Weather in Metchosin

14-day forecast · updated today, Thursday, October 29, at 12:55 am (PDT)

Now · heavy drizzle 46 °F

Feels like: 42 °F
Low / high: 41 / 50 °F
Rain: 36% · 0.11 in
Wind: 4 mph N

→ 29.95 inHg · steady

Today in Metchosin: light rain, 41 °F to 50 °F, with a 36% chance of rain (0.11 in) and a light breeze from the north (4 mph). Tomorrow, light drizzle, 44 °F to 48 °F and a 16% chance of rain. The warmest day of the week is Wednesday 4, at 51 °F. Next likely rain: Thursday 5 (22%).

Measured now at the airport

Esquimalt Harbor (CWPF), 5.6 mi away · 25 min ago

Visibility—

WeatherNothing to note

Temperature49 °F

Wind2 mph from the east-northeast

It's what the airport's weather station measured, not a forecast: on the coast, wind and fog can be different. Airports report every 30 or 60 minutes.

Airport METAR report, via NOAA's Aviation Weather Center (aviationweather.gov). Sources and licenses

Temperatures for the next 14 days

50° 41°
Today
48° 44°
Fri 30
48° 45°
Sat 31
49° 44°
Sun 1
49° 47°
Mon 2
50° 48°
Tue 3
51° 47°
Wed 4
50° 48°
Thu 5
50° 49°
Fri 6
50° 49°
Sat 7
52° 42°
Sun 8
54° 41°
Mon 9
54° 52°
Tue 10
53° 49°
Wed 11

Day by day

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind	Max wave	High tides	Model
Today · 29	Light rain	41 / 50 °F	36% · 0.11 in	11 mph NNE	1.0 ft	3:24 pm	HRRR + NBM
Fri 30	Light drizzle	44 / 48 °F	16% · 0.01 in	14 mph NE	0.6 ft	4:09 pm	NBM
Sat 31	Light drizzle	45 / 48 °F	4%	11 mph NE	0.4 ft	4:59 pm	NBM
Sun 1	Partly cloudy	44 / 49 °F	6%	6 mph ENE	0.9 ft	12:03 pm · 5:55 pm	NBM
Mon 2	Overcast	47 / 49 °F	11%	9 mph NE	1.2 ft	12:19 pm · 7:05 pm	NBM
Tue 3	Overcast	48 / 50 °F	9%	6 mph NE	1.2 ft	12:27 pm · 9:00 pm	NBM
Wed 4	Partly cloudy	47 / 51 °F	13%	7 mph NE	0.9 ft	12:32 pm	NBM
Thu 5	Overcast	48 / 50 °F	22% · 0.05 in	6 mph NE	0.9 ft	12:50 am · 12:40 pm	NBM
Fri 6	Overcast	49 / 50 °F	25% · 0.02 in	6 mph ESE	1.8 ft	2:42 am · 12:50 pm	NBM
Sat 7	Overcast	49 / 50 °F	36% · 0.28 in	8 mph E	2.3 ft	5:00 am · 12:58 pm	NBM
Sun 8	Light drizzle	42 / 52 °F	39% · 0.21 in	9 mph E	2.4 ft	1:00 pm	NBM + ECMWF
Mon 9	Overcast	41 / 54 °F	35%	15 mph NE	5.1 ft	1:02 pm	ECMWF
Tue 10	Light rain	52 / 54 °F	46% · 1.44 in	20 mph SE	7.2 ft	1:17 pm	ECMWF
Wed 11	Light drizzle	49 / 53 °F	51% · 0.26 in	9 mph S	2.5 ft	1:42 pm	ECMWF

Each hour comes from the best model for this spot: HRRR until Thursday 29 7:00 pm; then NBM until Sunday 8 6:00 pm; then ECMWF until Thursday 12 8:00 pm; then GFS.

Each day comes from the best model covering this spot: regional ones first (HRRR and NBM in the U.S., AROME, ICON-EU), then ECMWF; day 16, NOAA GFS. Waves: Météo-France up to day 10, then ECMWF WAM, coarser and further offshore. High tides: our own tide calculation.

Today, every 3 hours

Time	12:00 am	3:00 am	6:00 am	9:00 am	12:00 pm	3:00 pm	6:00 pm	9:00 pm
Sky	Heavy drizzle	Light drizzle	Overcast	Drizzle	Drizzle	Light rain	Light rain	Light drizzle
Temperature	46°	44°	42°	43°	48°	50°	46°	49°
Chance of rain	36%	21%	23%	20%	25%	36%	18%	16%
Rain	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.00 in	0.01 in
Wind (mph)	4 N	4 E	4 NNW	5 NNW	8 E	4 NW	3 NNE	11 NNE
Humidity	95%	92%	82%	89%	82%	69%	85%	87%
UV	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0
Model	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	HRRR	NBM

Do the models agree?

Medium confidence

They broadly agree, but not quite on rain tomorrow: take it with some caution.

What 6 forecast models say for the next few days. The closer they are, the more reliable the forecast.

HighRainWind

Do the models agree? · High
High (°F)	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF	47°	47°	53°	55°	53°	58°	57°
AIFS	48°	47°	50°	51°	49°	52°	52°
GFS	50°	49°	53°	53°	49°	56°	56°
ICON	51°	51°	54°	54°	49°	57°	58°
HRRR	50°	—	—	—	—	—	—
NBM	49°	48°	48°	49°	49°	50°	51°
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	medium	medium

Do the models agree? · Rain
Rain	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF	0.84 in	0.08 in	0.01 in	0	0	0	0
AIFS	0.26 in	0.17 in	0	0	0	0	0
GFS	0.08 in	0.11 in	0	0	0	0	0
ICON	0.13 in	0.02 in	0	0	0.02 in	0	0
HRRR	0.10 in	—	—	—	—	—	—
NBM	0.14 in	0.01 in	0	0	0	0	0
Confidence	high	medium	high	high	high	high	high

Do the models agree? · Wind
Wind (mph)	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF	917	817	616	314	215	411	719
AIFS	7	6	4	4	3	3	3
GFS	613	815	712	66	43	46	611
ICON	814	1016	712	69	69	510	59
HRRR	812	—	—	—	—	—	—
NBM	1115	1419	1115	67	911	68	78
Confidence	high	high	high	high	high	high	high

Chance of rain from the ensemble models

Model	Today	Fri 30	Sat 31	Sun 1	Mon 2	Tue 3	Wed 4
ECMWF (51 scenarios)	96%	52%	10%	12%	24%	20%	8%
GFS (GEFS, 31 scenarios)	100%	48%	16%	3%	16%	14%	6%
NBM (NOAA)	36%	16%	4%	6%	11%	9%	13%
Thunderstorm (NBM)	1%	3%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%

Each model's day runs midnight to midnight local time; models that reach fewer days are left blank. Rain: daily total. Wind: the day's highest average wind and, in small type, the strongest gust. Highlighted: values that stand out from the rest. The chance of rain comes from many runs of the same model with slightly different starting data.

Outlook

How the coming weeks and months compare with what is normal for the time of year. It is a trend, not a day-by-day forecast.

Next few weeks, compared with normal: warmer, normal rain and a slightly warmer sea.

Next 6 weeks

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea	Typical high / low
Nov 2 – Nov 8Nov 2–Nov 8	A bit above +1.3 °F	A bit below −43%	A bit above +1.1 °F	—
Nov 9 – Nov 15Nov 9–Nov 15	Above +4.3 °F	A bit above +30%	Above +1.8 °F	—
Nov 16 – Nov 22Nov 16–Nov 22	Above +2.9 °F	Normal	Above +2.2 °F	46° / 42°
Nov 23 – Nov 29Nov 23–Nov 29	Above +2.7 °F	Normal	Above +2.0 °F	44° / 40°
Nov 30 – Dec 6Nov 30–Dec 6	A bit above +2.3 °F	Normal	Above +1.8 °F	43° / 39°

Coming months

When	TemperatureTemp.	Rain	Sea
November	A bit above +1.8 °F	Normal	A bit above +1.4 °F
December	Above +3.2 °F	Normal	Above +2.2 °F
January	Above +3.1 °F	Normal	Above +2.7 °F
February	Above +2.7 °F	Normal	Above +2.5 °F
March	Above +3.4 °F	Normal	Above +3.1 °F

Weeks: ECMWF 46-day (average of its scenarios), against the normal of the last 20 years for those dates. Months: ECMWF SEAS5. Rain: total against normal. The further ahead, the closer it gets to normal and the less detail it can give.

Metchosin climate by monthClimate by month

Normal weather for each month (1991–2020 averages)

The best time to visit Metchosin is from July to August: highs of 71 °F to 71 °F, about 4 rainy days a month and 8 hours of sunshine a day.

43° 34°

JanJ
46° 35°

FebF
49° 37°

MarM
54° 40°

AprA
61° 45°

MayM
65° 49°

JunJ
71° 52°

JulJ
71° 52°

AugA
66° 49°

SepS
57° 43°

OctO
48° 38°

NovN
43° 34°

DecD

Highs and lows
Monthly rainfall
Best time

Month	High	Low	Rain	Rainy daysDays	Sun (h/day)	Water	Waves
JanuaryJan	43°	34°	7.29 in	19	1.4	46°	1.1 ft
FebruaryFeb	46°	35°	3.80 in	14	3.5	46°	1.1 ft
MarchMar	49°	37°	3.91 in	17	3.8	47°	1.0 ft
AprilApr	54°	40°	2.28 in	13	5.7	48°	0.9 ft
MayMay	61°	45°	1.35 in	10	6.9	50°	0.7 ft
JuneJun	65°	49°	0.96 in	8	7.3	52°	0.7 ft
JulyJul	71°	52°	0.60 in	4	8.6	53°	0.6 ft
AugustAug	71°	52°	1.04 in	4	7.7	53°	0.6 ft
SeptemberSep	66°	49°	1.52 in	7	6.0	52°	0.6 ft
OctoberOct	57°	43°	4.41 in	14	2.9	50°	0.8 ft
NovemberNov	48°	38°	7.28 in	19	1.5	49°	1.1 ft
DecemberDec	43°	34°	6.40 in	19	0.9	47°	1.2 ft

Month	Water	Waves
Jan	46°	1.1 ft
Feb	46°	1.1 ft
Mar	47°	1.0 ft
Apr	48°	0.9 ft
May	50°	0.7 ft
Jun	52°	0.7 ft
Jul	53°	0.6 ft
Aug	53°	0.6 ft
Sep	52°	0.6 ft
Oct	50°	0.8 ft
Nov	49°	1.1 ft
Dec	47°	1.2 ft

Days: rainy days in the month. Sun: hours a day.

A normal year brings 40.85 in of rain on about 147 days and about 1,700 hours of sunshine.

1991–2020 averages. Highs, lows and rainfall: TerraClimate; rainy days (0.04 in or more): NASA POWER (MERRA-2); sunshine hours: estimated from solar radiation; water: NOAA OISST; waves (average height): ERA5, 2011–2020. Normals are not a forecast: any given year can turn out very different. Sources and licenses

Temperature

Now46 °Ffeels like 42 °F

Tomorrow44 / 48 °F

It's 46 °F now (feels like 42 °F). Today, 41 °F to 50 °F; tomorrow, 44 °F to 48 °F.

Chance of rain

Today 36% 0.11 in
Fri 30 16% 0.01 in
Sat 31 4%
Sun 1 6%
Mon 2 11%
Tue 3 9%
Wed 4 13%

Today the chance of rain reaches 36%, with 0.11 in in total. The next day with likely rain is Thursday 5: 22% and 0.05 in.

Recent rain: last 24 hours, 0.00 in; last 3 days, 0.26 in; last 7 days, 1.00 in.

Humidity and dew point

Humidity95%

Dew point44 °F

Humidity is 95% now and the dew point is 44 °F. The temperature is very close to the dew point: fog may form.

The dew point is the temperature at which the air becomes saturated: the higher it is, the heavier the air feels.

Visibility and fog

Now4.4 mimoderate

Clouds97%

Visibility is moderate now (4.4 mi). No fog expected today.

UV index

Now0

Today's peak1low

Fri 30: 1 · Sat 31: 1 · Sun 1: 2

Index	Level	What to do
0–2	low	No special protection needed.
3–5	moderate	Hat, sunglasses and sunscreen around midday.
6–7	high	Sunscreen, hat and shade between 12 and 4 pm.
8–10	very high	Avoid the midday sun; reflection off the water adds to it.
11+	extreme	Avoid the sun between 11 am and 5 pm; protect yourself even if it is cloudy.

Reflection off water and sand adds radiation: protect yourself more on a boat or at the beach.

Barometric pressure

↗ Rising Anglers say fish bite less for a while
→ Steady · now Anglers expect normal activity
↘ Falling Anglers say fish feed more before the change

29.8029.9030.00 30.01

Steady now (−0.03 inHg in 3 hours). Over the next 48 hours: +0.07 inHg. Steady pressure: anglers expect normal activity. Fast changes, either way, tend to affect fishing.

Air and pollen

Air qualityFair · 22

Saharan dustNo

Previous days

The weather over the last 30 days, as the models analyzed it. Tap a day to see it hour by hour.

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Wed 28	Light drizzle	41 / 51 °F	0.12 in	9 mph SW
Tue 27	Light rain	44 / 54 °F	0.26 in	12 mph SW
Mon 26	Overcast	45 / 56 °F	0	10 mph N
Sun 25	Light rain	46 / 53 °F	0.43 in	10 mph NE
Sat 24	Heavy drizzle	41 / 47 °F	0.28 in	8 mph NE
Fri 23	Overcast	36 / 57 °F	0	4 mph NW
Thu 22	Light drizzle	39 / 56 °F	0.04 in	4 mph WSW

Show all 30 days

Day	Sky	Low / high	Rain	Max wind
Wed 21	Overcast	45 / 62 °F	0	4 mph N
Tue 20	Partly cloudy	37 / 62 °F	0	8 mph N
Mon 19	Overcast	43 / 58 °F	0	5 mph NNE
Sun 18	Overcast	41 / 58 °F	0	6 mph N
Sat 17	Drizzle	45 / 62 °F	0.12 in	14 mph WSW
Fri 16	Overcast	51 / 67 °F	0	10 mph WNW
Thu 15	Overcast	49 / 63 °F	0	6 mph N
Wed 14	Overcast	49 / 62 °F	0	6 mph N
Tue 13	Overcast	46 / 56 °F	0	4 mph SSW
Mon 12	Overcast	44 / 60 °F	0	4 mph WSW
Sun 11	Clear sky	44 / 62 °F	0	9 mph NNW
Sat 10	Light drizzle	44 / 58 °F	0.01 in	7 mph N
Fri 9	Drizzle	47 / 58 °F	0.21 in	13 mph WSW
Thu 8	Overcast	52 / 68 °F	0	8 mph SW
Wed 7	Overcast	48 / 66 °F	0	4 mph NNE
Tue 6	Overcast	49 / 64 °F	0	4 mph N
Mon 5	Overcast	49 / 68 °F	0	4 mph W
Sun 4	Overcast	52 / 67 °F	0	3 mph SSW
Sat 3	Overcast	54 / 69 °F	0	6 mph N
Fri 2	Light drizzle	54 / 65 °F	0.04 in	5 mph SW
Thu 1	Drizzle	52 / 60 °F	0.08 in	4 mph N
Wed 30	Overcast	44 / 62 °F	0	6 mph N
Tue 29	Light rain	49 / 62 °F	0.59 in	10 mph SW

These are the models at the start of each day (ECMWF and GFS; waves from Météo-France), not readings from a weather station: there can be differences at specific spots.

Questions about the weather in MetchosinQuestions

What's the weather like today in Metchosin?

Light rain, from 41 °F to 50 °F, with a light breeze from the north (4 mph) and a 36% chance of rain.

Will it rain tomorrow in Metchosin?

On Friday 30 the chance of rain is 16% (0.01 in): light drizzle.

How warm will it be this week?

Between a low of 41 °F and a high of 51 °F; the warmest day, Wednesday 4.

What's the UV index today?

It reaches 1 (low). No special protection needed.

Is the pressure rising or falling?

It's 29.95 inHg and steady: +0.13 inHg over the last 24 hours.

When is the best time to visit Metchosin?

The best time to visit Metchosin is from July to August: highs of 71 °F to 71 °F, about 4 rainy days a month and 8 hours of sunshine a day.

What is the weather like in Metchosin in October?

In October, Metchosin normally sees highs of 57 °F and lows of 43 °F, with about 14 rainy days (4.41 in for the month) and 3 hours of sunshine a day. The sea is around 50 °F. These are 1991–2020 averages.

What are the warmest and wettest months in Metchosin?

The warmest is August, with average highs of 71 °F, and the coldest January, with lows of 34 °F. The wettest is January (7.29 in) and the driest, July.

More about Metchosin today

Weather near Metchosin

Only places with a different forecast: spots a few miles apart share the same model cell and wouldn't add anything.

Learn more

Weather: Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0, with the best model for each spot and lead time (NOAA HRRR and NBM in the U.S., Météo-France AROME, DWD ICON-EU, ECMWF IFS and NOAA GFS); ECMWF grid point 8.3 mi away. The comparison also uses ICON (DWD), AIFS (ECMWF) and ARPEGE (Météo-France). Outlook: ECMWF 46-day and SEAS5. Chance of rain from ensemble models (ECMWF, GEFS and NBM). UV, air quality and pollen: CAMS (Copernicus).

Forecast from Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) with models from ECMWF, NOAA, Météo-France, DWD, Copernicus Marine and CAMS. Updated at 12:55 am (local time).

Spotted a mistake? Tell us · Where the weather and sea data come from