Weather in Churchill

14-day forecast · updated today, Wednesday, October 28, at 10:30 pm (CDT)

Now · light snow 31 °F

Feels like: 20 °F
Low / high: 31 / 35 °F
Rain: 100% · 0.08 in
Wind: 14 mph NNE

↗ 30.09 inHg · rising

Today in Churchill: snow, 31 °F to 35 °F, with a 100% chance of rain (0.08 in) and a moderate breeze from the north-northeast (14 mph). Tomorrow, snow, 21 °F to 31 °F and a 84% chance of rain. The warmest day of the week is Wednesday 28, at 35 °F.

Temperatures for the next 14 days

35° 31°
Today
31° 21°
Thu 29
32° 21°
Fri 30
35° 29°
Sat 31
34° 31°
Sun 1
35° 30°
Mon 2
33° 24°
Tue 3
32° 28°
Wed 4
31° 24°
Thu 5
33° 23°
Fri 6
31° 29°
Sat 7
29° 26°
Sun 8
31° 29°
Mon 9
35° 30°
Tue 10

Day by day

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind	Max wave	High tides	Model
Today · 28	Snow	31 / 35 °F	100% · 0.08 in	19 mph NNE	5.2 ft	9:53 am · 10:04 pm	ECMWF
Thu 29	Snow	21 / 31 °F	84% · 0.08 in	17 mph NW	4.3 ft	10:37 am · 10:47 pm	ECMWF
Fri 30	Overcast	21 / 32 °F	0%	18 mph W	2.7 ft	11:25 am · 11:36 pm	ECMWF
Sat 31	Overcast	29 / 35 °F	0%	16 mph WSW	2.4 ft	12:16 pm	ECMWF
Sun 1	Overcast	31 / 34 °F	0%	13 mph W	1.6 ft	12:30 am · 1:14 pm	ECMWF
Mon 2	Overcast	30 / 35 °F	7%	10 mph SSE	0.7 ft	1:33 am · 2:19 pm	ECMWF
Tue 3	Overcast	24 / 33 °F	20%	8 mph SSW	0.7 ft	2:44 am · 3:31 pm	ECMWF
Wed 4	Snow	28 / 32 °F	30% · 0.09 in	20 mph NW	4.9 ft	4:00 am · 4:45 pm	ECMWF
Thu 5	Snow	24 / 31 °F	30% · 0.05 in	23 mph NW	6.7 ft	5:16 am · 5:53 pm	ECMWF
Fri 6	Overcast	23 / 33 °F	13%	13 mph SSW	3.5 ft	6:22 am · 6:50 pm	ECMWF
Sat 7	Overcast	29 / 31 °F	16%	10 mph NW	1.3 ft	7:17 am · 7:37 pm	ECMWF
Sun 8	Overcast	26 / 29 °F	10%	7 mph WSW	0.9 ft	8:04 am · 8:18 pm	ECMWF
Mon 9	Light snow	29 / 31 °F	9% · 0.02 in	6 mph S	0.5 ft	8:46 am · 8:55 pm	ECMWF
Tue 10	Light snow	30 / 35 °F	16% · 0.03 in	19 mph NW	2.1 ft	9:24 am · 9:29 pm	ECMWF

Each day comes from the best model covering this spot: regional ones first (HRRR and NBM in the U.S., AROME, ICON-EU), then ECMWF; day 16, NOAA GFS. Waves: Météo-France up to day 10, then ECMWF WAM, coarser and further offshore. High tides: our own tide calculation.

Today, every 3 hours

Time	12:00 am	3:00 am	6:00 am	9:00 am	12:00 pm	3:00 pm	6:00 pm	9:00 pm
Sky	Partly cloudy	Overcast	Overcast	Light drizzle	Light drizzle	Overcast	Snow	Light snow
Temperature	31°	33°	33°	34°	35°	35°	34°	31°
Chance of rain	0%	0%	0%	3%	18%	31%	87%	56%
Rain	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.02 in	0.00 in
Wind (mph)	5 WNW	8 NNW	10 N	12 NNE	13 NNE	13 NE	17 NNE	16 NNE
Humidity	92%	90%	89%	85%	80%	79%	82%	79%
UV	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Model	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF	ECMWF

Do the models agree?

Medium confidence

They broadly agree, but not quite on rain today: take it with some caution.

What 4 forecast models say for the next few days. The closer they are, the more reliable the forecast.

HighRainWind

Do the models agree? · High
High (°F)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	35°	31°	32°	35°	34°	35°	33°
AIFS	35°	31°	32°	37°	36°	32°	40°
GFS	35°	30°	33°	35°	35°	33°	32°
ICON	36°	31°	32°	34°	34°	32°	33°
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	high	medium

Do the models agree? · Rain
Rain	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	0.08 in	0.08 in	0	0	0	0	0
AIFS	0.09 in	0.03 in	0	0	0	0	0.02 in
GFS	0.02 in	0	0	0	0	0	0
ICON	0.07 in	0.09 in	0	0	0	0	0.02 in
Confidence	medium	medium	high	high	high	high	high

Do the models agree? · Wind
Wind (mph)	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF	1933	1732	1834	1627	1321	1016	815
AIFS	21	19	26	22	20	9	21
GFS	2025	1831	2442	2239	1731	1323	1525
ICON	2334	2233	2233	2131	1217	1522	1522
Confidence	high	high	medium	high	medium	high	low

Chance of rain from the ensemble models

Model	Today	Thu 29	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3
ECMWF (51 scenarios)	100%	84%	0%	0%	0%	7%	20%
GFS (GEFS, 31 scenarios)	90%	52%	3%	0%	0%	7%	14%

Each model's day runs midnight to midnight local time; models that reach fewer days are left blank. Rain: daily total. Wind: the day's highest average wind and, in small type, the strongest gust. Highlighted: values that stand out from the rest. The chance of rain comes from many runs of the same model with slightly different starting data.

Outlook

How the coming weeks and months compare with what is normal for the time of year. It is a trend, not a day-by-day forecast.

Next few weeks, compared with normal: much warmer, normal rain and a warmer sea.

Next 6 weeks

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea	Typical high / low
Nov 2 – Nov 8Nov 2–Nov 8	Well above +7.2 °F	Normal	Above +3.1 °F	—
Nov 9 – Nov 15Nov 9–Nov 15	Well above +8.3 °F	Normal	Above +3.2 °F	28° / 25°
Nov 16 – Nov 22Nov 16–Nov 22	Well above +8.8 °F	Normal	Above +2.7 °F	26° / 23°
Nov 23 – Nov 29Nov 23–Nov 29	Well above +9.4 °F	Normal	Above +2.0 °F	23° / 20°
Nov 30 – Dec 6Nov 30–Dec 6	Well above +9.7 °F	Normal	A bit above +1.3 °F	20° / 17°

Coming months

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea
November	Above +3.4 °F	Normal	A bit above +1.6 °F
December	Well above +8.8 °F	Normal	Normal 0.0 °F
January	Well above +8.5 °F	Normal	Normal 0.0 °F
February	Well above +6.1 °F	Normal	Normal 0.0 °F
March	Well above +6.1 °F	Normal	Normal 0.0 °F

Weeks: ECMWF 46-day (average of its scenarios), against the normal of the last 20 years for those dates. Months: ECMWF SEAS5. Rain: total against normal. The further ahead, the closer it gets to normal and the less detail it can give.

Churchill climate by monthClimate by month

Normal weather for each month (1991–2020 averages)

The best time to visit Churchill is in July: highs of 67 °F, about 8 rainy days a month and 9 hours of sunshine a day.

-5° -20°

JanJ
-3° -19°

FebF
8° -10°

MarM
24° 6°

AprA
38° 24°

MayM
55° 38°

JunJ
67° 49°

JulJ
65° 49°

AugA
52° 40°

SepS
37° 26°

OctO
18° 5°

NovN
2° -12°

DecD

Highs and lows
Monthly rainfall
Best time

Month	High	Low	Rain	Rainy daysDays	Sun (h/day)	Water
JanuaryJan	-5°	-20°	0.65 in	3	3.7	29°
FebruaryFeb	-3°	-19°	0.60 in	2	6.6	29°
MarchMar	8°	-10°	0.77 in	3	9.6	29°
AprilApr	24°	6°	0.78 in	4	11.3	30°
MayMay	38°	24°	1.36 in	7	9.8	30°
JuneJun	55°	38°	1.51 in	8	10.2	33°
JulyJul	67°	49°	2.41 in	8	9.0	41°
AugustAug	65°	49°	3.04 in	10	6.6	49°
SeptemberSep	52°	40°	2.79 in	9	4.0	46°
OctoberOct	37°	26°	1.91 in	8	2.4	39°
NovemberNov	18°	5°	1.28 in	5	2.8	32°
DecemberDec	2°	-12°	0.78 in	3	2.6	30°

Month	Water
Jan	29°
Feb	29°
Mar	29°
Apr	30°
May	30°
Jun	33°
Jul	41°
Aug	49°
Sep	46°
Oct	39°
Nov	32°
Dec	30°

Days: rainy days in the month. Sun: hours a day.

A normal year brings 17.87 in of rain on about 68 days and about 2,400 hours of sunshine.

1991–2020 averages. Highs, lows and rainfall: TerraClimate; rainy days (0.04 in or more): NASA POWER (MERRA-2); sunshine hours: estimated from solar radiation; water: NOAA OISST; waves (average height): ERA5, 2011–2020. Normals are not a forecast: any given year can turn out very different. Sources and licenses

Temperature

Now31 °Ffeels like 20 °F

Tomorrow21 / 31 °F

It's 31 °F now (feels like 20 °F). Today, 31 °F to 35 °F; tomorrow, 21 °F to 31 °F.

Chance of rain

Today 100% 0.08 in
Thu 29 84% 0.08 in
Fri 30 0%
Sat 31 0%
Sun 1 0%
Mon 2 7%
Tue 3 20%

Today the chance of rain reaches 100%, with 0.08 in in total. The next day with likely rain is Thursday 29: 84% and 0.08 in.

Recent rain: last 24 hours, 0.08 in; last 3 days, 0.08 in; last 7 days, 1.44 in.

Humidity and dew point

Humidity75%

Dew point24 °F

Humidity is 75% now and the dew point is 24 °F.

The dew point is the temperature at which the air becomes saturated: the higher it is, the heavier the air feels.

Visibility and fog

Now14 migood

Clouds98%

Visibility is good now (14 mi). No fog expected today.

UV index

Now0

Today's peak0low

Thu 29: 0 · Fri 30: 1 · Sat 31: 1

Index	Level	What to do
0–2	low	No special protection needed.
3–5	moderate	Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.
6–7	high	Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.
8–10	very high	Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.
11+	extreme	Avoid the sun between 11 am and 5 pm; protect yourself even if it is cloudy.

Reflection off water and sand adds radiation: protect yourself more on a boat or at the beach.

Barometric pressure

↗ Rising · now Anglers say fish bite less for a while
→ Steady Anglers expect normal activity
↘ Falling Anglers say fish feed more before the change

29.8030.0030.20 29.81

Rising now (+0.03 inHg in 3 hours). Over the next 48 hours: −0.26 inHg. Rising pressure: anglers say fish bite less for a while. Fast changes, either way, tend to affect fishing.

Air and pollen

Air qualityFair · 30

Saharan dustNo

Previous days

The weather over the last 30 days, as the models analyzed it. Tap a day to see it hour by hour.

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Tue 27	Partly cloudy	26 / 40 °F	0	11 mph SW
Mon 26	Overcast	25 / 29 °F	0	18 mph W
Sun 25	Snow	27 / 35 °F	0.23 in	34 mph NNW
Sat 24	Heavy snow	35 / 38 °F	1.13 in	31 mph E
Fri 23	Overcast	36 / 39 °F	0	14 mph NNE
Thu 22	Overcast	35 / 50 °F	0	12 mph SSW
Wed 21	Overcast	30 / 48 °F	0	11 mph SSW

Show all 30 days

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Tue 20	Light rain	33 / 39 °F	0.37 in	9 mph WSW
Mon 19	Light drizzle	32 / 46 °F	0.06 in	15 mph WSW
Sun 18	Heavy drizzle	33 / 40 °F	0.33 in	18 mph ENE
Sat 17	Drizzle	28 / 35 °F	0.02 in	14 mph SE
Fri 16	Overcast	27 / 31 °F	0	15 mph NW
Thu 15	Light snow	30 / 36 °F	0.04 in	17 mph NW
Wed 14	Light snow	31 / 40 °F	0.01 in	22 mph NW
Tue 13	Light drizzle	32 / 42 °F	0.06 in	18 mph SW
Mon 12	Partly cloudy	28 / 38 °F	0	16 mph SSW
Sun 11	Light snow	31 / 37 °F	0.02 in	15 mph NNE
Sat 10	Light snow	37 / 39 °F	0.08 in	14 mph NE
Fri 9	Light drizzle	37 / 42 °F	0.01 in	12 mph NE
Thu 8	Drizzle	38 / 41 °F	0.27 in	9 mph SE
Wed 7	Light drizzle	41 / 43 °F	0.13 in	12 mph NE
Tue 6	Heavy snow	35 / 42 °F	0.66 in	16 mph ESE
Mon 5	Heavy snow	33 / 41 °F	0.23 in	15 mph S
Sun 4	Snow	36 / 40 °F	0.35 in	17 mph NNW
Sat 3	Light drizzle	35 / 42 °F	0.03 in	10 mph NW
Fri 2	Overcast	39 / 46 °F	0	20 mph WNW
Thu 1	Light snow	41 / 45 °F	0.23 in	19 mph NW
Wed 30	Light rain	44 / 46 °F	0.34 in	19 mph NNE
Tue 29	Overcast	40 / 51 °F	0	11 mph E
Mon 28	Partly cloudy	45 / 56 °F	0	19 mph WSW

These are the models at the start of each day (ECMWF and GFS; waves from Météo-France), not readings from a weather station: there can be differences at specific spots.

Questions about the weather in ChurchillQuestions

What's the weather like today in Churchill?

Snow, from 31 °F to 35 °F, with a moderate breeze from the north-northeast (14 mph) and a 100% chance of rain.

Will it rain tomorrow in Churchill?

On Thursday 29 the chance of rain is 84% (0.08 in): snow.

How warm will it be this week?

Between a low of 21 °F and a high of 35 °F; the warmest day, Wednesday 28.

What's the UV index today?

It reaches 0 (low). No special protection needed.

Is the pressure rising or falling?

It's 30.09 inHg and rising: +0.15 inHg over the last 24 hours.

When is the best time to visit Churchill?

The best time to visit Churchill is in July: highs of 67 °F, about 8 rainy days a month and 9 hours of sunshine a day.

What is the weather like in Churchill in October?

In October, Churchill normally sees highs of 37 °F and lows of 26 °F, with about 8 rainy days (1.91 in for the month) and 2 hours of sunshine a day. The sea is around 39 °F. These are 1991–2020 averages.

What are the warmest and wettest months in Churchill?

The warmest is July, with average highs of 67 °F, and the coldest January, with lows of -20 °F. The wettest is August (3.04 in) and the driest, February.

More about Churchill today

Learn more

Weather: Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0, with the best model for each spot and lead time (NOAA HRRR and NBM in the U.S., Météo-France AROME, DWD ICON-EU, ECMWF IFS and NOAA GFS); ECMWF grid point 6.1 mi away. The comparison also uses ICON (DWD), AIFS (ECMWF) and ARPEGE (Météo-France). Outlook: ECMWF 46-day and SEAS5. Chance of rain from ensemble models (ECMWF, GEFS and NBM). UV, air quality and pollen: CAMS (Copernicus).

Forecast from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) with models from ECMWF, NOAA, Météo-France, DWD, Copernicus Marine and CAMS. Updated at 10:30 pm (local time).

Spotted a mistake? Tell us · Where the weather and sea data come from