo-France AROME, DWD ICON-EU, ECMWF IFS and NOAA GFS); ECMWF grid point 7.2 mi away. The comparison also uses ICON (DWD), AIFS (ECMWF) and ARPEGE (Météo-France). Outlook: ECMWF 46-day and SEAS5. Chance of rain from ensemble models (ECMWF, GEFS and NBM). UV, air quality and pollen: CAMS (Copernicus).

Forecast from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) with models from ECMWF, NOAA, Météo-France, DWD, Copernicus Marine and CAMS. Updated at 11:05 am (local time).

Spotted a mistake? Tell us · Where the weather and sea data come from