Weather in Shad Bay

14-day forecast · updated today, Wednesday, October 28, at 6:56 pm (ADT)

Now · mainly clear 46 °F

Feels like: 38 °F
Low / high: 35 / 46 °F
Rain: 0%
Wind: 9 mph W

→ 30.33 inHg · steady

Today in Shad Bay: overcast, 35 °F to 46 °F, with a 0% chance of rain and a gentle breeze from the west (9 mph). Tomorrow, clear sky, 41 °F to 55 °F and a 0% chance of rain. The warmest day of the week is Friday 30, at 56 °F. Next likely rain: Friday 30 (53%).

Temperatures for the next 14 days

46° 35°
Today
55° 41°
Thu 29
56° 52°
Fri 30
51° 38°
Sat 31
48° 36°
Sun 1
56° 44°
Mon 2
53° 46°
Tue 3
57° 49°
Wed 4
59° 47°
Thu 5
57° 47°
Fri 6
57° 49°
Sat 7
49° 42°
Sun 8
53° 39°
Mon 9
48° 37°
Tue 10

Day by day

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind	Max wave	High tides	Model
Today · 28	Overcast	35 / 46 °F	0%	11 mph WNW	2.5 ft	10:05 am · 10:45 pm	ECMWF
Thu 29	Clear sky	41 / 55 °F	0%	15 mph WSW	4.3 ft	10:52 am · 11:35 pm	ECMWF
Fri 30	Light drizzle	52 / 56 °F	53% · 0.04 in	15 mph WSW	4.3 ft	11:41 am	ECMWF
Sat 31	Overcast	38 / 51 °F	6%	14 mph NW	3.2 ft	12:28 am · 12:34 pm	ECMWF
Sun 1	Overcast	36 / 48 °F	0%	15 mph W	2.9 ft	1:27 am · 12:32 pm	ECMWF
Mon 2	Overcast	44 / 56 °F	0%	14 mph WSW	3.4 ft	1:34 am · 1:39 pm	ECMWF
Tue 3	Overcast	46 / 53 °F	6%	9 mph SSW	2.4 ft	2:49 am · 2:56 pm	ECMWF
Wed 4	Light drizzle	49 / 57 °F	20% · 0.01 in	19 mph SSW	4.7 ft	3:59 am · 4:14 pm	ECMWF
Thu 5	Light drizzle	47 / 59 °F	9% · 0.01 in	14 mph WSW	4.3 ft	4:54 am · 5:17 pm	ECMWF
Fri 6	Overcast	47 / 57 °F	33%	10 mph E	3.0 ft	5:41 am · 6:10 pm	ECMWF
Sat 7	Overcast	49 / 57 °F	39%	15 mph NNE	4.1 ft	6:23 am · 6:57 pm	ECMWF
Sun 8	Light drizzle	42 / 49 °F	31% · 0.05 in	15 mph NW	3.2 ft	7:03 am · 7:40 pm	ECMWF
Mon 9	Mainly clear	39 / 53 °F	16%	12 mph WNW	2.5 ft	7:41 am · 8:22 pm	ECMWF
Tue 10	Mainly clear	37 / 48 °F	18%	7 mph NNW	1.3 ft	8:19 am · 9:02 pm	ECMWF

Each day comes from the best model covering this spot: regional ones first (HRRR and NBM in the U.S., AROME, ICON-EU), then ECMWF; day 16, NOAA GFS. Waves: Météo-France up to day 10, then ECMWF WAM, coarser and further offshore. High tides: our own tide calculation.

Today, every 3 hours

Time	12:00 am	3:00 am	6:00 am	9:00 am	12:00 pm	3:00 pm	6:00 pm	9:00 pm
Sky	Clear	Clear	Clear	Clear sky	Clear sky	Partly cloudy	Clear sky	Overcast
Temperature	39°	35°	35°	37°	43°	46°	46°	44°
Chance of rain	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Rain	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in
Wind (mph)	10 NW	8 NW	7 NW	6 NW	6 W	9 WSW	8 W	10 W
Humidity	59%	66%	73%	72%	47%	48%	55%	60%
UV	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0
Model	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF

Do the models agree?

Medium confidence

They broadly agree, but not quite on rain on Friday 30: take it with some caution.

What 4 forecast models say for the next few days. The closer they are, the more reliable the forecast.

HighRainWind

Do the models agree? · High
High (°F)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	46°	55°	56°	51°	48°	56°	53°
AIFS	47°	56°	58°	50°	48°	56°	58°
GFS	49°	56°	59°	49°	51°	55°	51°
ICON	49°	56°	59°	51°	48°	54°	53°
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	high	medium

Do the models agree? · Rain
Rain	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	0	0	0.04 in	0	0	0	0
AIFS	0	0	0.10 in	0.02 in	0	0	0
GFS	0	0	0.04 in	0.03 in	0	0	0
ICON	0	0	0.02 in	0	0	0	0.01 in
Confidence	high	high	medium	high	high	high	high

Do the models agree? · Wind
Wind (mph)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	1118	1525	1526	1427	1525	1426	819
AIFS	11	16	16	15	12	13	11
GFS	823	1337	1337	1425	1125	1129	1123
ICON	817	1225	1226	1533	1124	1329	1330
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	high	high

Chance of rain from the ensemble models

Model	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF (51 scenarios)	0%	0%	53%	6%	0%	0%	6%
GFS (GEFS, 31 scenarios)	0%	0%	68%	32%	0%	14%	26%

Each model's day runs midnight to midnight local time; models that reach fewer days are left blank. Rain: daily total. Wind: the day's highest average wind and, in small type, the strongest gust. Highlighted: values that stand out from the rest. The chance of rain comes from many runs of the same model with slightly different starting data.

Outlook

How the coming weeks and months compare with what is normal for the time of year. It is a trend, not a day-by-day forecast.

Next few weeks, compared with normal: a bit warmer, normal rain and a near-normal sea.

Next 6 weeks

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea	Typical high / low
Nov 2 – Nov 8Nov 2–Nov 8	A bit above +1.1 °F	A bit below −22%	A bit below −1.3 °F	—
Nov 9 – Nov 15Nov 9–Nov 15	Normal +0.7 °F	Normal	Normal −0.4 °F	47° / 42°
Nov 16 – Nov 22Nov 16–Nov 22	A bit above +1.3 °F	Normal	Normal +0.4 °F	46° / 41°
Nov 23 – Nov 29Nov 23–Nov 29	A bit above +2.0 °F	Normal	A bit above +0.9 °F	44° / 40°
Nov 30 – Dec 6Nov 30–Dec 6	A bit above +1.6 °F	Normal	A bit above +1.1 °F	42° / 37°

Coming months

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea
November	A bit above +1.6 °F	Normal	—
December	Above +4.1 °F	A bit above +23%	—
January	Well above +5.8 °F	A bit above +21%	—
February	Above +4.9 °F	Normal	—
March	Above +4.1 °F	Normal	—

Weeks: ECMWF 46-day (average of its scenarios), against the normal of the last 20 years for those dates. Months: ECMWF SEAS5. Rain: total against normal. The further ahead, the closer it gets to normal and the less detail it can give.

Shad Bay climate by monthClimate by month

Normal weather for each month (1991–2020 averages)

The best time to visit Shad Bay is from July to August: highs of 74 °F to 74 °F, about 8 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.

Hurricane season: from August to October, peaking in September. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 6 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Shad Bay, about 2 every 10 years; 4 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Earl, in September 2010.

34° 17°

JanJ
34° 17°

FebF
39° 23°

MarM
48° 32°

AprA
58° 40°

MayM
67° 48°

JunJ
74° 56°

JulJ
74° 57°

AugA
68° 51°

SepS
58° 42°

OctO
48° 34°

NovN
39° 25°

DecD

Highs and lows
Monthly rainfall
Best time

Month	High	Low	Rain	Rainy daysDays	Sun (h/day)	Water	Waves	Cyclones
JanuaryJan	34°	17°	5.48 in	10	3.2	38°	6.5 ft	–
FebruaryFeb	34°	17°	4.82 in	8	4.8	34°	6.4 ft	–
MarchMar	39°	23°	5.00 in	9	5.7	34°	6.1 ft	–
AprilApr	48°	32°	4.40 in	10	5.6	36°	5.6 ft	–
MayMay	58°	40°	4.32 in	10	6.1	42°	4.3 ft	–
JuneJun	67°	48°	4.44 in	10	6.9	49°	3.9 ft	–
JulyJul	74°	56°	3.80 in	8	7.2	58°	3.7 ft	–
AugustAug	74°	57°	3.61 in	8	7.2	62°	3.6 ft	1
SeptemberSep	68°	51°	3.91 in	8	6.1	61°	4.5 ft	4
OctoberOct	58°	42°	5.69 in	10	4.2	56°	5.3 ft	1
NovemberNov	48°	34°	6.10 in	10	2.6	49°	5.9 ft	–
DecemberDec	39°	25°	6.38 in	11	2.2	43°	6.2 ft	–

Month	Water	Waves	Cyclones
Jan	38°	6.5 ft	–
Feb	34°	6.4 ft	–
Mar	34°	6.1 ft	–
Apr	36°	5.6 ft	–
May	42°	4.3 ft	–
Jun	49°	3.9 ft	–
Jul	58°	3.7 ft	–
Aug	62°	3.6 ft	1
Sep	61°	4.5 ft	4
Oct	56°	5.3 ft	1
Nov	49°	5.9 ft	–
Dec	43°	6.2 ft	–

Days: rainy days in the month. Sun: hours a day.

A normal year brings 57.95 in of rain on about 111 days and about 1,900 hours of sunshine.

Cyclones: how many tropical cyclones (tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) passed within 93 mi in each month from 1996 to 2025, according to IBTrACS (NOAA).

1991–2020 averages. Highs, lows and rainfall: TerraClimate; rainy days (0.04 in or more): NASA POWER (MERRA-2); sunshine hours: estimated from solar radiation; water: NOAA OISST; waves (average height): ERA5, 2011–2020. Normals are not a forecast: any given year can turn out very different. Sources and licenses

Temperature

Now46 °Ffeels like 38 °F

Tomorrow41 / 55 °F

It's 46 °F now (feels like 38 °F). Today, 35 °F to 46 °F; tomorrow, 41 °F to 55 °F.

Chance of rain

Today 0%
Thu 29 0%
Fri 30 53% 0.04 in
Sat 31 6%
Sun 1 0%
Mon 2 0%
Tue 3 6%

Today the chance of rain reaches 0%. The next day with likely rain is Friday 30: 53% and 0.04 in.

Recent rain: last 24 hours, 0.00 in; last 3 days, 0.00 in; last 7 days, 0.80 in.

Humidity and dew point

Humidity56%

Dew point31 °F

Humidity is 56% now and the dew point is 31 °F.

The dew point is the temperature at which the air becomes saturated: the higher it is, the heavier the air feels.

Visibility and fog

Now15 migood

Clouds38%

Visibility is good now (15 mi). No fog expected today.

The model gives visibility up to about 15 mi: beyond that, the horizon is clear.

UV index

Now0

Today's peak3low

Thu 29: 3 · Fri 30: 1 · Sat 31: 2

Index	Level	What to do
0–2	low	No special protection needed.
3–5	moderate	Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.
6–7	high	Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.
8–10	very high	Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.
11+	extreme	Avoid the sun between 11 am and 5 pm; protect yourself even if it is cloudy.

Reflection off water and sand adds radiation: protect yourself more on a boat or at the beach.

Barometric pressure

↗ Rising Anglers say fish bite less for a while
→ Steady · now Anglers expect normal activity
↘ Falling Anglers say fish feed more before the change

29.8030.0030.2030.40 29.79

Steady now (−0.03 inHg in 3 hours). Over the next 48 hours: −0.53 inHg. Steady pressure: anglers expect normal activity. Fast changes, either way, tend to affect fishing.

Air and pollen

Air qualityFair · 28

Saharan dustNo

Previous days

The weather over the last 30 days, as the models analyzed it. Tap a day to see it hour by hour.

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Tue 27	Overcast	40 / 54 °F	0	13 mph NW
Mon 26	Overcast	47 / 57 °F	0	11 mph WSW
Sun 25	Clear sky	42 / 60 °F	0	9 mph W
Sat 24	Overcast	39 / 50 °F	0	14 mph NNW
Fri 23	Light rain	42 / 49 °F	0.11 in	22 mph N
Thu 22	Rain	46 / 52 °F	0.69 in	18 mph NE
Wed 21	Overcast	42 / 57 °F	0	11 mph NE

Show all 30 days

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Tue 20	Overcast	44 / 59 °F	0	11 mph NNE
Mon 19	Overcast	39 / 53 °F	0	9 mph SE
Sun 18	Partly cloudy	35 / 50 °F	0	13 mph NNW
Sat 17	Rain	43 / 59 °F	0.26 in	15 mph WNW
Fri 16	Rain	40 / 58 °F	0.56 in	15 mph SSW
Thu 15	Overcast	46 / 55 °F	0	21 mph NW
Wed 14	Rain	47 / 60 °F	1.33 in	18 mph SE
Tue 13	Drizzle	42 / 50 °F	0.06 in	14 mph ENE
Mon 12	Drizzle	49 / 59 °F	0.15 in	16 mph WNW
Sun 11	Overcast	42 / 54 °F	0	15 mph W
Sat 10	Clear sky	48 / 55 °F	0	19 mph WNW
Fri 9	Light drizzle	51 / 61 °F	0.01 in	15 mph W
Thu 8	Light drizzle	54 / 64 °F	0.02 in	17 mph SSW
Wed 7	Overcast	49 / 59 °F	0	13 mph W
Tue 6	Light drizzle	50 / 58 °F	0.00 in	21 mph W
Mon 5	Heavy drizzle	56 / 64 °F	0.22 in	14 mph ESE
Sun 4	Overcast	48 / 60 °F	0	12 mph E
Sat 3	Drizzle	54 / 66 °F	0.09 in	10 mph NW
Fri 2	Light drizzle	60 / 68 °F	0.01 in	14 mph SW
Thu 1	Light drizzle	59 / 64 °F	0.01 in	12 mph SW
Wed 30	Light drizzle	60 / 66 °F	0.02 in	6 mph N
Tue 29	Light rain	60 / 66 °F	0.26 in	10 mph ESE
Mon 28	Rain	57 / 60 °F	0.84 in	20 mph ENE

These are the models at the start of each day (ECMWF and GFS; waves from Météo-France), not readings from a weather station: there can be differences at specific spots.

Questions about the weather in Shad BayQuestions

What's the weather like today in Shad Bay?

Overcast, from 35 °F to 46 °F, with a gentle breeze from the west (9 mph) and a 0% chance of rain.

Will it rain tomorrow in Shad Bay?

On Thursday 29 the chance of rain is 0% (0.00 in): clear sky.

How warm will it be this week?

Between a low of 35 °F and a high of 56 °F; the warmest day, Friday 30.

What's the UV index today?

It reaches 3 (low). No special protection needed.

Is the pressure rising or falling?

It's 30.33 inHg and steady: +0.10 inHg over the last 24 hours.

When is the best time to visit Shad Bay?

The best time to visit Shad Bay is from July to August: highs of 74 °F to 74 °F, about 8 rainy days a month and 7 hours of sunshine a day.

What is the weather like in Shad Bay in October?

In October, Shad Bay normally sees highs of 58 °F and lows of 42 °F, with about 10 rainy days (5.69 in for the month) and 4 hours of sunshine a day. The sea is around 56 °F. These are 1991–2020 averages.

What are the warmest and wettest months in Shad Bay?

The warmest is August, with average highs of 74 °F, and the coldest February, with lows of 17 °F. The wettest is December (6.38 in) and the driest, August.

When is hurricane season in Shad Bay?

Hurricane season: from August to October, peaking in September. In the last 30 years (1996–2025), 6 tropical cyclones passed within 93 mi of Shad Bay, about 2 every 10 years; 4 of them with hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more). The most recent: Earl, in September 2010.

More about Shad Bay today

Weather near Shad Bay

Only places with a different forecast: spots a few miles apart share the same model cell and wouldn't add anything.

Learn more

Weather: Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0, with the best model for each spot and lead time (NOAA HRRR and NBM in the U.S., Météo-France AROME, DWD ICON-EU, ECMWF IFS and NOAA GFS); ECMWF grid point 2.4 mi away. The comparison also uses ICON (DWD), AIFS (ECMWF) and ARPEGE (Météo-France). Outlook: ECMWF 46-day and SEAS5. Chance of rain from ensemble models (ECMWF, GEFS and NBM). UV, air quality and pollen: CAMS (Copernicus).

Forecast from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) with models from ECMWF, NOAA, Météo-France, DWD, Copernicus Marine and CAMS. Updated at 6:56 pm (local time).

Spotted a mistake? Tell us · Where the weather and sea data come from